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NYC/PHL 1/25-27 potential Part III


NortheastPAWx

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First you are talking about temperatures on a 84 + hour prog. But since you are...with the surface being in the 20s we know that that would verbatim be ZR at that point and time.

However....we also know that temperatures are going to change as we get within 24 hrs of the event and that is when i would look at those type of features on the NAM....

Meanwhile what you can take away from the NAM is we have a western & amped system !whistle.gif

Not saying its accurate but what its showing....lets see if the GFS follows.....

im just discussing the model like everyone else is. verbatum, the low levels except the surface is torched. Doesn't mean its going to happen im just stating a fact.

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The NAM is too wrapped up thats for sure, as of now taking into account its typical bias at 84 hours a track just offshore seems likely.

Why would this be the case? Does it not look similar to solutions that the ECM showed at one point & time?

Did not the 18Z GFS come in more AMPED then its previous run?

So why is an amped version in error?

We do not have a strong -NAO

We do not have a strong -AO...

We do have a rather robust + PNA....

So what would support an offshore solution? What teleconnections ?

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I was going to ask you earlier-- do you favor a median track between the extreme west and east outliers? That should take it from about Hatteras to 50 miles east of ACY to just inside the BM.

I'm not SG but i believe that will be the eventual track.

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Why would this be the case? Does it not look similar to solutions that the ECM showed at one point & time?

Did not the 18Z GFS come in more AMPED then its previous run?

So why is an amped version in error?

We do not have a strong -NAO

We do not have a strong -AO...

We do have a rather robust + PNA....

So what would support an offshore solution? What teleconnections ?

Not saying I agree, but I think people believe this will follow a more eastern track given the so called 'kicker' in the Great Lakes.

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From Pro Met Alex Sosnowksi:

-- The storm could rank right up there with the Christmas Weekend Blizzard and could hit part of the same area, or different areas farther inland. No matter what, it looks like a "big deal."

Atmospheric Dynamics

The storm promises to be potent due to plenty of moisture and energy from a lingering large temperature contrast. The excess moisture slamming into the cold sea of air in the Northeast will yield intense precipitation.

A storm rolling southeastward along the Rockies this weekend will dip toward the Gulf of Mexico early next week. As it does, it will grab moisture from the relatively warm waters.

A temperature contrast from northwest to southeast will help provide the energy for a big storm in the East next week. An example of this contrast is the range in temperatures today with a low of minus 46 degrees in northern Minnesota to a high in the lower 80s in South Florida.

Meanwhile, the coldest air of the season so far will be parked over the Northeast, including many subzero low temperatures in northern New England.

It appears the jet stream, which is a river of air high in the atmosphere that guides weather systems along, will bend, allowing the storm to track up along or just offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard during the middle of next week.

Storm Track(s)

The key for what the weather will be in your area is the exact track of the storm.

A track along or just inland of the coast would bring rain over the eastern Carolinas and even a wintry mix into the I-95 corridor of the mid-Atlantic. This track would dump heavy snow, perhaps on the order of 1 to 2 feet, over the Appalachians. Snowfall rates would be intense with perhaps 1 to 3 inches per hour.

A track just off the coast would bring the heaviest snow to the I-95 cities and the beaches, as we have seen before, thus sparing the Appalachians the worst.

It is also possible the storm could swing out off the southern Atlantic coast, then hook back in over the Northeast with a more complex precipitation pattern.

No matter which way the storm tracks, it looks like big trouble for the Atlantic Seaboard next week, not only for the U.S., but all the way to Atlantic Canada.

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With strong southeast winds ongoing through a deep layer. Fortunately its only the NAM past 60.

There's actually a NE wind at the end of the run and the sfc freezing line goes roughly down I-76 to around Harrisburg, and then up to around the GWB and hugging the CT coast. Cold air is filtering down from snowcovered New England and Canada. Verbatim the snow line would go roughly down I-81 and there would be patches of sleet/freezing rain east of there. But without a doubt the coast is a soaking and likely warm rain as the low looks to head NNE.

I know it's the 84 hour NAM, but the intense and amplified low isn't eliminated whatsoever yet as a possibility.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_0z/etaloop.html

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jfk at 84hrs has winds ene, temp at 33.8 and the entire column is about or just above 0C, winds are either SE or S above the surface

jfk has the whole column from 825 down above freezing, with a peak of plus 2.4 at 950mb...this is all just moot, the nam is in hogwash mode past hr 60, but im just saying.

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00znam850mbTSLPUS084.gif

Low is moving & bombing quickly ENE from that position (if you loop it). You can also see the 0 line crashing on the N/W side of the low. As soon as the low outflanks you to the east, heights would crash to the east. If extrapolated I would say couple hours of rain for C/N NJ than a fairly quick change to heavy snow. Looks from about Allentown north west could be all snow, and east of I-95 could be dealing with rain longer, but overall most should be happy with the NAM.

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I would guess something very close to 12/25/02 or 12/26/10...inside the benchmark for sure....the lack of cold air though probably means this is a wraparound snow deal only for the coast.

So instead of snow-rain-snow or snow-rain we're talking rain-snow like Xmas 2002. That was an awesome storm most would love a repeat of-- 8 inches of snow with the wrap around.

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From Pro Met Alex Sosnowksi:

-- The storm could rank right up there with the Christmas Weekend Blizzard and could hit part of the same area, or different areas farther inland. No matter what, it looks like a "big deal."

Atmospheric Dynamics

The storm promises to be potent due to plenty of moisture and energy from a lingering large temperature contrast. The excess moisture slamming into the cold sea of air in the Northeast will yield intense precipitation.

A storm rolling southeastward along the Rockies this weekend will dip toward the Gulf of Mexico early next week. As it does, it will grab moisture from the relatively warm waters.

A temperature contrast from northwest to southeast will help provide the energy for a big storm in the East next week. An example of this contrast is the range in temperatures today with a low of minus 46 degrees in northern Minnesota to a high in the lower 80s in South Florida.

Meanwhile, the coldest air of the season so far will be parked over the Northeast, including many subzero low temperatures in northern New England.

It appears the jet stream, which is a river of air high in the atmosphere that guides weather systems along, will bend, allowing the storm to track up along or just offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard during the middle of next week.

Storm Track(s)

The key for what the weather will be in your area is the exact track of the storm.

A track along or just inland of the coast would bring rain over the eastern Carolinas and even a wintry mix into the I-95 corridor of the mid-Atlantic. This track would dump heavy snow, perhaps on the order of 1 to 2 feet, over the Appalachians. Snowfall rates would be intense with perhaps 1 to 3 inches per hour.

A track just off the coast would bring the heaviest snow to the I-95 cities and the beaches, as we have seen before, thus sparing the Appalachians the worst.

It is also possible the storm could swing out off the southern Atlantic coast, then hook back in over the Northeast with a more complex precipitation pattern.

No matter which way the storm tracks, it looks like big trouble for the Atlantic Seaboard next week, not only for the U.S., but all the way to Atlantic Canada.

Who in the blue hell is Alex Sosnowksi? He's gotta be trolling with a last name like that. Good god.

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jfk has the whole column from 825 down above freezing, with a peak of plus 2.4 at 950mb...this is all just moot, the nam is in hogwash mode past hr 60, but im just saying.

yes i posted that...and the winds at all levels except the surface at out of the south or se

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Who in the blue hell is Alex Sosnowksi? He's gotta be trolling with a last name like that. Good god.

I've actually heard this guy on the radio. He's affiliated with accuweather I believe. Cant say if he's any good, but he sounds like a robot. The hooker scenario made me laugh though-- that's one solution no one has really mentioned.

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There's actually a NE wind at the end of the run and the sfc freezing line goes roughly down I-76 to around Harrisburg, and then up to around the GWB and hugging the CT coast. Cold air is filtering down from snowcovered New England and Canada. Verbatim the snow line would go roughly down I-81 and there would be patches of sleet/freezing rain east of there. But without a doubt the coast is a soaking and likely warm rain as the low looks to head NNE.

I know it's the 84 hour NAM, but the intense and amplified low isn't eliminated whatsoever yet as a possibility.

http://www.meteo.psu...0z/etaloop.html

You would probably have to go west of 81 to find snow. East of 81 looks too warm. While surface could be NE 950 would be SE. Not worth over analyzing.

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mt holly looks to be on it....i like them, good office.

TUESDAY...AM EXPECTING A PERIOD OF SNOW IN WHAT ATTM LOOKS LIKE A

PRELIMINARY EVENT PRIOR TO THE LARGER EVENT "POTENTIAL" BEYOND

THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS COULD BE ADVISORY SNOWFALL... ALBEIT

LOW PROB POTENTIAL ATTM . 12Z/22 GFS HAS ABOUT .05 TO .15 WATER

EQUIVALENT AND BOTH 09Z AND 15Z/22 SREF HAVE PROBS OF 70-90 PCT

FOR .01 OR GREATER IN A 6 HR PERIOD AND WITH .1 TO .25 LIQUID

WATER EQUIV THOUGH WITH 0.2 INCH SPREAD. THE 00Z/22 NAEFS HAD .2

OVER ALL THE AREA WITH SLIGHT QPF SPREAD... AND A PROB OF AT LEAST

.2 IN THE 50 TO 65 PCT RANGE. POPS WERE CONSERVATIVELY RAISED

COMPROMISING 09Z SREF WITH THE PRIOR 09Z/22 KPHI FCST.

MIXED PCPN IS SHOWING UP IN THE FCST OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF

THE AREA AS PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND SFC TEMPS WARM. THE 12Z ECMWF

WAS MUCH WARMER THAN GFS GUIDANCE. TOOK A BLENDED COMPROMISE AS I

THINK THE ECMWF IS NOT SHOWING ENOUGH PCPN FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS

TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A COASTAL LOW...A NOR/EASTER...

AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

JUST HOW MUCH THIS STORM AFFECTS US IS LESS THAN CERTAIN AT THIS

EARLY TIME...BUT IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND

EAST-CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA WILL HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION

EFFECTS...AND PERHAPS SOME WIND AND COASTAL ISSUES AS WELL.

HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN CHANGES IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATIONS OF

PRESSURE FEATURES...THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND IMPLIED

PRECIPITATION...AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS WITH THE 12Z RUN. THE

GFS HAS DE-AMPLIFIED THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS MORE ZONAL, LEADING

TO TRACK A BIT LESS CLOSE TO OUR AREA, AND LESS OF AN INTRUSION OF

LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MOVED TOWARD...BUT

NOT QUITE TO...THE GFS SOLUTION. THE NET RESULT IS THAT, WITH

LOWISH CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, HIGH CHANCE PROBABILITIES

WILL BE KEPT EVERYWHERE. REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE, A CHANCE OF

SNOW WILL BE CONTINUED NORTHWEST...A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION

WILL BE USED FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN

ZONES...AND MOSTLY A CHANCE OF RAIN WAS USED FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND

SOUTHEAST.

THEN...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE RETAINED FOR THE AREA

WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM IN A NORTHWEST FLOW /

COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS CENTRAL

AND NORTH THURSDAY MORNING...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND

FLURRIES NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT

RESPECTIVELY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT A

SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS ADDED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A

VERY LOW CONFIDENCE LOW SHOWN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THE

GFS...WITH A LESS AGGRESSIVE DEPICTION ON THE ECMWF.

UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO TRY TO REFORM OVER THE EASTERN THIRD

OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IT IS WONDERED IF HPC

TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE

PERIOD...BUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE ACCEPTED FOR NOW.

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