ace0927 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM extrapolated would probably be rain to snow for most people with an earlier changeover the farther inland you get. how the hell do you figure this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM extrapolated would probably be rain to snow for most people with an earlier changeover the farther inland you get. There are certainly a plethora of solutions on the table at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The NAM could be shooting that right out to sea, its hard to say with that kicker coming, true...and if it doesnt wrap up as much as the nam, the kicker becomes a bigger force... ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 how the hell do you figure this? Winds go from south to northeast as the coastal gets cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 We were talking about this earlier-- basically, a strengthening storm just offshore would bring down the cold air from the north-- what there is of it anyway. I remember a similar situation happening back in March 1996. Inland areas switch over from rain to snow first and the cold air gradually moves in NW to SE. It's yet another possibility. The nam may scoot more east than many think if it continued beyond 84. It'll b interesting to see the remainder of the 0z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The NAM could be shooting that right out to sea, its hard to say with that kicker coming, http://www.nco.ncep....ef_l_loop.shtml Doesn't look like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Don't even look at the 60-84 solutions on the NAM, it is not a good model at that range. Today's ECMWF had an interesting solution indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The NAM could be shooting that right out to sea, its hard to say with that kicker coming, hey goose- it looks way to wrapped up to go east from there....to my very amateur eyes it looks like it would go west of the cities as opposed to east of them...but what do i know.... to me, the way the "kicker" is diving down might actually act as an amplifier of the trough forcing it to go even more negative....can this be possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hard to tell how this would extrapolate but doubt there would be any snow in coastal plain. Marine air floods in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 jan 23 2011 0z gfs, pretty big run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hard to tell how this would extrapolate but doubt there would be any snow in coastal plain. Marine air floods in. GGEM-like solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Don't even look at the 60-84 solutions on the NAM, it is not a good model at that range. Today's ECMWF had an interesting solution indeed. Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 the nam would result in very little snow except in well interior imho, to much warm air flooded in, but its nam past hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 jan 23 2010 0z gfs, pretty big run.... What happened? I can't remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GGEM-like solution? Maybe mor ukmet-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What happened? I can't remember hahaha... fixed my post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njblizzard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 jan 23 2010 0z gfs, pretty big run.... huh? what happended? i cant remember... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What happened? I can't remember really? i think, it was a 984 bomb up the susquehanna right to hudson bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 the nam would result in very little snow except in well interior imho, to much warm air flooded in. 84 hr temps on the NAM... 32 and under from just north of KPHL & points W....including NW NJ 33-40 Extreme SE PA to CNJ and SNJ to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 84 hr temps on the NAM... 32 and under from just north of KPHL & points W....including NW NJ 33-40 Extreme SE PA to CNJ and SNJ to NYC Cooler than I thought at that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 84 hr temps on the NAM... 32 and under from just north of KPHL & points W....including NW NJ 33-40 Extreme SE PA to CNJ and SNJ to NYC 850s plus 2 900-925 3.3 the only sub 925 temp is in the mtns and extreme ne pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 what needs to happen with the models to produce colder air and snow for the I-95 corridor and eastward? Move the coast west of the I-95 corridor ROFLMAO - very funny. Maybe this guy really thinks models produce cold air and snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just remember the 84 hour Nam for the system we had the early part of this week tried to rap up a low and drive it so far west Buckeye had an orgasm. 84 Nam = 384GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just remember the 84 hour Nam for the system we had the early part of this week tried to rap up a low and drive it so far west Buckeye had an orgasm. 84 Nam = 384GFS The NAM is too wrapped up thats for sure, as of now taking into account its typical bias at 84 hours a track just offshore seems likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just remember the 84 hour Nam for the system we had the early part of this week tried to rap up a low and drive it so far west Buckeye had an orgasm. 84 Nam = 384GFS haha if the 84 hr NAM equates to the 384 hr GFS...... what about the DGEX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 850s plus 2 900-925 3.3 the only sub 925 temp is in the mtns and extreme ne pa. First you are talking about temperatures on a 84 + hour prog. But since you are...with the surface being in the 20s we know that that would verbatim be ZR at that point and time. However....we also know that temperatures are going to change as we get within 24 hrs of the event and that is when i would look at those type of features on the NAM.... Meanwhile what you can take away from the NAM is we have a western & amped system ! Not saying its accurate but what its showing....lets see if the GFS follows..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Shouldn't take the NAM's temps literally at 84 hr., but with the freezing line that close to Philly and 850s +2 and lowering from the west, I don't think it's as bad as the GGEM or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The NAM is too wrapped up thats for sure, as of now taking into account its typical bias at 84 hours a track just offshore seems likely. I was going to ask you earlier-- do you favor a median track between the extreme west and east outliers? That should take it from about Hatteras to 50 miles east of ACY to just inside the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 850s plus 2 900-925 3.3 the only sub 925 temp is in the mtns and extreme ne pa. With strong southeast winds ongoing through a deep layer. Fortunately its only the NAM past 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 haha if the 84 hr NAM equates to the 384 hr GFS...... what about the DGEX? Landfill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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