A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Its a shame we have no means to lock in the cold, we'll see how guidance trends tonight perhaps our high will hold a bit longer coinciding with the ideal track. Stranger things have happened the last year. Seems like it wants to snow... We've been talking about the possibility of the cold holding in longer thanks to the extensive snow cover. It's a possibility. I think we want the high to move out more quickly to keep the SE winds at bay. A offshore storm track can take care of the rest-- though it would be nice to have a recharge on the Arctic air. Honestly, we cant get too greedy though with the way the winter has gone, and it looks like the block will be stronger than ever by the beginning of February, so a little break wouldnt hurt. Just this sort of thing happened around the same time in Jan 1994. And then you saw how Feb 1994 turned out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM through 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 any key differences yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 . Seems like it wants to snow... 83" of snow in the last 14 months in our neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 0z NAM looking very amped...probably not good for I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 We've been talking about the possibility of the cold holding in longer thanks to the extensive snow cover. It's a possibility. I think we want the high to move out more quickly to keep the SE winds at bay. A offshore storm track can take care of the rest-- though it would be nice to have a recharge on the Arctic air. Honestly, we cant get too greedy though with the way the winter has gone, and it looks like the block will be stronger than ever by the beginning of February, so a little break wouldnt hurt. Just this sort of thing happened around the same time in Jan 1994. And then you saw how Feb 1994 turned out There is no snow cover over the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Why do you guys keep telling him, he only asks the same exact questions every single day. He must have extreme short memory, because he doesn't learn a frigging thing. Sorry, I split time between the NE thread and here so I didn't realize he asks the same questions over and over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 0z NAM looking very amped...probably not good for I-95 A bit more so than 18z, perhaps closer to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Sorry, I split time between the NE thread and here so I didn't realize he asks the same questions over and over. That wasn't a shot at you man, just saying in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Man, the NAM looks like the GGEM. Who knows if its the NAM being stupid like it can be. However, it may correct in the last few frames here. Here comes that kicker and the new HP out of canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Is there any possibility the storm slows down enough to possibly phase with the energy that's supposed to be the kicker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Is there any possibility the storm slows down enough to possibly phase with the energy that's supposed to be the kicker? I was thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 May have trouble gaining latitude. Closed off with kicker coming in. A different wrinkle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 May have trouble gaining latitude. Closed off with kicker coming in. A different wrinkle At 84 hr. the 0c 850 line is in far northern PA, but 850s look like they are crashing in from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 May have trouble gaining latitude. Closed off with kicker coming in. A different wrinkle if you look at the 850mb charts, this isnt so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 As the low cranks, the winds go from south to northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike_D Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Is there any possibility the storm slows down enough to possibly phase with the energy that's supposed to be the kicker? Thats what the GGEM and UKMET did yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I was thinking the same thing. it doesnt appear the NAM has teh kicker which is why its so wrapped up so far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 There is no snow cover over the ocean. It wouldnt matter if the wind had a northerly component But that remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 what needs to happen with the models to produce colder air and snow for the I-95 corridor and eastward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 then next frame.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM extrapolated would probably be rain to snow for most people with an earlier changeover the farther inland you get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It would most likely be rain to a foot of snow for the big cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 what needs to happen with the models to produce colder air and snow for the I-95 corridor and eastward? Move the coast west of the I-95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Is there any possibility the storm slows down enough to possibly phase with the energy that's supposed to be the kicker? I've read about that as a possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM extrapolated would probably be rain to snow for most people with an earlier changeover the farther inland you get. Yeah, no doubt it starts as rain. Question is when any changeover would occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 but then you look at the hr of those frames......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The NAM could be shooting that right out to sea, its hard to say with that kicker coming, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 storm mode? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM extrapolated would probably be rain to snow for most people with an earlier changeover the farther inland you get. It would most likely be rain to a foot of snow for the big cities We were talking about this earlier-- basically, a strengthening storm just offshore would bring down the cold air from the north-- what there is of it anyway. I remember a similar situation happening back in March 1996. Inland areas switch over from rain to snow first and the cold air gradually moves in NW to SE. It's yet another possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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