TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 srefs at 87. lot of spread/leaning members to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 the 2m temps, they have cooled a little fro m15z, looks like freezing line runs along 95, not such good news for the island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 850 temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 totally different pac setup with that storm, not sure of the atlantic. doesnt show up on cips either it wasn't meant for an analog towards the pattern, but more towards how i think placement of snow amts could look if things stay the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12Z analogs based on the GFS Gulf Coast setup at 72 hours... http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=CENT&model=GFS212&fhr=072&flg=new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 here is 87 which improves but I have never looked at this so not sure how accurate. at both 78 and 87 the 2m o line is i-95 and 850s are cold, hard to tell more than that this far out with the srefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Was just doing some research online and I came across what I believe to be a close analogue to the upcoming storm in terms of storm development prior to the actual impact of the system (next 66-84 hours essentially). I will post the edited maps and do some analysis, but you guys are going to have to figure out which storm I am using for the analogue. Again, not sure what happens after 66-84 hours (neither do the current models) with the upcoming storm so I will compare prior storm cyclogenesis and the midweek system at the same range. Here is the analogue storm first frame: Note the positive tilt of the trof, the energy in the base of the trof, and another s/w in the PJ coming thru the Great Lakes. Also of note is the PNA ridging and more energy into South Central Canada. Now let's compare that to the 18Z GFS at 72 hours: Again, note some of the similarities.....the amplifying positively tilted trof (and location), the energy in the base of the trof over the Gulf States, and another piece of vorticity up near the Great Lakes with more energy behind in South Central Canada. We also have the PNA ridge here, slightly stronger. The 18Z NAM at the same hour (72) shows essentially a similar setup for all intents and purposes: Trof is trying to go negative tilt towards the base, but essentially we have the same features as noted above. Eerie similarities in the models and the analogue, eh? Now let's jump ahead 12 hours with our analogue system and take a look at the surface and H5 features and how the system develops: We see the energy digging into the base of the trof is causing the tilt to go negative once past the Miss River. Same wave swinging thru the GL and the low pressure popping off the SE Coast. Now compare this to 12 hours later on the 18Z GFS (84hrs): Very similar setup aloft indeed if you ask me......vorticity has bottomed out in the trof causing in to go negative tilt past the Miss River. The other wave is evident swinging thru the GL and the interior Northeast. PNA ridge is still here, and the energy in South Central Canada seems to match up fairly decent. The NAM at 18Z/84hrs is again very similar: Again, note the tilt to the trof, the two separate vorticities, and that energy coming into South Central Canada North of Wisconsin. Strikingly similar to my eyes, almost as close to the analogue setup as you can get, all things considered. Thereafter 72 hrs or so, our current guidance starts to head different directions with the storm, but the development leading up to the evolution of the system caught my eyes when perusing old data this evening. Anyone want to take a gander as which system this may be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Was just doing some research online and I came across what I believe to be a close analogue to the upcoming storm in terms of storm development prior to the actual impact of the system (next 66-84 hours essentially). I will post the edited maps and do some analysis, but you guys are going to have to figure out which storm I am using for the analogue. Again, not sure what happens after 66-84 hours (neither do the current models) with the upcoming storm so I will compare prior storm cyclogenesis and the midweek system at the same range. Here is the analogue storm first frame: Note the positive tilt of the trof, the energy in the base of the trof, and another s/w in the PJ coming thru the Great Lakes. Also of note is the PNA ridging and more energy into South Central Canada. Now let's compare that to the 18Z GFS at 72 hours: Again, note some of the similarities.....the amplifying positively tilted trof (and location), the energy in the base of the trof over the Gulf States, and another piece of vorticity up near the Great Lakes with more energy behind in South Central Canada. We also have the PNA ridge here, slightly stronger. The 18Z NAM at the same hour (72) shows essentially a similar setup for all intents and purposes: Trof is trying to go negative tilt towards the base, but essentially we have the same features as noted above. Eerie similarities in the models and the analogue, eh? Now let's jump ahead 12 hours with our analogue system and take a look at the surface and H5 features and how the system develops: We see the energy digging into the base of the trof is causing the tilt to go negative once past the Miss River. Same wave swinging thru the GL and the low pressure popping off the SE Coast. Now compare this to 12 hours later on the 18Z GFS (84hrs): Very similar setup aloft indeed if you ask me......vorticity has bottomed out in the trof causing in to go negative tilt past the Miss River. The other wave is evident swinging thru the GL and the interior Northeast. PNA ridge is still here, and the energy in South Central Canada seems to match up fairly decent. The NAM at 18Z/84hrs is again very similar: Again, note the tilt to the trof, the two separate vorticities, and that energy coming into South Central Canada North of Wisconsin. Strikingly similar to my eyes, almost as close to the analogue setup as you can get, all things considered. Thereafter 72 hrs or so, our current guidance starts to head different directions with the storm, but the development leading up to the evolution of the system caught my eyes when perusing old data this evening. Anyone want to take a gander as which system this may be? January 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 January 2000 WINNER!! Wow, that was fast! Wish I had a prize. Care to do any comparisons? Play devil's advocate and point out major differences? Seems they have some things in common thru the evolution of the system before going many different directions after 78 hrs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 indeed some eery similarities there...I would take another Jan 2000 in this set-up in a second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 yeah, thats jan 2000 and its been on the cips for a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Unfortunately this would be less cold air in place with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Unfortunately this would be less cold air in place with this event. I'd say so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 when will the next PBP's start rolling in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 There was 4.7.82 Blizzard warning actually for around a foot of snow then the 4.19.83 which gave 2.5-4.0 city wide In Brooklyn I witnessed snow on 10.19.72, and on 10.10.79 On 10.4.87 I only had to drive north of the tapanzee to find myself in snow, even sleet in hicksville that day That April 19, 1983 snowfall was the latest accumulation ever at JFK-- about 2 inches there. We got about 10 inches on April 6, 1982. There's been quite a few good April snowfalls-- the latest significant one was April 7, 2003 when we got 8 inches. I did a study on this awhile back and we average an inch of snow in April every three years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 WINNER!! Wow, that was fast! Wish I had a prize. Care to do any comparisons? Play devil's advocate and point out major differences? Seems they have some things in common thru the evolution of the system before going many different directions after 78 hrs or so. Huh? I mentioned Jan 2000 about 3 hours ago lol. We had 4-6" here and then a changeover..... no changeover and heavy snow in DC and the Carolinas. It's a decent analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 when will the next PBP's start rolling in? Euro PBP will be around 1 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 when will the next PBP's start rolling in? nam is running now only out to 30 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Euro PBP will be around 1 AM. The guy must be too lazy to look at the other models lol. At any rate, because of there being less cold air, the storm looks like it might be more of a blend of Jan 2000 plus that storm Tombo mentioned (Feb 2001). BTW SG, those analogs were all from the 80s and early 90s-- should tell you what kind of pattern we are dealing with right now lol. The best case scenario is the last analog on the list (Jan 1987)..... that one brought a sizeable snowfall both inland and to the coast. But it's the lowest analog on the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 21Z RSM 87 hours. Supressed. Good chance the RSM's are supressing the sref mean too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The guy must be too lazy to look at the other models lol. At any rate, because of there being less cold air, the storm looks like it might be more of a blend of Jan 2000 plus that storm Tombo mentioned (Feb 2001). BTW SG, those analogs were all from the 80s and early 90s-- should tell you what kind of pattern we are dealing with right now lol. The best case scenario is the last analog on the list (Jan 1987)..... that one brought a sizeable snowfall both inland and to the coast. But it's the lowest analog on the list. Its a shame we have no means to lock in the cold, we'll see how guidance trends tonight perhaps our high will hold a bit longer coinciding with the ideal track. Stranger things have happened the last year. Seems like it wants to snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 21Z RSM 87 hours. Supressed. Good chance the RSM's are supressing the sref mean too with the kicker that s being shown on almost every model this is a very viable solution..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Its a shame we have no means to lock in the cold, we'll see how guidance trends tonight perhaps our high will hold a bit longer coinciding with the ideal track. Stranger things have happened the last year. Seems like it wants to snow... there is some good disco a few pages back about the high moving out quick and actually helping. check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 with the kicker that s being shown on almost every model this is a very viable solution..... Yip. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 there is some good disco a few pages back about the high moving out quick and actually helping. check it out. thanks trials. glad to have you posting here more recently. were you at eastern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Euro PBP will be around 1 AM. Why do you guys keep telling him, he only asks the same exact questions every single day. He must have extreme short memory, because he doesn't learn a frigging thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 it's 9:25pm and mt. holly has already busted too high with their overnight low in middlesex county. forecast low of 11. it's currently 9 F i'd post this in an obs thread but there isnt any Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 with the kicker that s being shown on almost every model this is a very viable solution..... seems to be a bit of a trend the gfs keyed in on initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 thanks trials. glad to have you posting here more recently. were you at eastern? glad to be here. Nope, a buddy of mine told me. i tried to find the eastern page but its down, I guess it doesn't exist anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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