jm1220 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah, Im thinking this thing does bow back but probably not enough to be anywhere near the inlad solutions we have seen and I still think a stronger storm will produce snow in the big cities, albeit wet. Jeez, it snowed in the snowicane last year and no one thought that could happen. Looking forward to 00z tonight! The snow was on a NW wind, not easterly. In fact, almost immediately once the wind shifted to NNW at my house, the rain switched to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I agree with you a 100% here. Way too much weenie wishcasting going on here about dynamic cooling and the like somehow magically producing snow. The fact really is there that even if the low moves west its still mainly a long cold rain event. I've seen more bittercasting than wishcasting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The snow was on a NW wind, not easterly. In fact, almost immediately once the wind shifted to NNW at my house, the rain switched to snow. ya that looked really awful for the coast at first but in the cold sector of the storm IIRC it was pretty cold in the low to mid 20's. I was up in syracuse and after a 16in thump the temp went way up to 38 and it was drizzling. Such a weird storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I agree with you a 100% here. Way too much weenie wishcasting going on here about dynamic cooling and the like somehow magically producing snow. The fact really is there that even if the low moves west its still mainly a long cold rain event. If you think dynamic and evaporative cooling don't help borderline thermal profiles create a snow profile, then I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 bittercasting This is a new one. At least to me. Well the normal style winter is apon us here in the Philly region what we should normally expect to see which is Snow N/W and Mix near and S/E of the City and even rain. The return to normal winter storms finally came back after an almost epic run from last winter into this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The snow was on a NW wind, not easterly. In fact, almost immediately once the wind shifted to NNW at my house, the rain switched to snow. Completely different synoptic situation though. And that was perhaps the most amazing storm (in the sense of being rare-- although the Xmas day after storm could give a run for its money). If you remember, we were actually snowing heavily on a southerly wind with that storm-- a testament to what cold air can do when its wrapped up into a storm's circulation. Next week's storm is a pedestrian coastal which would probably feature a changeover for the coast-- whether its from snow to rain to snow or just snow to rain, we dont know at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The snow was on a NW wind, not easterly. In fact, almost immediately once the wind shifted to NNW at my house, the rain switched to snow. wasn't comparing the setups, I was just saying do not assume something unless it comes and goes and doesnt happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If you think dynamic and evaporative cooling don't help borderline thermal profiles create a snow profile, then I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn. Some people obviously dont know what dynamic cooling is or they have very short memories. Ive seen it do some strange things-- including snowing on Montauk while raining inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This is a new one. At least to me. Well the normal style winter is apon us here in the Philly region what we should normally expect to see which is Snow N/W and Mix near and S/E of the City and even rain. The return to normal winter storms finally came back after an almost epic run from last winter into this winter. Normal? Lol, please dont make me laugh. If you looked at the entire climate history, then you would realize there is no such thing as "normal." Just because you and I grew up with certain kinds of winter weather, doesnt mean that's "normal." 30 years isnt even enough to define "normal." Go back to what weather was like pre 1950 when we had just as long a stretch of severe winters and when you combine all the data then perhaps you can get an inkling of what "normal" might be. And even then, the dataset isnt large enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 KNYC 96 hours Skew-T. There is the warm layer at 925 but also note the direction of the winds and how much room there is to wetbulb. If there was precip and vv, this would probably be pretty isothermal from 850 and below be a heavy wet snow. Problem is the GFS has light qpf at this hour if anything, so its all speculation. Nothing more than some very high thin cirrus with that sounding...there is a storm? If thats a dry slot, the sun will be out unless the surface is too foggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 i honestly would dread to be a meteorologist having to forecast this storm if the gfs and euro ens tracks are the final tracks. Basically you are relying on dynamics to bring the cold air in and snow, sounds like a high bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 i honestly would dread to be a meteorologist having to forecast this storm if the gfs and euro ens tracks are the final tracks. Basically you are relying on dynamics to bring the cold air in and snow, sounds like a high bust. Yep, I agree completely. This far out in the game, there is no way of telling if there are enough dynamics to bring down the heavy snow especially off the coast. Usually dynamics and mesoscale banding are the late things looked out in a secure forecast within 24 hours of an event. A lot of wishcasting going on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 i honestly would dread to be a meteorologist having to forecast this storm if the gfs and euro ens tracks are the final tracks. Basically you are relying on dynamics to bring the cold air in and snow, sounds like a high bust. It would be entertaining to see them try to do it though. I mean, each storm has its issues but this one especially so. I remember many situations when we were forecast to get a significant amount of snow and the dynamics didnt work out-- and a few that went in the reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Normal? Lol, please dont make me laugh. If you looked at the entire climate history, then you would realize there is no such thing as "normal." Just because you and I grew up with certain kinds of winter weather, doesnt mean that's "normal." 30 years isnt even enough to define "normal." Go back to what weather was like pre 1950 when we had just as long a stretch of severe winters and when you combine all the data then perhaps you can get an inkling of what "normal" might be. And even then, the dataset isnt large enough. Understandable, but still my point is sort of valid as to what my lifetime has been like. Not sure how old you are as i will be turning 32 in just over a month. So i am used to the typical Mix issue. But yes your point is very strong and valid also. So no complaints from me towards your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Understandable, but still my point is sort of valid as to what my lifetime has been like. Not sure how old you are as i will be turning 32 in just over a month. So i am used to the typical Mix issue. But yes your point is very strong and valid also. So no complaints from me towards your post. 5 years older than you, and I had the same experiences as you during the infamous snowdrought lol. I remember being more interested in reading about how the weather patterns used to be rather than caring about current weather in the 80s and early 90s. That solar influence back then really wrecked us. It felt like each year (summer, winter, whatever) was warmer than the last. Im really not sure what "normal" is-- except to say that I picture a typical winter having a combination of different things-- some cutters, some apps runners, a coastal hugger here and there and 1 or 2 "classic" noreasters. So a nice mix. If we had a storm a week for the whole winter, we could have 3 of each.... 3 cutters, 3 apps runners, 3 coastal huggers and 3 classic noreasters between December and March. Unfortunately Mother Nature and Old Man Winter are rarely that even handed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Nothing more than some very high thin cirrus with that sounding...there is a storm? If thats a dry slot, the sun will be out unless the surface is too foggy. was using to the show the warm layer, didn't say it showed any type of storm, etc etc. Not sure of your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 i honestly would dread to be a meteorologist having to forecast this storm if the gfs and euro ens tracks are the final tracks. Basically you are relying on dynamics to bring the cold air in and snow, sounds like a high bust. yup, nothing fun about this. hopefully the signal breaks one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 5 years older than you, and I had the same experiences as you during the infamous snowdrought lol. I remember being more interested in reading about how the weather patterns used to be rather than caring about current weather in the 80s and early 90s. That solar influence back then really wrecked us. It felt like each year (summer, winter, whatever) was warmer than the last. Im really not sure what "normal" is-- except to say that I picture a typical winter having a combination of different things-- some cutters, some apps runners, a coastal hugger here and there and 1 or 2 "classic" noreasters. So a nice mix. If we had a storm a week for the whole winter, we could have 3 of each.... 3 cutters, 3 apps runners, 3 coastal huggers and 3 classic noreasters between December and March. Unfortunately Mother Nature and Old Man Winter are rarely that even handed. You worded that very well and i agree with what you said, some i guess even myself have become overwhelmed with 1993 1996 and other winter and especially last winter here at least it puts the snow goggles on and we have ourselves SNOW EYES that we often overlook other factoids of winter. But hopefully we can keep a long stretch of winters of good snows for almost all of if not all of our fellow members to enjoy for years to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'll say this. We have a nice base here on the South Shore A drive to take my daughter to CW post made me marvel at the several mile difference from South to North. Whatever this week's weather, anything added to it will enhance Long Island's winter wonderland appearance. I am here this weekend instead of my house in the Catskills because there is more snow here. Of course we want all the storms to be frozen...I can only imagine what the next 10 weeks will bring. Record lows, a frozen Hudson river. One thing is for sure, it will be a roller coaster. One model run..euphoria next model run depression Only to have this cycle repeat itself until the inevitable begins. That's the fun in it. In the summer I'm looking for severe thunderstorms that are training and that have hail embedded in them. Now, snow , lots of it and potentially record breaking lows. Given how potentially cold the oceans will be, can this help us in a borderline situation in early to mid April? Is there some here who can point me to the setup where around April 19th, 1983 there was a WSW for NYC and we indeed had snow. Love to recount those details...Can;t forget that April 19th, 1983 and of course seeing it snow in Brooklyn on May 9th, 1977 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmaster Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I witnessed the 1983 April storm in Hoboken and in the May 1977 storm, we had 8" in Framingham, MA - both amazing events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Normal? Lol, please dont make me laugh. If you looked at the entire climate history, then you would realize there is no such thing as "normal." Just because you and I grew up with certain kinds of winter weather, doesnt mean that's "normal." 30 years isnt even enough to define "normal." Go back to what weather was like pre 1950 when we had just as long a stretch of severe winters and when you combine all the data then perhaps you can get an inkling of what "normal" might be. And even then, the dataset isnt large enough. I've for a long time argued that we should use a much longer base period and started a thread (link) on this subject. Now that we have good records for most cities going back at least to the 1930's, are we still using 30 year means? As 'ORH_wxman' correctly pointed out in another thread back on Eastern, a 30 year period can easily encompass a warm or cold decadal period. Next year, when they switch to 1981-2010 I expect New York City to be below-normal temperature-wise most winters and above-normal for snow. Global warming; problem solved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Right now, using DT's way of forecasting the events recently...(which I like)....i'd go with this call for the NYC/NE NJ area : 1-3" : 20 % chance 4-7" : 50% chance 8-12" : 15% chance 13-18" : 10% chance 19"+ : 5% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I witnessed the 1983 April storm in Hoboken and in the May 1977 storm, we had 8" in Framingham, MA - both amazing events. Do you mean April 7, 1982? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Do you mean April 7, 1982? There was 4.7.82 Blizzard warning actually for around a foot of snow then the 4.19.83 which gave 2.5-4.0 city wide In Brooklyn I witnessed snow on 10.19.72, and on 10.10.79 On 10.4.87 I only had to drive north of the tapanzee to find myself in snow, even sleet in hicksville that day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 just looking over past snowfalls. I think this is a good snow accum analog map. I remember this storm, it was solely driven by dynamics the changeover, plus elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
al79philly Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 just looking over past snowfalls. I think this is a good snow accum analog map. I remember this storm, it was solely driven by dynamics the changeover, plus elevation That was an amazing storm. Was in Villanova, PA at the time. Forecasts called for heavy rain ending in the late afternoon as a coating or so of snow. Around 11 AM, heavy rain turned to heavy snow. We had a foot on the ground by 6 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That was an amazing storm. Was in Villanova, PA at the time. Forecasts called for heavy rain ending in the late afternoon as a coating or so of snow. Around 11 AM, heavy rain turned to heavy snow. We had a foot on the ground by 6 PM. yup likewise here, we had about 8 or so, Hvy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 just looking over past snowfalls. I think this is a good snow accum analog map. I remember this storm, it was solely driven by dynamics the changeover, plus elevation Great find. Link to Ray's Archive of the storm. http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/2001/05-Feb-01.html If you look at the 850 maps and surface this is a pretty close analog to the potential storm for next week. And if I had to guess on the ultimate outcome something like this sounds about right. Some snow in the cities, little east of them, and more west/higher elevation. You can even see on the 18z GFS at first the storm has no ambient cold air to work with, but once it nears out latitude it begings to entrain true cold are from the NW into it. Possibly a mix/wet snow/rain to snow scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That was an amazing storm. Was in Villanova, PA at the time. Forecasts called for heavy rain ending in the late afternoon as a coating or so of snow. Around 11 AM, heavy rain turned to heavy snow. We had a foot on the ground by 6 PM. your elev up there in nova helps you. I work just up from there by cabrini college, its elev is 500 ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Great find. Link to Ray's Archive of the storm. http://www.njfreeway.../05-Feb-01.html If you look at the 850 maps and surface this is a pretty close analog to the potential storm for next week. And if I had to guess on the ultimate outcome something like this sounds about right. Some snow in the cities, little east of them, and more west/higher elevation. You can even see on the 18z GFS at first the storm has no ambient cold air to work with, but once it nears out latitude it begings to entrain true cold are from the NW into it. Possibly a mix/wet snow/rain to snow scenario. totally different pac setup with that storm, not sure of the atlantic. doesnt show up on cips either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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