MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 large swatch of .75 to 1 liquid over the big cities and about 75 miles to the nw of there. More precip up towards cape and boston as it typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well, the ensemble mean precip is a heck of a lot better for everyone than the operational run, that is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18z GEFS post the next frame too. there is more through 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 post the next frame too. there is more through 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12/26 Dejavu all over again.......Maybe not snow for the big cities......But big storm......Yes west! These are the kinds of post that can get one five posted. The ensembles on both the GFS and ECM hint at closer track coast, but enough to maybe give the cities wet snow, but right we have varied solutions, so taking a trend to the west or east to the bank could hurt you until we get closer to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 And for those worried about the high pressure sliding off the coast. Look at the High now situated over Ontario. What an amazing turn of events today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 No worries...this will be trending back west starting with the 0z tonight...book it Strongly agree here..If heavy precip was over the cities with a 980mb on the benchmark im sure that would be a heavy wet snow. Whats funny is everyone was throwing out calls yesterday based on the euro inland flooding disaster, now most if not all modes are east of the BM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Njwinter Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I remember a few days ago the models were showing a long duration event. Is that still on the table? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 FWIW - NANTUCKET 54NM Southeast of Nantucket - water temp. 43.5 F, this is why you don't want a due east flow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 And for those worried about the high pressure sliding off the coast. Look at the High now situated over Ontario. What an amazing turn of events today. the low level warmth is still an issue on the ens mean for the cities east. The 925 temp is above 0 at the start of the event then falls to 0 for the middle part of the event then below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 These are the kinds of post that can get one five posted. The ensembles on both the GFS and ECM hint at closer track coast, but enough to maybe give the cities wet snow, but right we have varied solutions, so taking a trend to the west or east to the bank could hurt you until we get closer to the storm. Studying the models provided by some good posters, will get me five posted for coming to a partial solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the low level warmth is still an issue on the ens mean for the cities east. The 925 temp is above 0 at the start of the event then falls to 0 for the middle part of the event then below. If this starts off as rain and changes to snow, that’s way better than the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If this starts off as rain and changes to snow, that’s way better than the opposite. granted it would prob change once hvr precip got going, but im just throwing it out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Hi Tom I agree too many folks are envisioning heavy precip and vertical motion overcoming the warm boundary layer. I will be very surprised if we don't see a trend west on the models with boundary layer issues for at the very least NYC/PHL and Long Island. This has all the earmarks of an old time North and West of the big cities winter event. I think you will need to be quite a ways north and west to see all snow. For my backyard I see a front end thump of snow to an extended period of ZR to a little rain at the end. Philly will see snow to rain with some accumulation with NYC seeing the same and Long Island and the Jersey Shore seeing little accumulation. This could be a great example of where DC has more snow then NYC and PHL combined....of course what do I know...just an amateur hobbyist sales guy! Paul the low level warmth is still an issue on the ens mean for the cities east. The 925 temp is above 0 at the start of the event then falls to 0 for the middle part of the event then below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Hi Tom I agree too many folks are envisioning heavy precip and vertical motion overcoming the warm boundary layer. I will be very surprised if we don't see a trend west on the models with boundary layer issues for at the very least NYC/PHL and Long Island. This has all the earmarks of an old time North and West of the big cities winter event. I think you will need to be quite a ways north and west to see all snow. For my backyard I see a front end thump of snow to an extended period of ZR to a little rain at the end. Philly will see snow to rain with some accumulation with NYC seeing the same and Long Island and the Jersey Shore seeing little accumulation. This could be a great example of where DC has more snow then NYC and PHL combined....of course what do I know...just an amateur hobbyist sales guy! Paul Living NW of the cities at some elevation, I envision this event being heavy snow-->mix-->light snow, with a net gain in snowpack. Then we go back to arctic temperatures after the storm with more threats on the horizon. Great pattern we're in despite (or because of) the strong La Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 For the sake of my sanity (and a lot of other folks) PLEASE read the soundings before looking at a surface chart and assuming snow. Much obliged, -NittanyWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'd just like to give a friendly reminder that there is a banter thread to just shoot the breeze about various other topics. Let's try to keep the discussion in this thread specifically about next week's threat. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 For the sake of my sanity (and a lot of other folks) PLEASE read the soundings before looking at a surface chart and assuming snow. Much obliged, -NittanyWx Everybody is completely ignoring the soundings showing warmth, and every post that says it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I could see a repeat of 12/26 or 1/25/00 where the northern wave amplifies enough to pull the storm back. The question is, enough to be rain or will it stay snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 some nice solutions in here. Yes, some warm ones too, but nothing to cry over here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 These are the kinds of post that can get one five posted. The ensembles on both the GFS and ECM hint at closer track coast, but enough to maybe give the cities wet snow, but right we have varied solutions, so taking a trend to the west or east to the bank could hurt you until we get closer to the storm. Agreed-- I would go with the ensembles right now. Theyve had the best track record this winter so far. Jeff Smith also mentioned this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 KNYC 96 hours Skew-T. There is the warm layer at 925 but also note the direction of the winds and how much room there is to wetbulb. If there was precip and vv, this would probably be pretty isothermal from 850 and below be a heavy wet snow. Problem is the GFS has light qpf at this hour if anything, so its all speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 A new mess is now developing, and someone did post somebody else talking about it...that northern kicker is what prevents the latest GFS/Euro and NAM runs from pulling this up the coast...notice that the system looks like its about to go crazy in the Gulf and then suddenly seems to "open back up" while its ready to close...AGAIN like on 12/26 if the models are viewing that disturbance incorrectly as a kicker we could have a crazy shift west later in the period. i mentioned this a few days ago. I still cant understand how no one else discussed this back then.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Man Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Hi Tom I agree too many folks are envisioning heavy precip and vertical motion overcoming the warm boundary layer. I will be very surprised if we don't see a trend west on the models with boundary layer issues for at the very least NYC/PHL and Long Island. This has all the earmarks of an old time North and West of the big cities winter event. I think you will need to be quite a ways north and west to see all snow. For my backyard I see a front end thump of snow to an extended period of ZR to a little rain at the end. Philly will see snow to rain with some accumulation with NYC seeing the same and Long Island and the Jersey Shore seeing little accumulation. This could be a great example of where DC has more snow then NYC and PHL combined....of course what do I know...just an amateur hobbyist sales guy! Paul Hi Paul. I don't see DC doing better than we do. Also, I don't see this as a zr event a all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Honestly, I was thinking the same thing, but did not want to be the one to say it. Coming from you gives it much more credence than if I said this. I can easily see a trend west from here for just the reason you mentioned. well i wasnt afraid...I only get attention/responses when im blatantly negative... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 KNYC text output 850 and 900 96 hours gfs 900 885 0.6 -4.7 850 1343 -0.5 -8.2 plenty of room to wetbulb at 900 as long as the winds stay in a "cool" direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 KNYC text output 850 and 900 900 885 0.6 -4.7 850 1343 -0.5 -8.2 plenty of room to wetbulb at 900 as long as the winds stay in a "cool" direction. This is exactly why I wouldn't be surprised if this ended up being a rain to snow situation along the coast....However, this is based off new information from today and I suppose everything is subject to change with 0Z runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I agree with you a 100% here. Way too much weenie wishcasting going on here about dynamic cooling and the like somehow magically producing snow. The fact really is there that even if the low moves west its still mainly a long cold rain event. Hi Tom I agree too many folks are envisioning heavy precip and vertical motion overcoming the warm boundary layer. I will be very surprised if we don't see a trend west on the models with boundary layer issues for at the very least NYC/PHL and Long Island. This has all the earmarks of an old time North and West of the big cities winter event. I think you will need to be quite a ways north and west to see all snow. For my backyard I see a front end thump of snow to an extended period of ZR to a little rain at the end. Philly will see snow to rain with some accumulation with NYC seeing the same and Long Island and the Jersey Shore seeing little accumulation. This could be a great example of where DC has more snow then NYC and PHL combined....of course what do I know...just an amateur hobbyist sales guy! Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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