Blizzard92 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I remember seeing it shift east yesterday. It was the 12z run when the new info came in from the Pacific. It did shift east yesterday, but with a miller B solution that now looks like it was completely wrong. At 12z is when the ECMWF and GFS both shifted east; GFS being farther of course and finally coming around to the gulf low idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Now, if the NOGAPS ends up being right....something is definitly screwed up. NOGAPS has been more correct with systems then majority give it credit for.... Notice now where the GFS tracks...basically the same as the NOGAPS.... GFS will come west.....IMO take it to the bank! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 A new mess is now developing, and someone did post somebody else talking about it...that northern kicker is what prevents the latest GFS/Euro and NAM runs from pulling this up the coast...notice that the system looks like its about to go crazy in the Gulf and then suddenly seems to "open back up" while its ready to close...AGAIN like on 12/26 if the models are viewing that disturbance incorrectly as a kicker we could have a crazy shift west later in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18z DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I don't really think the GFS sniffed this out first at all. Before the 12z run today it had a completely different evolution without the gulf low. It actually has just come on board today with the low developing near New Orleans. Yes, but it did keep the precip east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NOGAPS has been more correct with systems then majority give it credit for.... Notice now where the GFS tracks...basically the same as the NOGAPS.... GFS will come west.....IMO take it to the bank! please. The nogaps was showing inland solutions, qpf bombs, then offshore track, now it looks like gfs. It has shown everything except constency and ranks with the ggem on this one pending final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 A new mess is now developing, and someone did post somebody else talking about it...that northern kicker is what prevents the latest GFS/Euro and NAM runs from pulling this up the coast...notice that the system looks like its about to go crazy in the Gulf and then suddenly seems to "open back up" while its ready to close...AGAIN like on 12/26 if the models are viewing that disturbance incorrectly as a kicker we could have a crazy shift west later in the period. truth is probably in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 A new mess is now developing, and someone did post somebody else talking about it...that northern kicker is what prevents the latest GFS/Euro and NAM runs from pulling this up the coast...notice that the system looks like its about to go crazy in the Gulf and then suddenly seems to "open back up" while its ready to close...AGAIN like on 12/26 if the models are viewing that disturbance incorrectly as a kicker we could have a crazy shift west later in the period. ha so it could go back from OTS to Apps runner again? I also think we need to wait for Monday when that northern stream feature comes onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 DGEX looks like a heavy wet snow for the ny metro with 850 below zero and 35 degree line going through nyc. And there is the qpf gradient that has been around since 12/19 last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 As someone else posted in New England, the lack of cold sector precip is odd on these models...even the DGEX to an extent shows the same anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NOGAPS has been more correct with systems then majority give it credit for.... Notice now where the GFS tracks...basically the same as the NOGAPS.... GFS will come west.....IMO take it to the bank! Yes, as with just every other event this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NOGAPS has been more correct with systems then majority give it credit for.... Notice now where the GFS tracks...basically the same as the NOGAPS.... GFS will come west.....IMO take it to the bank! What’s your meteorological reasoning for taking the shift west to the bank? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Honestly, I was thinking the same thing, but did not want to be the one to say it. Coming from you gives it much more credence than if I said this. I can easily see a trend west from here for just the reason you mentioned. A new mess is now developing, and someone did post somebody else talking about it...that northern kicker is what prevents the latest GFS/Euro and NAM runs from pulling this up the coast...notice that the system looks like its about to go crazy in the Gulf and then suddenly seems to "open back up" while its ready to close...AGAIN like on 12/26 if the models are viewing that disturbance incorrectly as a kicker we could have a crazy shift west later in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 DGEX at 102 looks weird, has me above freezing with screaming north winds...I have a hard time seeeing that happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Not directly related to this storm, but why does the Mother of All Alberta Clippers suddenly fizzle on the 12Z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Honestly, I was thinking the same thing, but did not want to be the one to say it. Coming from you gives it much more credence than if I said this. I can easily see a trend west from here for just the reason you mentioned. I could see a repeat of 12/26 or 1/25/00 where the northern wave amplifies enough to pull the storm back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 A new mess is now developing, and someone did post somebody else talking about it...that northern kicker is what prevents the latest GFS/Euro and NAM runs from pulling this up the coast...notice that the system looks like its about to go crazy in the Gulf and then suddenly seems to "open back up" while its ready to close...AGAIN like on 12/26 if the models are viewing that disturbance incorrectly as a kicker we could have a crazy shift west later in the period. the 12z EURO does close off at H5 at 90 hrs in NW GA just as the trough is going negative, it opens back up at 96 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I could see a repeat of 12/26 or 1/25/00 where the northern wave amplifies enough to pull the storm back. Yeah, Im thinking this thing does bow back but probably not enough to be anywhere near the inlad solutions we have seen and I still think a stronger storm will produce snow in the big cities, albeit wet. Jeez, it snowed in the snowicane last year and no one thought that could happen. Looking forward to 00z tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I could see a repeat of 12/26 or 1/25/00 where the northern wave amplifies enough to pull the storm back. For those who are students of the models this winter, that should be the projected outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I could see a repeat of 12/26 or 1/25/00 where the northern wave amplifies enough to pull the storm back. But a warmer 12/26? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Not directly related to this storm, but why does the Mother of All Alberta Clippers suddenly fizzle on the 12Z Euro? The Euro looks like 12/15/89 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Hopefully the models figure this out before 24 hours out again. I could see a repeat of 12/26 or 1/25/00 where the northern wave amplifies enough to pull the storm back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I could see a repeat of 12/26 or 1/25/00 where the northern wave amplifies enough to pull the storm back. This thought has plagued the back of my mind throughout this set of guidance. At this range, we've seen lots of inconsistency with the northern wave throughout the season. We really need to see how guidance reacts once it's in better range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GEFS are running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What’s your meteorological reasoning for taking the shift west to the bank? ALL here in post # 58 All right there in post # 58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 at 84 Spag plot all members are NW of 18z OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 looks like GEFS wetter than the OP but seems to agree with the further east track. Looks a lot like euro ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ens mean is the same as the euros basically..hse to bm...but more precip on cold side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yes, a lot more precip for everyone than the operational run. That is a little good news there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 at 84 Spag plot all members are NW of 18z OP Ton of spread in there. Its like scrambles eggs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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