Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 looks like the 18 z GFS is only going to skim coastal sections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 looks like the 18 z GFS is only going to skim coastal sections maybe only of NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think it's out to 84 on Raleigh, looks like a weak, disorganized storm. Maybe not, this is 90. Not sating its a hit, but its neither weak nor disorganized. Looks like a graze... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The kicker in front of the new HP is preventing this from coming up the coast. This is the same kicker the GGEM is phasing into the trough which is why its solution is now the real outliEr. Odds are starting to shrink of this cominng inland and even riding the coastal plain based on todays trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 whats scary is even with the low as it is right now, if there was precip over the cities it would be rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 nobody north of the southern half of DE or very eastern LI gets .1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 That HP is long gone, nothing there to force se wind direction...I'm getting interested... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It is amazing how we went this morning from worrying about the system being so far inland that it is rain along the coast to the system being so far off shore that no one gets anything. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This storm def amplifies quickly on this run, but OTS. 973mb E of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 whats scary is even with the low as it is right now, if there was precip over the cities it would be rain That's because there's no dynamic cooling to make the 850s and 2m temps colder...they would drop if heavy omega came in but the GFS just shows some flurries with highs around freezing. 18z GFS looks like a total miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 That's because there's no dynamic cooling to make the 850s and 2m temps colder...they would drop if heavy omega came in but the GFS just shows some flurries with highs around freezing. 18z GFS looks like a total miss. the 850s aren't the issue on this run nor the euro, its the bl. Yea you would need the dynamic cooling, thus you need the storm closer to the coast, which would bring some warmer air in also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 whats scary is even with the low as it is right now, if there was precip over the cities it would be rain well with dynamic processes maybe maybe not. 540 line is just about over ny but 850 is cold enough and flow with the lp is out of the NE, not E. What scarier is how the solutions outside of the silly ggem throw very little precip back beyond the big cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 That's because there's no dynamic cooling to make the 850s and 2m temps colder...they would drop if heavy omega came in but the GFS just shows some flurries with highs around freezing. 18z GFS looks like a total miss. Strongly agree here..If heavy precip was over the cities with a 980mb on the benchmark im sure that would be a heavy wet snow. Whats funny is everyone was throwing out calls yesterday based on the euro inland flooding disaster, now most if not all modes are east of the BM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Ugh, the precip shield is ultra-compact and that high in the Great Lakes is plowing through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 whats scary is even with the low as it is right now, if there was precip over the cities it would be rain the thermal profiles would be completely different if there was heavy precip falling over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It is amazing how we went this morning from worrying about the system being so far inland that it is rain along the coast to the system being so far off shore that no one gets anything. Unreal. Which proves that nothing is out of the question at this point from inland/coastal hugger to OTS. If it can change that drastically in less than 24 hours, it can just as drastically flip back to previous solutions. That being said, my confidence level is lowly decreasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 well with dynamic processes maybe maybe not. 540 line is just about over ny but 850 is cold enough and flow with the lp is out of the NE, not E. What scarier is how the solutions outside of the silly ggem throw very little precip back beyond the big cities. id rather have a miss, then a flood like the ggem or what the 0z euro was showing last night....everyone still gets an inch or two from the precip before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 How about all the HPC and nws discos about the miller A with intense over running, then huge coastal? Albany yesterday was talking about measuring with a yard stick. Sure, it could all come back, but what a difference a day makes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the 850s aren't the issue on this run nor the euro, its the bl. Yea you would need the dynamic cooling, thus you need the storm closer to the coast, which would bring some warmer air in also. As long as the wind is ENE or NE there wouldnt be any warm air coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the thermal profiles would be completely different if there was heavy precip falling over the area. yes i know, but that would also mean the storm would have to come closer, meaning you may have issues with the 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 id rather have a miss, then a flood like the ggem or what the 0z euro was showing last night....everyone still gets an inch or two from the precip before the storm. agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the 850s aren't the issue on this run nor the euro, its the bl. Yea you would need the dynamic cooling, thus you need the storm closer to the coast, which would bring some warmer air in also. It's not really worth worrying about the boundary later this far out....verbatim it's a bit warm but with cold upper levels, it would be mostly snow except for the immediate coast. The problem now appears to be the models trending too far east and making this into a non-event, although I'd rather this storm miss if it's going to create a lot of precipitation type issues...just wait for the Manitoba Mauler at Day 7 which appears to be more likely to be an all snow event and perhaps a Miller B Nor'easter. 18z GFS does have the SE bias so we'll see where 0z runs go. The heights actually look more amplified but the low is out to sea. well with dynamic processes maybe maybe not. 540 line is just about over ny but 850 is cold enough and flow with the lp is out of the NE, not E. What scarier is how the solutions outside of the silly ggem throw very little precip back beyond the big cities. The mid levels don't seem to develop until the low gets nearer Cape Cod, thus we don't see a good development of the CCB. Very little precip in the cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If this solution somehow pans out-- props must be given to the GFS for sniffing it out first. But that is a HUGE "IF" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18z NOGAPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 other than the ggem, strong concensus today on a near miss/hit. even the 18z nogaps falls in line. forget precip types, the slp tracks now save the ggem are clustered tightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If this solution somehow pans out-- props must be given to the GFS for sniffing it out first. But that is a HUGE "IF" I don't really think the GFS sniffed this out first at all. Before the 12z run today it had a completely different evolution without the gulf low. It actually has just come on board today with the low developing near New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Now, if the NOGAPS ends up being right....something is definitly screwed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I don't really think the GFS sniffed this out first at all. Before the 12z run today it had a completely different evolution without the gulf low. It actually has just come on board today with the low developing near New Orleans. I remember seeing it shift east yesterday. It was the 12z run when the new info came in from the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 gfs shifted east first but did it the wrong way showing a complete northern stream solution. Then it came back to the southern stream solution today and still stayed east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 And if this easterly solution verifies (big if) let this be a leason for the nogaps huggers who insist when its west that its a red flag. essentially, the model is just not up to snuff no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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