NJwinter23 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Here's an interesting contest-- if you had to place in order the cities most likely to least likely to get the most amount of snow from this, how would you rank the following: Boston, Providence, NYC, Philly, Baltimore, DC. As of right now.... I'd rank them Boston, DC, Philly, Baltimore, NYC, Providence. What do you think? I mean, sure lol. I really just don't know where this whole setup is going right now and what the next 2 days will bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 There is no banana high feature. The High in central Canada is under the confluence behind a northern shortwave over the Great Lakes, with a surface low pressure out ahead of it. It does seem to be building some colder air in, though, no denying that. It's not a traditional banana high set-up but you have some good resistance from the warmth with one high pressure slow to exit and another high pressure moving in. I don't think this synoptic situation is that terrible for the coast, especially considering it's late January with very low SSTs offshore....obviously NW suburbs will have a better shot of staying all snow, but it's not a given that this is a rainstorm for NYC and LI South Shore. I'd definitely be nervous in those areas but not terrified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It does seem to be building some colder air in, though, no denying that. It's not a traditional banana high set-up but you have some good resistance from the warmth with one high pressure slow to exit and another high pressure moving in. I don't think this synoptic situation is that terrible for the coast, especially considering it's late January with very low SSTs offshore....obviously NW suburbs will have a better shot of staying all snow, but it's not a given that this is a rainstorm for NYC and LI South Shore. I'd definitely be nervous in those areas but not terrified. I disagree with the sst comment, close to the coast yes they are cold. However, by the gulf stream, where the flow would be coming from temps are plenty warm enough for big problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I disagree with the sst comment, close to the coast yes they are cold. However, by the gulf stream, where the flow would be coming from temps are plenty warm enough for big problems. Question on the anatomy of the gulf stream-- how far north does it get at our longitude? I know it bends eastward about 150 miles SE of Long Island-- which seems to imply that a SE wind would bring in air off of it, but not an easterly wind. Still, even without the gulf stream's influence, you have milder SST further offshore just because they're further away from the land's influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What appears to be happening on the latest guidance including GFS/Euro/NAM is the high escapes SO fast east that it doesn't screw the area as much anymore...with the high far enough away the low is able to get more of a NE gradient wind as it passes the area and not SE due to the high being in a terrible spot...remember I posted the other day that this event if it did not happen early had a better chance of being snow if it happened VERY late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 this is a situation where 850s may not play a huge role like last monday storm. The low level warmth is going to be the issue. IMHO with the euro,nam,gfs tracks you need to be atleast 40 miles from the coast or have elevation. Agree - for the 84 NAM better to be NW of I-95.., That could easiliy change however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I disagree with the sst comment, close to the coast yes they are cold. However, by the gulf stream, where the flow would be coming from temps are plenty warm enough for big problems. It's obvious that SSTs are higher farther out into the Atlantic Ocean, but there are still widespread below normal ocean temperatures near the coast, which is important. As long as the coastal low tracks far enough offshore, winds will back to the E/NE, keeping the influence of the warmer Gulf stream waters minimal. The bigger problem comes if we have SE winds. But I think the main concern is 850s since dynamics can overcome BL warmth, especially for inland elevated areas, given that we have a low closing off near NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What appears to be happening on the latest guidance including GFS/Euro/NAM is the high escapes SO fast east that it doesn't screw the area as much anymore...with the high far enough away the low is able to get more of a NE gradient wind as it passes the area and not SE due to the high being in a terrible spot...remember I posted the other day that this event if it did not happen early had a better chance of being snow if it happened VERY late. Yes, I remember that clearly-- I just thought you meant a delayed storm was better for us because we'd have a fresh batch of arctic air building in lol. So if we cant hold the high in what we want is to move as far away as possible as fast as possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It's obvious that SSTs are higher farther out into the Atlantic Ocean, but there are still widespread below normal ocean temperatures near the coast, which is important. As long as the coastal low tracks far enough offshore, winds will back to the E/NE, keeping the influence of the warmer Gulf stream waters minimal. The bigger problem comes if we have SE winds. But I think the main concern is 850s since dynamics can overcome BL warmth, especially for inland elevated areas, given that we have a low closing off near NYC. Yes, this is what my thinking was too-- SE winds bring in water off the gulf stream, but since the gulf stream swerves away before it reaches our latitude, then directions without a southerly component wouldnt. I wouldnt count anything out though-- remember we got a raging blizzard on a southerly wind last year lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yes, I remember that clearly-- I just thought you meant a delayed storm was better for us because we'd have a fresh batch of arctic air building in lol. So if we cant hold the high in what we want is to move as far away as possible as fast as possible? Exactly, because you no longer have a mechanism for a SE wind unless the storm tracks over or inland....if you get an offshore track to the benchmark you cannot get SE winds if the high is not there early on...this is the type of event you really want occurring at night or coming in early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 this is a situation where 850s may not play a huge role like last monday storm. The low level warmth is going to be the issue. IMHO with the euro,nam,gfs tracks you need to be atleast 40 miles from the coast or have elevation. So Tom, Being 30 miles and 800' In northern Morris we might have a chance. Hey, Thanks for all the PBP and answers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It does seem to be building some colder air in, though, no denying that. It's not a traditional banana high set-up but you have some good resistance from the warmth with one high pressure slow to exit and another high pressure moving in. I don't think this synoptic situation is that terrible for the coast, especially considering it's late January with very low SSTs offshore....obviously NW suburbs will have a better shot of staying all snow, but it's not a given that this is a rainstorm for NYC and LI South Shore. I'd definitely be nervous in those areas but not terrified. Well I just dont agree with the bolded part there at all. If that northwest high pressure system is going to have an influence over our area with this storm, then that northern Great Lakes shortwave will have to trend majorly eastward to the point where you'd probably then have that interacting with our storm and a whole new clusterf**k of issues arises lol. But given what gfs/euro are doing with the latest runs, I guess I can't disagree with the rest of your post. We shall see what the next runs bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Exactly, because you no longer have a mechanism for a SE wind unless the storm tracks over or inland....if you get an offshore track to the benchmark you cannot get SE winds if the high is not there early on...this is the type of event you really want occurring at night or coming in early on. I hope it's late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning so we have the advantage of nighttime low temperatures. That could make the difference between a rain/snow mix and all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What appears to be happening on the latest guidance including GFS/Euro/NAM is the high escapes SO fast east that it doesn't screw the area as much anymore...with the high far enough away the low is able to get more of a NE gradient wind as it passes the area and not SE due to the high being in a terrible spot...remember I posted the other day that this event if it did not happen early had a better chance of being snow if it happened VERY late. Wind direction aside, I suppose that's also allowing the low to take a track farther from the coast. Correct or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1999/us0315.php Start hoping...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I hope it's late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning so we have the advantage of nighttime low temperatures. That could make the difference between a rain/snow mix and all snow. I cant wait for the next big set of AO/NAO blocking so we dont have to worry about this stuff anymore lol. According to Don, -3 seems likely early or mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What appears to be happening on the latest guidance including GFS/Euro/NAM is the high escapes SO fast east that it doesn't screw the area as much anymore...with the high far enough away the low is able to get more of a NE gradient wind as it passes the area and not SE due to the high being in a terrible spot...remember I posted the other day that this event if it did not happen early had a better chance of being snow if it happened VERY late. interesting point SG. That high really is way the hell out there now on today's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I cant wait for the next big set of AO/NAO blocking so we dont have to worry about this stuff anymore lol. According to Don, -3 seems likely early or mid February. Looks like an epic stretch coming after this nail-biter coastal, big Manitoba Mauler on the GFS and ECM, then brutal cold and perhaps a chance for another coastal. Looks great with a huge +PNA accompanying an increasingly -AO/-NAO. Blocking should return in early February in a serious manner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 My whole problem was with the high sliding off the coast, but is its going to get out of the way beforehand then that would help us out indeed. If the HP can get out of the way then we have a better chance of more ne winds as opposed to se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm just curious as to what the lowest ocean temps around NYC/LI have ever been. Aybody know where's there is a link to historical sst around NYC/LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 interesting point SG. That high really is way the hell out there now on today's runs. They will always be a problem on a system that tries to track anywhere near the coast when they are positioned poorly because you get a SE wind or ESE wind where you would normally not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18z GFS at 60 hr is holding back a bit more energy and digging a little deeper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm just curious as to what the lowest ocean temps around NYC/LI have ever been. Aybody know where's there is a link to historical sst around NYC/LI? There's a site that gives current SST but not historical records. I'd like to know what the warmest and coolest SST were also. Going by memory, I can remember SST near 32 a few times-- that might be the lowest they have gotten (or can go lol.) As for highest, we've been in the 80s a few times.....85 is the highest SST I can remember. I know that the waters off of Atlantic City as well as the waters off of the Korean Peninsula hold the distinction of having the greatest variation in SST over a whole year of anywhere in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 There's a site that gives current but not historical records. I'd like to know what the warmest and coolest SST were also. Going by memory, I can remember SST near 32 a few times-- that might be the lowest they have gotten (or can go lol.) As for highest, we've been in the 80s a few times.....85 is the highest SST I can remember. 32 is the lowest I remember too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 69 hrs 1012 low pop south of NO in the gulf, 1028 high departing even faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wind direction aside, I suppose that's also allowing the low to take a track farther from the coast. Correct or no? I'm not Goose but I think it's the high dropping into the GLs that's hurting us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Some overrunning precip on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think it's out to 84 on Raleigh, looks like a weak, disorganized storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 hr 90 has a sub 996 just east of hse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm not Goose but I think it's the high dropping into the GLs that's hurting us. I believe it is the low over the lakes moving east that is kicking it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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