Voyager Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Im hoping for you guys that the EURO OP is just too dry with the QPF; from what Alpha said, the Ensembles seem to be somewhat wetter. LOL, I deleted the question because you pretty much previously answered it. Yes, that high sliding in behind the exiting one is what I'm concerned about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 DGEX too warm at surface. 850's cut thru NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Someone else posted the maps...that wasnt me Lol I thought it was you because you interpreted the ensembles. At any rate, I think the isobars indicate the ensemble means not the OP (because of the labeling on the map.) Looks like there's a ton of variance because a SD of one comprises everything from an Apps Runner to OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I love how everyone in here elected to ignore this post lol. My concerns from yesterday with rain in the cities has not changed one bit. Though I'm a bit encouraged by the jump east with the euro, we still need a pretty specific track/strength solution to get all snow down our way with this setup No, it has been mentioned its probably warm to start but the track and the bombing low plus cold air up in canada could easily push this to heavy wet snow for the cities. The NAM is not a terrible setup at 84, it could easily look like the Euro in the next frames although much juicier it appears and maybe stronger. Still the NAM at 84 no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What is this new high everyone is talking about on the nam?? I dont see jack but the same old high going off New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I love how everyone in here elected to ignore this post lol. My concerns from yesterday with rain in the cities has not changed one bit. Though I'm a bit encouraged by the jump east with the euro, we still need a pretty specific track/strength solution to get all snow down our way with this setup Looks like a really tenuous set up-- almost like a spring storm scenario lol. Im just glad we have 2 months of winter after this lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I love how everyone in here elected to ignore this post lol. My concerns from yesterday with rain in the cities has not changed one bit. Though I'm a bit encouraged by the jump east with the euro, we still need a pretty specific track/strength solution to get all snow down our way with this setup This is a concern but would need to see dewpoint and other information to evaluate. Too me it looks like a close call - much better than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 DGEX too warm at surface. 850's cut thru NYC. It looks like the GFS track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 DGEX too warm at surface. 850's cut thru NYC. old run Lol I thought it was you because you interpreted the ensembles. At any rate, I think the isobars indicate the ensemble means not the OP (because of the labeling on the map.) Looks like there's a ton of variance because a SD of one comprises everything from an Apps Runner to OTS. Yeah theres a big ensemble spread but there are only a few apps runners, most are a BM track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What is this new high everyone is talking about on the nam?? I dont see jack but the same old high going off New England For some reason Wes seems more optimistic with the NAM. Do you foresee a scenario where DC could get snow and NYC could get rain? I know that's happened before.... several times lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 DGEX too warm at surface. 850's cut thru NYC. yes, just saw that, but also notice the flow is out of the N and NW. All in all, that could have been worse and does look similar to the thermal profile of the euro although euro is colder at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 No, it has been mentioned its probably warm to start but the track and the bombing low plus cold air up in canada could easily push this to heavy wet snow for the cities. The NAM is not a terrible setup at 84, it could easily look like the Euro in the next frames although much juicier it appears and maybe stronger. Still the NAM at 84 no matter what. The 18z nam would definitely be a further east track like the euro/gfs extrapolated I'd agree. Like I said, that much we absolutely need, our BL temps will be an issue in the coastal plain though because the high shifts offshore initially...dynamic cooling would really need to get the job done. I'm still not sold on anything though. Southerly winds at the surface across all of New England before the coastal gets going would really scour the cold source out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the problem with the EURO for places NW from 00z to 12 z is at 500 much less amplified, instead of a deeper trough going negative over AL, you have a much less amplified trough going negative over GA WED at 12z is huge difference todays run is open wave at 500 last nights had a closed 500 low in VA believe me if you want precip you want a storm to be attacking an arctic high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 For some reason Wes seems more optimistic with the NAM. Do you foresee a scenario where DC could get snow and NYC could get rain? I know that's happened before.... several times lol. Yea thats absoluteoly possible I'd think because they are further west/removed from a coastal influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The 18z nam would definitely be a further east track like the euro/gfs extrapolated I'd agree. Like I said, that much we absolutely need, our BL temps will be an issue in the coastal plain though because the high shifts offshore initially...dynamic cooling would really need to get the job done. I'm still not sold on anything though. Southerly winds at the surface across all of New England before the coastal gets going would really scour the cold source out Here is the surface map that shows the new high trying to drop down. You asked about it on last page. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20110122/18/nam_namer_084_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The 18z nam would definitely be a further east track like the euro/gfs extrapolated I'd agree. Like I said, that much we absolutely need, our BL temps will be an issue in the coastal plain though because the high shifts offshore initially...dynamic cooling would really need to get the job done. I'm still not sold on anything though. Southerly winds at the surface across all of New England before the coastal gets going would really scour the cold source out yes, but remember, its the end of January, lots of snow cover, and the models grossly over did the ll warm this week so its easy to see that happening again. I like how you put it, def. nice trends. Plus, there air is going to be very dry, so plenty of room to wetbulb. Last edit, the flow seems pretty weak when the high goes offshore for a little, must consider that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yea thats absoluteoly possible I'd think because they are further west/removed from a coastal influence. We had this happen in another la nina-- Jan 2000 I think it was. Vet Day Storm 1987 is another one, though obviously cant use a November storm as an analog with the huge difference in SST. But Jan 2000 maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Here is the surface map that shows the new high trying to drop down. You asked about it on last page. http://mag.ncep.noaa..._wnd_precip.gif Yeah I don't see anything exerting an influence on the northest. The H north of Maine is like an extension of the one that goes off the coast, winds are southeast across the entire northeast. The other H over central Canada is influencing behind the clipper like low feature over the Great Lakes, definitely doing nothing for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The 18z nam would definitely be a further east track like the euro/gfs extrapolated I'd agree. Like I said, that much we absolutely need, our BL temps will be an issue in the coastal plain though because the high shifts offshore initially...dynamic cooling would really need to get the job done. I'm still not sold on anything though. Southerly winds at the surface across all of New England before the coastal gets going would really scour the cold source out The SNE folks seem to be really optimistic though-- you'd think with how southerly winds hurt them they'd also be more subdued lol. I can understand why the interior SNE would be excited, but places like Providence and further east up to Boston are particularly sensitive to S and SE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Here is the surface map that shows the new high trying to drop down. You asked about it on last page. http://mag.ncep.noaa..._wnd_precip.gif lol THAT? Doesn't look like it will have much of any influence to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 yes, but remember, its the end of January, lots of snow cover, and the models grossly over did the ll warm this week so its easy to see that happening again. I like how you put it, def. nice trends. Plus, there air is going to be very dry, so plenty of room to wetbulb. Last edit, the flow seems pretty weak when the high goes offshore for a little, must consider that too. Definitely...we had 1.5" of snow here and then hours of icing in Westchester...really bad storm and the low level cold was underestimated even with easterly flow. We had a long period of freezing rain with temps hanging around 27/28 degrees, not a pleasant situation. Obviously the east winds are more of a concern for those on LI with the boundary layer warming, but I just want 850s to be below 0C with heavy precipitation falling. I also like the trend towards more of a banana high building in as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 We had this happen in another la nina-- Jan 2000 I think it was. Vet Day Storm 1987 is another one, though obviously cant use a November storm as an analog with the huge difference in SST. But Jan 2000 maybe. The late Jan., event right? Marginal system on the 28th-29th? 1- 2" snow to rain here in Monmouth county. 87 storm was an issue of serious mesoscale banding in random locations, one of which was over DC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 lol THAT? Doesn't look like it will have much of any influence to me. I didn't say it did. Plus, other models have it further south then that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The late Jan., event right? Marginal system on the 28th-29th? 1- 2" snow to rain here in Monmouth county. 87 storm was an issue of serious mesoscale banding in random locations, one of which was over DC metro Yup. Jan 2000 was a blown forecast down in the lower MA, but didnt do too well up here. Vet Dat 87 was a DC and SNE special lol. An analog that could give us a positive bust would be Jan 1987. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think it was the Super Bowl storm in 2000. DC on west stayed snow. We changed to rain here, west of Philly. I imagine the same thing happened in your area. Yep-- I remember that Jan 2000 storm dumped more snow in the Carolinas than up here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Definitely...we had 1.5" of snow here and then hours of icing in Westchester...really bad storm and the low level cold was underestimated even with easterly flow. We had a long period of freezing rain with temps hanging around 27/28 degrees, not a pleasant situation. Obviously the east winds are more of a concern for those on LI with the boundary layer warming, but I just want 850s to be below 0C with heavy precipitation falling. I also like the trend towards more of a banana high building in as well. There is no banana high feature. The High in central Canada is under the confluence behind a northern shortwave over the Great Lakes, with a surface low pressure out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 For some reason Wes seems more optimistic with the NAM. Do you foresee a scenario where DC could get snow and NYC could get rain? I know that's happened before.... several times lol. The NAM is a nice middle of the road solution that could allow us to thread the needle. Amplified enough for good precip but not too amplified. Track of 850 low looks to be headed SE of DC which is good for them and us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 There is no banana high feature. The High in central Canada is under the confluence behind a northern shortwave over the Great Lakes, with a surface low pressure out ahead of it. Unless we somehow get a HP in prime position, and winds more northerly than easterly, then I think we'll be looking at a more wet scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The NAM is a nice middle of the road solution that could allow us to thread the needle. Amplified enough for good precip but not too amplified. Track of 850 low looks to be headed SE of DC which is good for them and us. this is a situation where 850s may not play a huge role like last monday storm. The low level warmth is going to be the issue. IMHO with the euro,nam,gfs tracks you need to be atleast 40 miles from the coast or have elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This is from the SNE thread: the key issue is the northern stream kicker that is near the GL region that is what keeps the storm from cutting inland. that looks to be onshore by 12z monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.