stormman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12 z EURO liquid Equivalent of Snow .1"- 1" for everyone save west of Harrisburg, North of the Lehigh Valley and south of Delaware 1" snow equivalent is only in NE in eastern Mass (less cape cod) and eastern Maine what is number for philly burbs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 what is number for philly burbs? as Ive said with other posts with this its kind of useless cause of the scale going from .1 to 1" and only up by the inch from there, I just wanted it to be clear that the EURO is indicating no one in our region see 1" of snow in liquid equivilent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 it's not because of the track though, as a BM track is perfect and what we've seen all winter. It's a matter of having enough cold air around. thats what im saying though. In december we prob wouldn't have it. In january its the coldest time of the year, so the odds are better for a marginal setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18z Nam is a little less amplified through 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 as Ive said with other posts with this its kind of useless cause of the scale going from .1 to 1" and only up by the inch from there, I just wanted it to be clear that the EURO is indicating no one in our region see 1" of snow in liquid equivilent well isnt that obviously when the euro only shows about .6 qpf for philly total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Where do you find these "verification scores" for review? "Great" should be defined by verification scores and I dropped my accuwx pro subscription a few years ago because I failed to see positive results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18z Nam is a little less amplified through 60 hrs. Agree not digging as far SW. Should be little less amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Everyone is entitled to read whoever they want to the read in terms of blogs. JB is JB. Some love'em, some hate'em. If I had to put my $$$ on one met. at AccuWeather I prefer.....Joe Lundberg and his free blog on their site. Always informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 well isnt that obviously when the euro only shows about .6 qpf for philly total? I try to give information region wide not just for localities as this thread encompasses everyone from Del, NJ, PHL, back to amish country thru the Lehigh Valley Poconos, NYC its burbs and LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Everyone is entitled to read whoever they want to the read in terms of blogs. JB is JB. Some love'em, some hate'em. If I had to put my $$$ on one met. at AccuWeather I prefer.....Joe Lundberg and his free blog on their site. Always informative. Is bill his bro . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 thats what im saying though. In december we prob wouldn't have it. In january its the coldest time of the year, so the odds are better for a marginal setup. I agree with you, but I think February would have been even better because that's when SST are usually the lowest. That's probably why we see our biggest storms then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Where do you find these "verification scores" for review? As almost everyone else has noted, he doesnt have a great track record because he tends to overhype storms and patterns. For my money, I'd take Joe Lundberg or Eliot Abrams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Agree...I don't love or hate JB...I do enjoy the Accu pro site and get great value from it and I do enjoy and learn a lot from JB. However,not everyone can see that value...I subscribe to a few METS (NJ PA weather etc.) and sites and for me it is well worth the price. Those sites and sources along with this tremendous blog give me all I need. But they are all professional and deserve our respect. I am just an hobbyist and value their insights and opinions. Everyone is entitled to read whoever they want to the read in terms of blogs. JB is JB. Some love'em, some hate'em. If I had to put my $$$ on one met. at AccuWeather I prefer.....Joe Lundberg and his free blog on their site. Always informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
listarz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Can someone bring me up to speed. 3 hours ago we were looking at a blocking problem no matter what trak the storm took. What did I miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 That's one beast of a shortwave over MS at 75 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I agree with you, but I think February would have been even better because that's when SST are usually the lowest. That's probably why we see our biggest storms then. Aren't sea temps around 38 degrees off NYC/LI. right now ..which is pretty cold considering we haven't even seen that in Feb the past few winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Everyone is entitled to read whoever they want to the read in terms of blogs. JB is JB. Some love'em, some hate'em. If I had to put my $$ on one met. at AccuWeather I prefer.....Joe Lundberg and his free blog on their site. Always informative. as of this morning Joe L. sounds like he's with JB places where it remains all snow could get quite a bit of it, and right now that would seem to favor areas of central and western Virginia into eastern West Virginia, central and western Maryland, much of central and eastern Pennsylvania save the southeast corner, and all of eastern New York state into central and northern New England. in fairness this is before the EURO came out but reasons why the a coastal snow idea is wrong (the gfs's idea) "for one reason, the downstream blocking that had been present over the North Atlantic is not nearly as strong as it had been, and this should allow the storm more room to turn north. For another, it begins as a southern stream system, coming out of the Plains late this weekend and across the South Monday and Monday night into Tuesday morning AHEAD of the northern branch feature coming in from the Midwest and Ohio Valley. I have a hard time seeing that kind of set up push the storm out to sea, but instead should cause the upper level flow to become more southerly with time to guide the storm more northward." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Aren't sea temps around 38 degrees off NYC/LI...which is pretty cold considering we haven't even seen that in Feb the past few winters Yes, theyre actually colder than that-- more like 35 degrees now. However if we get an east or south east wind that brings in milder air from further offshore. Those SST readings are made closer to the coast than the fetch of easterly winds a coastal brings in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yes, theyre actually colder than that-- more like 35 degrees now. However if we get an east or south east wind that brings in milder air from further offshore. Those SST readings are made closer to the coast than the fetch of easterly winds a coastal brings in. good explanation...But how would one month later help us with those still far offshore sst? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Check out the new high dropping down at 81 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20110122/18/nam_namer_081_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 good explanation...But how would one month later help us with those still far offshore sst? Because in marginal situations every little bit helps. The way to think about it is that in December, when we have SST in the 40s, we can changeover much more quickly with those easterly winds. Later on in the season, with the SST colder it takes longer-- add to that the fact that we usually are working with colder aimasses to begin with, and we can stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Check out the new high dropping down at 81 http://mag.ncep.noaa..._wnd_precip.gif Yeah, this is what the models seem to be keying on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yeah, this is what the models seem to be keying on today. The 0c 850 line never gets above Philly through the end of the NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Someone posted a map from a paid site. That is a copyrighted source and you are not allowed to post maps from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18z nam doesn't look bad to me...would probably look like the 6z DGEX yes 850s get close to above 0 to NJ/NYC at 84 hrs, but look how they crashed back down further south. at 78 hours the 0C line was well north and west of dc/bwi, at 84 the 0C line has retreated toward SEVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmb8021 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Latest from Upton AFD: .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --GFS CONTINUES TO TRACK THE COASTAL LOW FARTHER EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. OPERATIONAL RUN IS SLOWER THAN THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ARE STILL CLOSE TO 18 HOURS FASTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. ALSO...GFS ENSEMBLE TRACKING THE LOW FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. 18Z WED TO 06Z THU THE LATEST ECMWF HAS NOW SHIFTED THE SURFACE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST....SUGGESTING MORE OF A SNOW EVENT. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY AND FOR CONSISTENCY HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF. UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVES THROUGH THE GULF STATES WITH CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS CLOSED LOW THEN TRACKS OFF THE COAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATE WEDNESDAY AND NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH BE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A ON SHORE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WARM AIR WILL BE FLOWING IN ALOFT...AND ALSO AT THE SURFACE. TOUGH CALL AS TO HOW FAR INLAND THE LOWER LEVELS WARM. POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE COAST...AND SNOW FARTHER INLAND. OR RAIN MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD FARTHER WEST...POSSIBLY TO NYC AND WESTERN CONNECTICUT...WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WEST OF THERE. STORM MOVES OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH COLDER AIR RETURNING AND PRECIPITATION LIKELY GOING BACK TO SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES VERY LATE IN THE EXTENDED...LATER SATURDAY...AND WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The 0c 850 line never gets above Philly through the end of the NAM run. Definitely a trend this run toward a flatter, slightly colder solution. But still a ton of time for change here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 That is a fooking beast at 84. Sim radar looks awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Everyone is entitled to read whoever they want to the read in terms of blogs. JB is JB. Some love'em, some hate'em. If I had to put my $$$ on one met. at AccuWeather I prefer.....Joe Lundberg and his free blog on their site. Always informative. He's quite knowledgeable and informative as to his explanations, but beyond that, he's boring in that he only recites Accuweather's party line and will not stick his neck out, or make any specific commitments beyond a few days. At least JB takes risks, and makes much longer term predictions, despite occasionally talking out of both sides of his mouth. Despite the controversy about him, he gets my $$. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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