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NYC/PHL 1/25-27 potential Part III


NortheastPAWx

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12 z EURO liquid Equivalent of Snow

.1"- 1" for everyone save west of Harrisburg, North of the Lehigh Valley and south of Delaware

1" snow equivalent is only in NE in eastern Mass (less cape cod) and eastern Maine

what is number for philly burbs?

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as Ive said with other posts with this its kind of useless cause of the scale going from .1 to 1" and only up by the inch from there, I just wanted it to be clear that the EURO is indicating no one in our region see 1" of snow in liquid equivilent

well isnt that obviously when the euro only shows about .6 qpf for philly total?

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thats what im saying though. In december we prob wouldn't have it. In january its the coldest time of the year, so the odds are better for a marginal setup.

I agree with you, but I think February would have been even better because that's when SST are usually the lowest. That's probably why we see our biggest storms then.

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Agree...I don't love or hate JB...I do enjoy the Accu pro site and get great value from it and I do enjoy and learn a lot from JB. However,not everyone can see that value...I subscribe to a few METS (NJ PA weather etc.) and sites and for me it is well worth the price. Those sites and sources along with this tremendous blog give me all I need. But they are all professional and deserve our respect. I am just an hobbyist and value their insights and opinions.

Everyone is entitled to read whoever they want to the read in terms of blogs. JB is JB. Some love'em, some hate'em.

If I had to put my $$$ on one met. at AccuWeather I prefer.....Joe Lundberg and his free blog on their site. Always informative.

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I agree with you, but I think February would have been even better because that's when SST are usually the lowest. That's probably why we see our biggest storms then.

Aren't sea temps around 38 degrees off NYC/LI. right now ..which is pretty cold considering we haven't even seen that in Feb the past few winters

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Everyone is entitled to read whoever they want to the read in terms of blogs. JB is JB. Some love'em, some hate'em.

If I had to put my $$ on one met. at AccuWeather I prefer.....Joe Lundberg and his free blog on their site. Always informative.

as of this morning Joe L. sounds like he's with JB

places where it remains all snow could get quite a bit of it, and right now that would seem to favor areas of central and western Virginia into eastern West Virginia, central and western Maryland, much of central and eastern Pennsylvania save the southeast corner, and all of eastern New York state into central and northern New England.

in fairness this is before the EURO came out but reasons why the a coastal snow idea is wrong (the gfs's idea)

"for one reason, the downstream blocking that had been present over the North Atlantic is not nearly as strong as it had been, and this should allow the storm more room to turn north. For another, it begins as a southern stream system, coming out of the Plains late this weekend and across the South Monday and Monday night into Tuesday morning AHEAD of the northern branch feature coming in from the Midwest and Ohio Valley. I have a hard time seeing that kind of set up push the storm out to sea, but instead should cause the upper level flow to become more southerly with time to guide the storm more northward."

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Aren't sea temps around 38 degrees off NYC/LI...which is pretty cold considering we haven't even seen that in Feb the past few winters

Yes, theyre actually colder than that-- more like 35 degrees now.

However if we get an east or south east wind that brings in milder air from further offshore. Those SST readings are made closer to the coast than the fetch of easterly winds a coastal brings in.

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Yes, theyre actually colder than that-- more like 35 degrees now.

However if we get an east or south east wind that brings in milder air from further offshore. Those SST readings are made closer to the coast than the fetch of easterly winds a coastal brings in.

good explanation...But how would one month later help us with those still far offshore sst?

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good explanation...But how would one month later help us with those still far offshore sst?

Because in marginal situations every little bit helps. The way to think about it is that in December, when we have SST in the 40s, we can changeover much more quickly with those easterly winds. Later on in the season, with the SST colder it takes longer-- add to that the fact that we usually are working with colder aimasses to begin with, and we can stay all snow.

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18z nam doesn't look bad to me...would probably look like the 6z DGEX

yes 850s get close to above 0 to NJ/NYC at 84 hrs, but look how they crashed back down further south. at 78 hours the 0C line was well north and west of dc/bwi, at 84 the 0C line has retreated toward SEVA.

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Latest from Upton AFD:

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --GFS CONTINUES TO TRACK THE COASTAL LOW FARTHER EAST WEDNESDAY INTO

THURSDAY THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. OPERATIONAL RUN IS SLOWER THAN THE

ENSEMBLES WHICH ARE STILL CLOSE TO 18 HOURS FASTER THAN THE OTHER

GUIDANCE. ALSO...GFS ENSEMBLE TRACKING THE LOW FARTHER TO THE WEST

THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. 18Z WED TO

06Z THU THE LATEST ECMWF HAS NOW SHIFTED THE SURFACE LOW A LITTLE

FARTHER TO THE EAST....SUGGESTING MORE OF A SNOW EVENT.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW FOR

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY AND FOR

CONSISTENCY HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z

ECMWF.

UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVES THROUGH THE GULF STATES

WITH CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

THIS CLOSED LOW THEN TRACKS OFF THE COAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATE

WEDNESDAY AND NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

SURFACE LOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH BE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE

CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE PRECIPITATION TYPES AND

AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A ON SHORE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO

WEDNESDAY WARM AIR WILL BE FLOWING IN ALOFT...AND ALSO AT THE

SURFACE. TOUGH CALL AS TO HOW FAR INLAND THE LOWER LEVELS WARM.

POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE COAST...AND SNOW

FARTHER INLAND. OR RAIN MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD FARTHER

WEST...POSSIBLY TO NYC AND WESTERN CONNECTICUT...WITH FREEZING RAIN

AND SNOW WEST OF THERE.

STORM MOVES OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH COLDER AIR

RETURNING AND PRECIPITATION LIKELY GOING BACK TO SNOW.

ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES VERY LATE IN THE EXTENDED...LATER

SATURDAY...AND WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.-- End Changed Discussion --

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Everyone is entitled to read whoever they want to the read in terms of blogs. JB is JB. Some love'em, some hate'em.

If I had to put my $$$ on one met. at AccuWeather I prefer.....Joe Lundberg and his free blog on their site. Always informative.

He's quite knowledgeable and informative as to his explanations, but beyond that, he's boring in that he only recites Accuweather's party line and will not stick his neck out, or make any specific commitments beyond a few days. At least JB takes risks, and makes much longer term predictions, despite occasionally talking out of both sides of his mouth. Despite the controversy about him, he gets my $$.

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