Saturn510 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It is pretty facinating that these systems are always being delayed by a day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'd have to say they are pretty close to the OP oh well thanks anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It is pretty facinating that these systems are always being delayed by a day or so. its not delayed, its still tues night into wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If coastal sections and cities can pull out a good amount of snow, even if it's wet snow, from this set-up.. it just goes to show how incredibly persistent and complex this winter has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 JB 2pm update backs ukmet, ggem nogaps jma rather than gfs and the new euro the problem he says: "The modeling problem is that it is trying to flatten the southern feature by putting more emphasis on the jet to the north, and kicking features behind. Its a problem, but one that the model cant handle now" Says big cities will either be mostly rain (main idea), or mostly snow with rain just southeast (possibility he is ok with) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Miami almost gets below freezing at the end of the EURO's run. @240 Looks like 95% of the country is below 35 degrees lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 JB 2pm update backs ukmet, ggem nogaps jma rather than gfs and the new euro the problem he says: "The modeling problem is that it is trying to flatten the southern feature by putting more emphasis on the jet to the north, and kicking features behind. Its a problem, but one that the model cant handle now" Says big cities will either be mostly rain (main idea), or mostly snow with rain just southeast (possibility he is ok with) The last sentence to me is contradicting. Like saying it will either be sunny or cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 JB 2pm update backs ukmet, ggem nogaps jma rather than gfs and the new euro the problem he says: "The modeling problem is that it is trying to flatten the southern feature by putting more emphasis on the jet to the north, and kicking features behind. Its a problem, but one that the model cant handle now" Says big cities will either be mostly rain (main idea), or mostly snow with rain just southeast (possibility he is ok with) Why doesn't he just say any type is possible ? Hard to believe it will be mainly rain in NYC especially ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 its not delayed, its still tues night into wed. For a while, the GFS was honking a faster start (Tuesday midday). The EC slowed up and now the GFS has followed suit. This is pretty much a Wednesday storm now for the most part on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The last sentence to me is contradicting. Like saying it will either be sunny or cloudy. Not really. The demarcation between mostly rain and snow will be very thin. It's almost impossible to say at this range that "X city will be mostly rain and Y city will be mostly/all snow". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The last sentence to me is contradicting. Like saying it will either be sunny or cloudy. Agreed! JB tries to lock on to a solution as early as he can to be "the first" and his stubbornness IMO prevents him from adjusting his thoughts. Just my opinion and I know he's phenomenal at long range patterns, even though he blew his blowtorch Jan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The last sentence to me is contradicting. Like saying it will either be sunny or cloudy. says its only a bust if track is so that no precip falls in big cities, his main idea is mostly rain big cities but basically says the forecast is still a success if its mostly snow but rain is close by. Its a very confusing post, I will post this quote as well cause I'm still trying to understand what the heck he is saying, maybe one of you can help me. "but if its a big snow in the northeast, it will be yet another storm that was written off by modeling, which is usually the sign in modeling from this point, that its coming." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Why doesn't he just say any type is possible ? Hard to believe it will be mainly rain in NYC especially ..... JB doesnt say that, early today he said the cities would be right on the fence in the 'battle zone' with higher snow amounts to the west, and less to the east. In the afternoon he said if the cities receive little snow, b/c mainly rain wouldnt be surprised, or if cities received a lot of snow with rain just to their SE wouldnt be surprised. He said if cities missed precip to their east would be very surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just to clarify some of the mis-reads from some of the earlier posts in this thread.....JB's 2pm update is no change to his original idea he sees this as "coastal areas are due for a storm with mainly rain, the big cities a fight and the heaviest snows further west" That is his forecast and he appears to be sticking by it Enjoy the weather.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Away from the immediate shore, yes. For instance...OKX has a 700mb temp of -11 during the height of the storm but the surface below 925mb is a bit warm. Areas just inland like KEWR don't have that problem if you take the Euro verbatim. The surface there at it's warmest is just shy of 1 C. And yes, it's certainly credible. The way it's handling the upper air trough seems good to me. What I was saying yesterday was that if the amplified solutions were to happen nobody had any chance. But we can try and pull out what I like to call a sh** show (big wet heavy snow). John, I wonder if this will be like a spring time storm with the heaviest rates defining where and when its snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just to clarify some of the mis-reads from some of the earlier posts in this thread.....JB's 2pm update is no change to his original idea he sees this as "coastal areas are due for a storm with mainly rain, the big cities a fight and the heaviest snows further west" That is his forecast and he appears to be sticking by it Enjoy the weather.... Does he mean coastal NJ and eastern LI? If he means the City, then he just contradicted himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 JB 2pm update backs ukmet, ggem nogaps jma rather than gfs and the new euro the problem he says: "The modeling problem is that it is trying to flatten the southern feature by putting more emphasis on the jet to the north, and kicking features behind. Its a problem, but one that the model cant handle now" Says big cities will either be mostly rain (main idea), or mostly snow with rain just southeast (possibility he is ok with) Why doesn't he just say anything type is possible ? Hard to believe it will be mainly rain in NYC especially ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 JB doesnt say that, early today he said the cities would be right on the fence in the 'battle zone' with higher snow amounts to the west, and less to the east. In the afternoon he said if the cities receive little snow, b/c mainly rain wouldnt be surprised, or if cities received a lot of snow with rain just to their SE wouldnt be surprised. He said if cities missed precip to their east would be very surprised. I cant believe we're trying to microanalyze JB lol. I'd put my much more faith in the great mets we have on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 102 Hour Valid 18Z26JAN2011 O and if I shouldn't post snippets of images off ACCUWX lemme know This graphics conflicts with the PBP. I thought the 850 line did not move north or northwest of ACY or is that surface temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 For a while, the GFS was honking a faster start (Tuesday midday). The EC slowed up and now the GFS has followed suit. This is pretty much a Wednesday storm now for the most part on the models. the gfs was the only model that fast. Just like it was the only model showing what it was showing at 0z last night and 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This graphics conflicts with the PBP. I thought the 850 line did not move north or northwest of ACY. thats the 540 line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 thats the 540 line Indeed, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 We have a ton of great METS on here....and JB is included in that group... whether he posts here or not. All MET opinions are welcome on this board! I cant believe we're trying to microanalyze JB lol. I'd put my much more faith in the great mets we have on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The money quote from the HPC... AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS WINTER... THESE COASTAL SYSTEMS HAVE BEENANYTHING BUT EASY TO FORECAST. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Does he mean coastal NJ and eastern LI? If he means the City, then he just contradicted himself. Yeah, the words he uses makes it very unclear. But I wouldnt be worrying about it any more than model out put from 4 days out lol. Basically, there's different coastal front alignments possible, some are west-east, some are north-south and some are southwest-northeast. The way it aligns itself will determine who gets what. We could even have a scenario where anyone who has heavy rates gets snow and when it lightens up its rain. We've seen that many times before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rok Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 JB 2pm update backs ukmet, ggem nogaps jma rather than gfs and the new euro the problem he says: "The modeling problem is that it is trying to flatten the southern feature by putting more emphasis on the jet to the north, and kicking features behind. Its a problem, but one that the model cant handle now" Says big cities will either be mostly rain (main idea), or mostly snow with rain just southeast (possibility he is ok with) What a great forecast if that is indeed what he said lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 QPF for even for our region .1 Harrisburg, PA to Tamaqua, PA up to Scranton, PA all of Ny state .25 just west of DC to Lancaster, PA to Reading to Easton, to Newton, NJ, to Poughkeapske, NY to NW corner of CT .5 Dc to Baltomore to King of Prussia, PA to Newark, Yonkers to Danbury, CT .75 eastern DC to Wilmington DE, to Trenton to NYC to Harford 1" Richmond, VA to near Dover, DE to sandy Hook, NJ to levitown, LI to Norwich, CT 1.25 petersburg, VA to milford, DE to toms river NJ to southhampton LI to Providence RI 1.5 williamsburg, VA to salisbury, MD south of NJ maybe brushing extreme eastern LI into RI that really hurt my eyes Unbelievable that this could even be possible....not again. I know it's still a few days away, but it seems like things are trending away from the interior having a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 if this was december, this would be rain hands down. But since we are in late january that may save us for getting wet snow. it's not because of the track though, as a BM track is perfect and what we've seen all winter. It's a matter of having enough cold air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 We have a ton of great METS on here....and JB is included in that group... whether he posts here or not. All MET opinions are welcome on this board! "Great" should be defined by verification scores and I dropped my accuwx pro subscription a few years ago because I failed to see positive results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12 z EURO liquid Equivalent of Snow .1"- 1" for everyone save west of Harrisburg, North of the Lehigh Valley and south of Delaware 1" snow equivalent is only in NE in eastern Mass (less cape cod) and eastern Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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