WeatherX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Camp Springs.... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 158 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2011 VALID 12Z TUE JAN 25 2011 - 12Z SAT JAN 29 2011 12Z MODEL UPDATE... ALONG THE EAST COAST... THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE JOINED THE BANDWAGON OF THE OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z/WED WITH THE EMPHASIS ON THE SOUTHERN ENERGY THROUGH THE GULF STATES. IT THEN TAKES THE LOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD WELL OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK BEFORE REJOINING THE CONSENSUS NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. THE 12Z CANADIAN CONTINUES ITS WESTERN TRACK FROM WESTERN NC THROUGH DC THEN TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 12Z/THU. 12Z UKMET SHIFTED ITS TRACK A BIT TO THE WEST OF ITS 00Z RUN AND IS SLOWER AS WELL. 12Z GEFS MEAN SLOWED DOWN AS WELL AND MOVED BACK TOWARD THE COAST BUT IS STILL QUICKER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES ITS WOBBLE EAST OF EARLIER RUNS AND NOW TAKES THE LOW VERY NEAR THE BENCHMARK BY 00Z/THU. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS WINTER... THESE COASTAL SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN ANYTHING BUT EASY TO FORECAST. EARLIER FORECAST WAS WELL WITHIN THE SPREAD SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE FINAL ISSUANCE. SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF CANADA LATE NEXT WEEK SHOWS GOOD 12Z GEFS MEAN AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SO WILL LEAVE WELL ENOUGH ALONE THERE AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Good timing on this run of the Euro....I wonder if this doesn't just doesn't slip away from us all together? reminds me of the paul simon song slip sliding away, but no, i dont think that happens. Everything is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It can help develop a baroclinic zone and in that sense develop a favored storm track, but snow cover doesn't "lock in" a certain track in any real way. I would say that an inland track isn't favored in this situation, but the low can certainly be close enough anyway to cause us to switch to rain. The way I envision it, it's a small factor, but with so many different variables at work, one little thing can nudge it one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 reminds me of the paul simon song slip sliding away, but no, i dont think that happens. Everything is still on the table. Neither do I....great song, btw lol. Ok, I'm out....time for some sound meteorological reasoning to resume in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 15z srefs continue the less amplified train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ECMWF QPF totals EWR: 0.55" LGA: 0.58" JFK: 0.75" HPN: 0.45" ISP: 0.97" MMU: 0.36" SMQ: 0.38" ABE: 0.20" PHL: 0.59" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 thankfully i just woke up, i can imagine the thread went tumble like our temps after the ggem and others....the euro looks like snow over to wet snow. This would deff be better for those with higher elevation outside the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ECMWF QPF totals EWR: 0.55" LGA: 0.58" JFK: 0.75" HPN: 0.45" ISP: 0.97" MMU: 0.36" SMQ: 0.38" ABE: 0.20" PHL: 0.59" i have the maps and the 850's are fine but is that all wet heavy snow? btw, thoughts on the euro and gfs less amplication and a BM track? credible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i have the maps and the 850's are fine but is that all wet heavy snow? btw, thoughts on the euro and gfs less amplication and a BM track? credible? imho, keep that same track but strengthen them a lot more. That should pull down colder air, like the previous inland bombs were showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i have the maps and the 850's are fine but is that all wet heavy snow? btw, thoughts on the euro and gfs less amplication and a BM track? credible? Away from the immediate shore, yes. For instance...OKX has a 700mb temp of -11 during the height of the storm but the surface below 925mb is a bit warm. Areas just inland like KEWR don't have that problem if you take the Euro verbatim. The surface there at it's warmest is just shy of 1 C. And yes, it's certainly credible. The way it's handling the upper air trough seems good to me. What I was saying yesterday was that if the amplified solutions were to happen nobody had any chance. But we can try and pull out what I like to call a sh** show (big wet heavy snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 thankfully i just woke up, i can imagine the thread went tumble like our temps after the ggem and others....the euro looks like snow over to wet snow. This would deff be better for those with higher elevation outside the cities. Snow over to wet snow? I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 imho, keep that same track but strengthen them a lot more. That should pull down colder air, like the previous inland bombs were showing. Agree. Could easily see a stronger low, more precip, but also able to draw all that nice cold air up in canada and northern new york. Plus, with the new high building in, pressure gradient should increase so could see some nasty winds on the coast. Its not a classic/ideal setup, but snow begets snow, and it just wants to snow this year.I think this storm will be all inclusive, interior, coast, big cities, little town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 For what it's worth..the 87 hour 15z SREFS are an absolute wreck. Aside from a few members there is an extreme lack of organization and the members are clearly struggling with the dynamics this event is bringing to the table. It's probably going to be another 24 hours at least until we get a better picture as to what's going on with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Here is the visual on the sref mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 im just curious to see what the euro ens are showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro ensembles are running, out to 66 hours..so we will know shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 For what it's worth..the 87 hour 15z SREFS are an absolute wreck. Aside from a few members there is an extreme lack of organization and the members are clearly struggling with the dynamics this event is bringing to the table. It's probably going to be another 24 hours at least until we get a better picture as to what's going on with this event. can you remember any storms off the top of your head that the models struggled this mightily with?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 can you remember any storms off the top of your head that the models struggled this mightily with?? boxing day storm, no model picked it up till 60 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 1006mb low directly over HSE at 90 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Low is directly east of OC MD at 96 hrs..by a good bit. Snow for everybody, 850 line is off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Here is the visual on the sref mess Looks like majority are OTS! WTF. I thought that we'd seen the worst of the model flip flop already this winter now this mess!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Low is directly east of OC MD at 96 hrs..by a good bit. Snow for everybody, 850 line is off the coast. well it backs the operational and continues the 0z support, thats good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Sub 1000 low pretty much tracks directly over the benchmark. Good amount of snow from PHL northeast to NYC and SNE. 850 line is SE of Nantucket at that time. Surface a bit warm like the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Sref us view. Very interesting progression. They are clearly fast, and there are some amped up solutions. Very complex setup. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PRSUS_15z/srefloop.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Low is directly east of OC MD at 96 hrs..by a good bit. Snow for everybody, 850 line is off the coast. Sounds like ensembles are faster than the OP by 6-12 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 if this was december, this would be rain hands down. But since we are in late january that may save us for getting wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Sub 1000 low pretty much tracks directly over the benchmark. Good amount of snow from PHL northeast to NYC and SNE. 850 line is SE of Nantucket at that time. Surface a bit warm like the OP. How far north and west does the precip shield get? Similar to the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Sub 1000 low pretty much tracks directly over the benchmark. Good amount of snow from PHL northeast to NYC and SNE. 850 line is SE of Nantucket at that time. Surface a bit warm like the OP. Any idea how the ensembles look further south and west, hope they are a little further west then the op for places west of DC. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Any idea how the ensembles look further south and west, hope they are a little further west then the op for places west of DC. Thanks. I'd have to say they are pretty close to the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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