RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 i think the precip shield to the NW is due the storm strengthening while the H ships SE into the GL and sort of compresses into the coastal, prob good amount of dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:17 AM, rgwp96 said: a 50 mile shift to the west would be nice, what i dont understand is why are these storms precip shields so damn small to the nw. For a storm that looks to track just SE of the benchmark on this run and no real overrunning high to the north, that's about the extent you would expect with the snow shield. They won't make it that far in with a low taking that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:18 AM, Ridingtime said: Timeframe wise is this still showing a Tuesday-Wednesday thing? Or is it pushed off now to the main stuff on Thurs? 21Z Wed to about 12z Thurs. Sound familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:16 AM, whiteout said: Of course you would this run gives the same old areas the big snows like all year, while the interior continues to get the shaft. I think PA is fine with this one, storm is coming. I think ultimately most of NJ/NYC/Cities will deal with some rain/mix but beggining to think at least 1/2 the storm could be snow, and be significant in the cities and west. I like the new high to the NW starting to build and once north of the M/D line everyone should benefit from the storm starting to intrain some of that fresh cold air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:18 AM, tombo82685 said: basically it looks like we want this event later now...it went from monday to tues/wed...now on the gfs its late wed into thurs lol. The later right now seems the best if you want snow,. Yup, and gives the models another 24-36 hours to flippity-flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:18 AM, tombo82685 said: basically it looks like we want this event later now...it went from monday to tues/wed...now on the gfs its late wed into thurs lol. The later right now seems the best if you want snow,. I would agree. The later it hits, the longer we have to get that pesky high out of the way, and have its associated S wind component shut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:19 AM, TheTrials said: 21Z tuesday to about 12z Wednesday. Sound familiar? gfs is 21z wed now for start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I noticed the OP isn't as cold as the ensembles, looks like a classic race between the cold air and the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:20 AM, tombo82685 said: gfs is 21z wed now for start time. just fixed it. saw that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:20 AM, tombo82685 said: gfs is 21z wed now for start time. So that would most likely mean my 5 pm overseas flight I have scheduled on Wed is going to take off and I am going to miss this thing or not? I still need to learn better the z time language Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The old delayed and denied would not apply here. Slower is better now as its much slower and the whole playing field changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:19 AM, jm1220 said: For a storm that looks to track just SE of the benchmark on this run and no real overrunning high to the north, that's about the extent you would expect with the snow shield. They won't make it that far in with a low taking that track. Im guessing you like what you see on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:22 AM, Ridingtime said: So that would most likely mean my 5 pm overseas flight I have scheduled on Wed is going to take off and I am going to miss this thing or not? I still need to learn better the z time language While we're on standard time, just subtract 5. 21-5 = 16, or 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:22 AM, Ridingtime said: So that would most likely mean my 5 pm overseas flight I have scheduled on Wed is going to take off and I am going to miss this thing or not? I still need to learn better the z time language 21z is 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:16 AM, whiteout said: Of course you would this run gives the same old areas the big snows like all year, while the interior continues to get the shaft. Have you guys been getting shafted recently? I couldn't tell..you guys barely talk about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:19 AM, TheTrials said: 21Z Wed to about 12z Thurs. Sound familiar? Just subtract 5 hours for east coast time so 4 PM Wed to 7 AM Thurs..... I guess its not a long drawn out storm anymore and it occurring at night really helps us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:25 AM, earthlight said: Have you guys been getting shafted recently? I couldn't tell..you guys barely talk about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If this were correct, props to some of the gefs which saw that new high coming in. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:25 AM, earthlight said: Have you guys been getting shafted recently? I couldn't tell..you guys barely talk about it LOL, John. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Looks like the GFS is a 5-9" snowfall for the NYC area....I think there is a very high risk of 5"+ snowfall for the area....And 12"+ is not out of the question. To be honest...I think it is more likely that we either get 15" of snow or barely any snow...instead of a light to moderate snowfall here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 sv snow maps show 4-8 for nyc..phl has a blob of 8 inches or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:28 AM, WintersGrasp said: Looks like the GFS is a 5-9" snowfall for the NYC area....I think there is a very high risk of 5"+ snowfall for the area....And 12"+ is not out of the question. To be honest...I think it is more likely that we either get 15" of snow or barely any snow...instead of a light to moderate snowfall here. I agree-- MECS or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RkTec Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Edit: Sorry wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:23 AM, A-L-E-X said: Im guessing you like what you see on the GFS I know I do. we need to hit a homerun to get snow here in this setup...and the GFS keeps wanting to align the stars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:29 AM, tombo82685 said: sv snow maps show 4-8 for nyc..phl has a blob of 8 inches or so Where does the R/S line setup on this run? There must be a sharp cutoff somewhere in South Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Euro caves to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:25 AM, earthlight said: Have you guys been getting shafted recently? I couldn't tell..you guys barely talk about it You are dam right about that, we can never get our posts recorded because of the NYC and or coastal people who are posting with "I wish I had an oscar meyer snow wiener" or they are too busy driving around in their wiener mobiles with their wiener whistles being blown. Sorry you begged for this response Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Euro is good, though........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:25 AM, earthlight said: Have you guys been getting shafted recently? I couldn't tell..you guys barely talk about it Nice. Just continue to rub it in our face. Good luck with your snow to rain that will show tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Here is ukie at 96, looks close to gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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