NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NAM and EURO are wrapped up and west. GFS and SREF are weaker and east. Who will prevail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 You really have to expect the GFS to jump to the other solutions within the next 5 runs. I said last night that coastal sections have to worry....hopefully Washington DC, to Allentown to Hartford don't have to worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 People do realize the Euro ensembles are much faster and a touch east of the OP euro right...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 You really have to expect the GFS to jump to the other solutions within the next 5 runs. I said last night that coastal sections have to worry....hopefully Washington DC, to Allentown to Hartford don't have to worry Unfortunately I agree. Normally at this range, we'd be talking about the GFS's SE bias. So if you correct for that, you end up with a EURO/GGEM solution. But I hope I'm wrong about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 You really have to expect the GFS to jump to the other solutions within the next 5 runs. I said last night that coastal sections have to worry....hopefully Washington DC, to Allentown to Hartford don't have to worry The GFS would likely lose the storm for a run or two before simply switching over to the other models....I'd expect it to show some sort of strung out near non existent storm for one run before it moved everything later and more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The GFS would likely lose the storm for a run or two before simply switching over to the other models....I'd expect it to show some sort of strung out near non existent storm for one run before it moved everything later and more amplified. Yeah, that seems to happen on an 6/18z run(the lack of a storm) then the flip on a 0/12z run. BTW...12z GFS has started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The one thing that troubles me reading these message boards, and I have expressed this in private messages, is that everyone(not including the mets who tend to be pretty un-biased for the most pt) is very emotional and will try to get their area to be in the "jackpot". I include myself in that. What's super frustrating to me, is to read how everyone is wishing and wishing this storm further east so that they can be in the hvy snows where people in my area have been screwed. There are close friends of mine(independent plow drivers, ski operators, etc.) who rely on the snow for their livelihood and to actively root against them is hard for me to take without getting angry at this posters. It's also hard because I am a weenie like them and love the snowfall. It's hard to see storm after storm miss. There is consistent meteorological reasoning and models that show the perhaps NYC and the coastal areas may not be in the jackpot zone. What if the GFS showed the wrapped up solution the euro and ggem have? Will those same people who are propping it up as Gospel be throwing it out like they are the euro and ggem? FWIW, the 12z NAM at 84 is going to show a wrapped up solution if it went beyond 84 hours. Ensembles are going to be less wrapped up and further east because they are MEANS and AVERAGES of all the runs (most 50+ runs) and to expect full agreement for a storm that is 4-5 days away is absurd. I am currently post restricted so I know I am wasting a post on this but I needed to get it out there. I think all people who read and post this stuff on this stuff should know this stuff. I am still awaiting the snow bliss that almost everyone here that posts in this thread have experienced. Maybe someone else can join the party.. Who knows? By Monday AM when all the players are on the field so to speak, maybe it will show an easterly solution. If that happens, I know someone that will be looking for a new hobby. Pete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I really like JB's take on this upcoming storm....rain for the coastal areas a fight in the big cities and more snow and ice further N and W. Now although I am a bit N and W I am not far enough to escape what I expect to be a very messy (ie not all snow event). I am expecting a nice front end thump then a prolonged period of ZR/IP and some chilly rain to top it off. I like JB's theory that each major winter event so far this year has gone further west with each storm and this one will continue the trend. I really think this will be a great storm for the inland folks who have missed out. DC, ABE, Tamaqua, Hazleton, SWB etc. Paul www.chescowx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dale803 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 come on look at the NAM...do you seriously think the high NW of main in SE canada(hour 78) will move to 1000 miles offshore(hour 84) in the matter of 6 hours.. The one thing that troubles me reading these message boards, and I have expressed this in private messages, is that everyone(not including the mets who tend to be pretty un-biased for the most pt) is very emotional and will try to get their area to be in the "jackpot". I include myself in that. What's super frustrating to me, is to read how everyone is wishing and wishing this storm further east so that they can be in the hvy snows where people in my area have been screwed. There are close friends of mine(independent plow drivers, ski operators, etc.) who rely on the snow for their livelihood and to actively root against them is hard for me to take without getting angry at this posters. It's also hard because I am a weenie like them and love the snowfall. It's hard to see storm after storm miss. There is consistent meteorological reasoning and models that show the perhaps NYC and the coastal areas may not be in the jackpot zone. What if the GFS showed the wrapped up solution the euro and ggem have? Will those same people who are propping it up as Gospel be throwing it out like they are the euro and ggem? FWIW, the 12z NAM at 84 is going to show a wrapped up solution if it went beyond 84 hours. Ensembles are going to be less wrapped up and further east because they are MEANS and AVERAGES of all the runs (most 50+ runs) and to expect full agreement for a storm that is 4-5 days away is absurd. I am currently post restricted so I know I am wasting a post on this but I needed to get it out there. I think all people who read and post this stuff on this stuff should know this stuff. I am still awaiting the snow bliss that almost everyone here that posts in this thread have experienced. Maybe someone else can join the party.. Who knows? By Monday AM when all the players are on the field so to speak, maybe it will show an easterly solution. If that happens, I know someone that will be looking for a new hobby. Pete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The one thing that troubles me reading these message boards, and I have expressed this in private messages, is that everyone(not including the mets who tend to be pretty un-biased for the most pt) is very emotional and will try to get their area to be in the "jackpot". I include myself in that. What's super frustrating to me, is to read how everyone is wishing and wishing this storm further east so that they can be in the hvy snows where people in my area have been screwed. There are close friends of mine(independent plow drivers, ski operators, etc.) who rely on the snow for their livelihood and to actively root against them is hard for me to take without getting angry at this posters. It's also hard because I am a weenie like them and love the snowfall. It's hard to see storm after storm miss. There is consistent meteorological reasoning and models that show the perhaps NYC and the coastal areas may not be in the jackpot zone. What if the GFS showed the wrapped up solution the euro and ggem have? Will those same people who are propping it up as Gospel be throwing it out like they are the euro and ggem? FWIW, the 12z NAM at 84 is going to show a wrapped up solution if it went beyond 84 hours. Ensembles are going to be less wrapped up and further east because they are MEANS and AVERAGES of all the runs (most 50+ runs) and to expect full agreement for a storm that is 4-5 days away is absurd. I am currently post restricted so I know I am wasting a post on this but I needed to get it out there. I think all people who read and post this stuff on this stuff should know this stuff. I am still awaiting the snow bliss that almost everyone here that posts in this thread have experienced. Maybe someone else can join the party.. Who knows? By Monday AM when all the players are on the field so to speak, maybe it will show an easterly solution. If that happens, I know someone that will be looking for a new hobby. Pete Every OP (except for the GFS) have the system wrapped up. Every ensemble however, has the system much less amplified. EVERY ensemble. The SREF, the GEFS, the EURO ens, and the GGEM ensembles. One group will prevail, but people dismissing the a further east solution are way too premature, and I think even them could admit that. As for what you posted above: Speaking on behalf of the coastal plain. We realize that you folks have been completely shafted this year. All I can say is that this is payback. I remember time and time again watching systems along the coast become a mixed bag for us and big snow for central PA. I was frustrated, and so were the rest of us. Seasonal trends are seasonal trends. Some times it's just not your year. Deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I really like JB's take on this upcoming storm....rain for the coastal areas a fight in the big cities and more snow and ice further N and W. Now although I am a bit N and W I am not far enough to escape what I expect to be a very messy (ie not all snow event). I am expecting a nice front end thump then a prolonged period of ZR/IP and some chilly rain to top it off. I like JB's theory that each major winter event so far this year has gone further west with each storm and this one will continue the trend. I really think this will be a great storm for the inland folks who have missed out. DC, ABE, Tamaqua, Hazleton, SWB etc. Paul www.chescowx.com Those places did pretty good compared to areas closer to the coast during the last storm, as it pretty much rained along the NJ coast. ABE got 4.4 inches of snow while ACY only had a Trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Chesco...what's the wxsim saying...or is it too far out...Are there any chances of this looking like a sleet fest that the 2007 VD storm was now that we are talking about mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Those places did pretty good compared to areas closer to the coast during the last storm, as it pretty much rained along the NJ coast. ABE got 4.4 inches of snow while ACY only had a Trace. Mike, that is an example of how much last year f'ed up the system. Before last year, 4.4" of snow would have been great. Now it's nothing. If 10" of snow isn't forecasted for anyone from Wash D.C. north, it isn't enough. People need to enjoy the storm, not complain that they had ONLY 12" while brother Jim 4 miles away had 18". Reality check is in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The one thing that troubles me reading these message boards, and I have expressed this in private messages, is that everyone(not including the mets who tend to be pretty un-biased for the most pt) is very emotional and will try to get their area to be in the "jackpot". I include myself in that. What's super frustrating to me, is to read how everyone is wishing and wishing this storm further east so that they can be in the hvy snows where people in my area have been screwed. There are close friends of mine(independent plow drivers, ski operators, etc.) who rely on the snow for their livelihood and to actively root against them is hard for me to take without getting angry at this posters. It's also hard because I am a weenie like them and love the snowfall. It's hard to see storm after storm miss. There is consistent meteorological reasoning and models that show the perhaps NYC and the coastal areas may not be in the jackpot zone. What if the GFS showed the wrapped up solution the euro and ggem have? Will those same people who are propping it up as Gospel be throwing it out like they are the euro and ggem? FWIW, the 12z NAM at 84 is going to show a wrapped up solution if it went beyond 84 hours. Ensembles are going to be less wrapped up and further east because they are MEANS and AVERAGES of all the runs (most 50+ runs) and to expect full agreement for a storm that is 4-5 days away is absurd. I am currently post restricted so I know I am wasting a post on this but I needed to get it out there. I think all people who read and post this stuff on this stuff should know this stuff. I am still awaiting the snow bliss that almost everyone here that posts in this thread have experienced. Maybe someone else can join the party.. Who knows? By Monday AM when all the players are on the field so to speak, maybe it will show an easterly solution. If that happens, I know someone that will be looking for a new hobby. Pete Totally agree, I think folks to the east have been spoiled by the last 2 winters and they expect large snowfalls every storm when in an average winter it is smaller storms with maybe one large storm threat. I also understand that in the past these are the same folks that always had to deal with the dreaded rain snow line, so I understand their enthusiasm this year. Living out here in the Reading area it seems we are usually somewhere in the middle when storms are off the coast far enough we get the shaft and when the are just inland we usually have P-type issues. Working at PD for 20 years I have been through it all and one thing Ive learned you cant change the weather to what you prefer otherwise Id be a millionaire. Just sit back and enjoy reading the models and do what you like as a hobby. I for one enjoy reading all the analysis on this site to the point I sneek my laptop on my truck and every chance I get, I sneek a peek. keep up the good work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
56er Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Those places did pretty good compared to areas closer to the coast during the last storm, as it pretty much rained along the NJ coast. ABE got 4.4 inches of snow while ACY only had a Trace. ACY had only a trace, and the snowpack is all but gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Mike, that is an example of how much last year f'ed up the system. Before last year, 4.4" of snow would have been great. Now it's nothing. If 10" of snow isn't forecasted for anyone from Wash D.C. north, it isn't enough. People need to enjoy the storm, not complain that they had ONLY 12" while brother Jim 4 miles away had 18". Reality check is in order. that is true...I even find myself expecting 6-12 from every system. Compared to last year...we have had nothing. Been so used to warning criteria storms that these advisories are bumming me out. Guess I should be glad this isn't the winter of 94-95 when we got nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 thru 60 GFS and NAM about the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 come on look at the NAM...do you seriously think the high NW of main in SE canada(hour 78) will move to 1000 miles offshore(hour 84) in the matter of 6 hours.. I believe it will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS and NAM look much more similar now at 500 mb at 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Has a Gulf low at 78 hrs. Caves to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Storm is rapidly developing over the northern gulf coast at 72 hrs. Looks like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Low over SE Georgia at 84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Major changes on the GFS, way more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Um in the midst of all the regional bickering the GFS at 60 looks like it is trying to dig more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Sub 1004 along coastal GA at 87 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Question for you....does PennDot not brine the roads as much any more in Berks. Haven't seen it as much this year. Brining is usually done when the snow fall will be mostly an overnight event, thus no daytime heating from the sun on the pavement to assist melting or binding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Is the timing about the same as the euro now too? Or would the euro still be a day behind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yup shifts to Euro - no surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Sub 1000mb near coastal SC at 90 hrs.0 850 line up to Cape May, but near the coast south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS is actually going to look the UKMET not the euro. It has gone towards the miller A idea but its not going to bring the low up into the chesapeake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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