CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 We can probably be relatively confident its wrong. Agreed..lol, but look how much warmth it wraps up despite it being so far se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Man if we could somehow pull a Dec 92 type event out of this...I would probably buy all of yours and Megan's beers next Saturday Nice qualifier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS is very weird. It looks to want to turn the corner, but another nrn stream disturbance wants to try and give it the boot it seems..or at least prevent it from turning north. It looked as though several 00z gfs ens members have another disturbance "kicker" that comes in quickly around D5, more pronounced anyway...maybe some spacing issue? I was going to make a post earlier this AM but didn't want to sound ridiculous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It actually gains enough latitude while offshore to give Eastern SNE some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The storm has a monster circulation with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The storm has a monster circulation with it. Lol...no kidding. Boston is going to get a decent snowstorm on this run despite that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Very little precip in the cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 ME gets whacked pretty good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 awful model though, LOL. It's still moist east fetch and snowing here with a low 1500 miles south of us (dirty read of the 126hr), then a norlun trof touching ACK... huge signal for a storm for SNE at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Lol...no kidding. Boston is going to get a decent snowstorm on this run despite that track. Did you see the 18hrs of overrunning light snows for sne it has prior to it? I wonder how the ensembles will look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Did you see the 18hrs of overrunning light snows for sne it has prior to it? I wonder how the ensembles will look. It seems all models have the overrunning stuff now. Like a 1-2" appetizer before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Very little precip in the cold sector. It looks weird, I would not worry one bit. This run doesn't change my thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 lol ... what a bomb. So, it has made its move to its ensembles, AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If you look at 84h on the NAM, you can see that northern stream disturbance. That may be enough to kick the storm off the coast vs an inside runner. But who knows how you extrapolate the NAM. It could kick the storm out too far like the GFS. That northern interaction seems to be key here GFS is very weird. It looks to want to turn the corner, but another nrn stream disturbance wants to try and give it the boot it seems..or at least prevent it from turning north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Jan 96 had a nice overrunning appetizer if I recall correctly It seems all models have the overrunning stuff now. Like a 1-2" appetizer before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 It looks weird, I would not worry one bit. This run doesn't change my thinking. Looks like a pretty good thump just inland from the coast back to 495 say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If you look at 84h on the NAM, you can see that northern stream disturbance. That may be enough to kick the storm off the coast vs an inside runner. But who knows how you extrapolate the NAM. It could kick the storm out too far like the GFS. That northern interaction seems to be key here I think the weenie DGEX tried doing that. There was a kicker coming down the pipe, but again..it may not be for real. It's impossible to tell this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 BOS gets like a foot of tree clinging, shovel breaking snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looks like a pretty good thump just inland from the coast back to 495 say. It makes Mica Vim Toot toot his tug horn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 gfs ends up about 150 nm SE of the benchmark. Who wants to bet the ensemble mean is NW of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 SNE has the best thread. Good people, good info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 ME is going to be buried after next weekend if the 12z GFS verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Man if we could somehow pull a Dec 92 type event out of this...I would probably buy all of yours and Megan's beers next Saturday what time is everyone getting there Saturday? Turns out I can go during the day... just need to be back by 6 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 12z GFS still advertising the Arctic sets up shop in NE for the first week of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ME is going to be buried after next weekend if the 12z GFS verifies. Areas that got bombed yesterday downeast would get smoked even worse. 40" in a week? Of course, this isn't the end solution, but it's fun to contemplate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 LOL huge move toward the Euro ... very very similar at hr84 ... and then just when you thought the game was over, the GFS decides not to be a team player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 what time is everyone getting there Saturday? Turns out I can go during the day... just need to be back by 6 or so I will show up between 2 and 3, probably closer to 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wow, GGEM looks terrible...apps runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Ensembles look very near the BM and then east of the Cape. There is a good amount of spread to the south and west at hr 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 They aren't terribly different from 00z last night..maybe a bit further sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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