MaineJayhawk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I feel pretty good Not as concerned about ptype issues now, Rev? You were kinda mopey yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 K, weenies....I'm out; hopefully the Rev can send me some sermons via txt.....halleluja, holy snow, bruthas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Not as concerned about ptype issues ,now, Rev? You were kinda mopey yesterday. I still am somewhat concerned..but I think the pattern argues for the trogh axis to end up farther east today than it looked yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Not as concerned about ptype issues now, Rev? You were kinda mopey yesterday. Euro op might change him to crap, but he still gets a good dumping prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Op is T1279/91 levs (~16km)....ens are double that with T639/62 levs (~32km). IOW the EC ens have higher resolution than the op GFS. Thanks Brian. I need to log that in my brain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Dick Tolleris weighs in I see DCA and BWI changing over the Rain… for some period of time. Heavy snow may fall there before the change. Fredercik and Lessburg could stay all snow. This also applies to southern NJ and Philly… NYC Long Island … MAYBE coastal CT…. and southeast Mass. Again the 18z GFS is seriously flawed and not good enough to blow my snot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 There must be a bat signal that dendrite sees when somebody has a resolution or core sample question. *POW* he's there. My batphone rang.Anyways...here's the H5 hgt error for the GFS, EC, GFS ens ctrl (green), EC ens ctrl (blue) (in that respective order) for days 4 and 5 recently. The EC ens are a hair better than the op at d5, but from 0-4d the op is actually a hair better than its ensembles. I guess we're in that 4-5 day window now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro op might change him to crap, but he still gets a good dumping prior. Just say NO to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Dick Tolleris weighs in I see DCA and BWI changing over the Rain… for some period of time. Heavy snow may fall there before the change. Fredercik and Lessburg could stay all snow. This also applies to southern NJ and Philly… NYC Long Island … MAYBE coastal CT…. and southeast Mass. Again the 18z GFS is seriously flawed and not good enough to blow my snot on. ecmwf.int *ALERT* *ALERT* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Jesus, the GFS and NAM are so different even out to 42h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Last year the M/A crowd wished double middle finger upon NE, final revenge is most sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Waaaaay too far ahead of yourself...ensure p-type, then contemplate deformation. No I'm not. Dry slot is a synoptic scale feature largely related to the evolution of the mid level low. It has even more right to be considered than weenies debating over one degree variations in 2m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS is way different than 06z. Should be more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Last year the M/A crowd wished double middle finger upon NE, final revenge is most sweet. Does this actually occupy your brain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS is way different than 06z. Should be more amplified. It still amazing the differences between it and the NAM...this might be a good solution for us though. Won't be uber amped like the 12z NAM and probably won't be out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS is way different than 06z. Should be more amplified. Yeah, but not as much as the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looks similar to the 00z Euro thru 60h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It still amazing the differences between it and the NAM...this might be a good solution for us though. Won't be uber amped like the 12z NAM and probably won't be out to sea. I think it may be too close for comfort for me, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Gfs caves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well at least the GFS is ditching the weird pseudo Miller B idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Does this actually occupy your brain? yes. I feel like a Jets fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Not a great sign to have the GFS that close in. Would rather it was OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think it may be too close for comfort for me, but we'll see. Unless that little nrn stream vort tries to keep confluence over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 yes. I feel like a Jets fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Not a great sign to have the GFS that close in. Would rather it was OTS We are going to have to flirt with mild solutions during this threat tracking...its the price to pay for trying to get a monster Dec '92-esque storm that hugs the coast. There is a ton of upside, but plenty of danger of tainting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Lol....GFS is going to go like straight east off SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Unless that little nrn stream vort tries to keep confluence over us. Yeah, maybe that s/w can act like the kicker we dicsussed yesterday, preventing this from coming too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS is very weird. It looks to want to turn the corner, but another nrn stream disturbance wants to try and give it the boot it seems..or at least prevent it from turning north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 We are going to have to flirt with mild solutions during this threat tracking...its the price to pay for trying to get a monster Dec '92-esque storm that hugs the coast. There is a ton of upside, but plenty of danger of tainting. Man if we could somehow pull a Dec 92 type event out of this...I would probably buy all of yours and Megan's beers next Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS is very weird. It looks to want to turn the corner, but another nrn stream disturbance wants to try and give it the boot it seems..or at least prevent it from turning north. We can probably be relatively confident its wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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