40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 DT's "1st guess" is essentially the 1st 12z EURO. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That DT map is just way way wrong imo. Tough to believe it would get suppressed that far south without a block. Im going with a barnstable track sorry phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm sorry I haven't been as involved as you guys, but .... who thought THAT?! No one called for it....but some of the most extreme soloutions hinted around at that type of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Exactly what I was thinking....not sure why told me that I'd be thinking HECS at this time, tmw.....this is trending into a mod event with p-type concerns. I was poking you. 6-12 is an expectation that is not unreasonable given the guidance but not set in stone either. My biggest concern is midlevel taint. If we can avoid that, there may be widespread jackpots of 12+ but the signal is not as strong for that at this moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Is there anyway to know temps on the UKIE? The track looks good and all.. but what about the temps or 850s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 DT almost always overforecasts for SNE when it's going to be a bigger storm here than the mid-Atlantic. It's an overcompensation mechanism. He'll spend days spewing profanities at people then throw up a 12+ swath. Though he usually cuts a dividing line right through Boston. not a good post here. It's personal and non-constructive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Is there anyway to know temps on the UKIE? The track looks good and all.. but what about the temps or 850s? Do you have a link to the track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think he bust way low up here....... what are you thinking for NNE? I'm not all that impressed with qpf amounts even though we will have nice ratios... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That DT map is just way way wrong imo. Tough to believe it would get suppressed that far south without a block. Im going with a barnstable track sorry phil Made no sense to me, I don't see any model thats has that type of track right now that would warrant those totals here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Made no sense to me, I don't see any model thats has that type of track right now that would warrant those totals here.. I think its mainly aimed at sne weenies and not much focus on nne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 No one called for it....but some of the most extreme soloutions hinted around at that type of QPF. Verification, or modeled? No model on this current had or has 4-7" of liq equiv over the southwest 'burbs of BOS, and that is what happened in '92. Let's not spin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 what are you thinking for NNE? I'm not all that impressed with qpf amounts even though we will have nice ratios... Well, If it tracks inside the benchmark 6-12" 8-14" would not be out of the question, What is bothersome is the lack of precip on the NW side of the storm, There is a pretty sharp cuttoff......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Do you have a link to the track? 84 -- http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/2011012300/slp14.png 96 -- http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/2011012300/slp16.png 108 -- http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/2011012300/slp18.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think he bust way low up here....... 3-6" for my area, basically nothing for Maine, meh and narrow 12+ stripe on a forecast at this range seems ambitious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think its mainly aimed at sne weenies and not much focus on nne. Yeah he probably didn't put much thought into the NNE section of the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 http://www.theweathe.../habyhints/127/ That's the link I've used in the past to understand them better but in this case I really am not seeing (or understanding) why this isn't negatively tilted...H5 the isobars appear to be digging to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think its mainly aimed at sne weenies and not much focus on nne. Pretty obvious with Maine missing the northern part of the state on that map........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I was poking you. 6-12 is an expectation that is not unreasonable given the guidance but not set in stone either. My biggest concern is midlevel taint. If we can avoid that, there may be widespread jackpots of 12+ but the signal is not as strong for that at this moment. Bingo.....we are in agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wow, DT must have fallen asleep in his chair and dragged the mouse south as he was filling in NH and Maine. I am uncertain abouta lot of things with this storm, but one thing I do know: DT is going to bust of grand proportions in Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well, If it tracks inside the benchmark 6-12" 8-14" would not be out of the question, What is bothersome is the lack of precip on the NW side of the storm, There is a pretty sharp cuttoff......... Oh okay. Yeah, I'm in northeast VT at school and I'm just learning the effects of SECS up here. Hoping to squeeze out 3-6" of fluff up here, but I dont like the qpf output for up here. Just want a decent storm here at school since I'm studying meteorology. (Even though I got spoiled this winter at home for break) lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 84 -- http://moe.met.fsu.e...12300/slp14.png 96 -- http://moe.met.fsu.e...12300/slp16.png 108 -- http://moe.met.fsu.e...12300/slp18.png Thanks Yoda. That looks pretty cold with that HP to the north draining in. UKMET has had that solution or variation thereof for several runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wow, DT must have fallen asleep in his chair and dragged the mouse south as he was filling in NH and Maine. I am uncertain abouta lot of things with this storm, but one thing I do know: DT is going to bust of grand proportions in Maine. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Verification, or modeled? No model on this current had or has 4-7" of liq equiv over the southwest 'burbs of BOS, and that is what happened in '92. Let's not spin. John, I'm not spinning anything.....last night's EURO would have given sections of the elevated interior 30"+......and that is what happened in '92....period. Will and I spent the better part of an hr discussing it. Would it match it in QPF, no....but snow, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Oh okay. Yeah, I'm in northeast VT at school and I'm just learning the effects of SECS up here. Hoping to squeeze out 3-6" of fluff up here, but I dont like the qpf output for up here. Just want a decent storm here at school since I'm studying meteorology. (Even though I got spoiled this winter at home for break) lol It will be tough getting snow back to you there based on this storm currently..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The good doctor is crunching numbers out now to 12...won't be long before we have a verdict for tonight. I suspect given GFS/CMC/UKMET that it is clustered around the area of ACK to the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It will be tough getting snow back to you there based on this storm currently..... Yeah I know. QPF output is .2-.4 at best up here with temps around 20 (3-6" with ratios). Hopefully this thing trends west, which is certainly possible given seasonal trends inside 96hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm still blown away by MAV's -17 for a low at KBED tomorrow night....and -5 at KBOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah I know. QPF output is .2-.4 at best up here with temps around 20 (3-6" with ratios). Hopefully this thing trends west, which is certainly possible given seasonal trends inside 96hrs. I'd lean 10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Jerrys 2001 winter analog http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/snowrpts/FE060114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 John, I'm not spinning anything.....last night's EURO would have given sections of the elevated interior 30"+......and that is what happened in '92....period. Will and I spent the better part of an hr discussing it. Would it match it in QPF, no....but snow, yes. I see what you think - but you are wrong. '92 had a huge liq equiv that last night's Euro didn't touch. You can't disconnect the two - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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