CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm not feeling the "widespread" HECS vibe any longer..... 2.1\2 Prob too quick for a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm going out to walk the dog in a moment....if you meet me I'll explain the whole thing. I'll wait 5 minutes to see if you respond.... LOL Fella, not sure my girlfriend would react well to my walking out for this on a Saturday night... this exciting winter has already caused tension, though it's certainly been worth it True the EURO runs are looking better today, and the GFS has trended west but not closer than the BM... I just don't feel easy about the ETA track with such strong miller A's and with a well offshore HP. We had a good dose of changeover and rain Jan 18, and even Jan 12 started off with 32F slop that cut back ratios in the Boston area... I be happier with a scraper this week. It's always frustrating to have precipitation-type issues just 2 days after record low temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Jerry and Steve thinking HECS? I hope not. System is not moving slow enough for that, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Prob too quick for a HECS. 6-12...build on the pack. Trend is good at this moment. Some taint issues but still a decent amount of snow on most of the guidance. Low level winds appear favorable but mid levels are at times problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah, I don't see this thing cutting accross my area right now. Probably inside the BM. I agree, I think ultimately thats where it will end up..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 LOL Fella, not sure my girlfriend would react well to my walking out for this on a Saturday night... this exciting winter has already caused tension, though it's certainly been worth it True the EURO runs are looking better today, and the GFS has trended west but not closer than the BM... I just don't feel easy about the ETA track with such strong miller A's and with a well offshore HP. We had a good dose of changeover and rain Jan 18, and even Jan 12 started off with 32F slop that cut back ratios in the Boston area... I be happier with a scraper this week. It's always frustrating to have precipitation-type issues just 2 days after record low temps. My wife accepts the illness...."for better or worse...in sickness and health.." I left 1/18 while it was snowing and was out of the area for the rain but that was signaled to be even less snow/ice right up to the event vs what occurred. I think we will have trouble staying all snow but will do ok. 1/12 in the end dumped alot of snow on us with high water content staying power. I nearly croaked shoveling it but here I am asking for me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Jerry and Steve thinking HECS? I hope not. System is not moving slow enough for that, SECS...6-12 type of deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Maybe Craigslist.....or call Randy Randy's schedule is full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 not really feeling this one for northern NE except Maine and southeast NH. any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 SECS...6-12 type of deal. Yes, start there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Jerry and Steve thinking HECS? I hope not. System is not moving slow enough for that, 12-15 but caveat for more Qpf in a hurry ie 40 mm is nothing to sneeze at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 One thing's for certain, whatever you got for snow, you got - it ain't going anywhere. And whatever you get, you get, it ain't going no where, either. Probably the best combination of total winter conditions many of you have experienced in many years underway, probably the best ever for some younger users. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think this system would be slower moving than what is being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ensemble mean precip: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep24108.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think this system would be slower moving than what is being shown. Concur but I think you are way west, BM nearby seems to be where this wants to travel, sneaky HP feeds cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Color 00z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Concur but I think you are way west, BM nearby seems to be where this wants to travel, sneaky HP feeds cold I certainly could be too far west but given what we have seen this winter with the negative tilts, west is the way to go. With most of the other systems at this time range we were seeing models track the systems either just inside the benchmark or just outside it...but once we got inside 3 days we really start to see the models shift west and we've ended up with tracks inside the benchamark, even far enough west to produce some precip type issues back to parts of SE CT. I still think we would still get a pounding of snow here, however, the jackpot totals would probably be off to our north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I will take Sammys small 12-17 zone NW of the track, thank you. that is if I do not get a small area of entrained dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I certainly could be too far west but given what we have seen this winter with the negative tilts, west is the way to go. With most of the other systems at this time range we were seeing models track the systems either just inside the benchmark or just outside it...but once we got inside 3 days we really start to see the models shift west and we've ended up with tracks inside the benchamark, even far enough west to produce some precip type issues back to parts of SE CT. I still think we would still get a pounding of snow here, however, the jackpot totals would probably be off to our north and west. Wiz again I do not know where you get this neg tilt, closing 5H, but the trough axis is not negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Concur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Prob too quick for a HECS. The fact that there are so many quirky facets to this are red flags, too.....like the limited qpf to the west side, peaking too far s.......not to say that we won't see a good snowstorm, but I think the Dec 1992 dreams can be put to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wiz again I do not know where you get this neg tilt, closing 5H, but the trough axis is not negative This looks negatively tilted to me...perhaps no? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_078.shtml Then this looks to be closed off at H5 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_084.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think he bust way low up here....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 SECS...6-12 type of deal. Exactly what I was thinking....not sure why told me that I'd be thinking HECS at this time, tmw.....this is trending into a mod event with p-type concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think he bust way low up here....... You must be out of his forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This looks negatively tilted to me...perhaps no? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_078.shtml Then this looks to be closed off at H5 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_084.shtml http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/127/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You must be out of his forecast area. Way out apparently....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 DT almost always overforecasts for SNE when it's going to be a bigger storm here than the mid-Atlantic. It's an overcompensation mechanism. He'll spend days spewing profanities at people then throw up a 12+ swath. Though he usually cuts a dividing line right through Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The fact that there are so many quirky facets to this are red flags, too.....like the limited qpf to the west side, peaking too far s.......not to say that we won't see a good snowstorm, but I think the Dec 1992 dreams can be put to bed. I'm sorry I haven't been as involved as you guys, but .... who thought THAT?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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