Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I will take Sammys small 12-17 zone NW of the track, thank you. that is if I do not get a small area of entrained dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I love this solution. I do, too, because it almost certainly won't take this track verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yes, it's clearly trucking NE. Out of curiousity, how far is ACK from the BM does anyone know precisely? Also what do you think of Okemo? I'm hearing it's kind of fu fu? It's ok. Not my cup of tea but it's got a lot of intermediate terain to spread out on. Heven't been in a few years. Your call is useless Slightly belligerent tonight, it's ok, I remember the first time I got drunk. What's your call? Put it out there so we can have another useless call. Your call or your wish? No. I actually think that's where this will end up and I think that might be to close even for me. I could see taint all the way back here with a strong enough system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I don't think GFS is done trending west fwiw. Would like it to slow or stop but think we may come another 50 miles in. I'd be ok with 50 miles closer....I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well, This run pretty much sucks the big one up here for ME/NH, Pretty sharp cuttoff to the west of the low on the qpf, We would need a track inside the benchmark or close to the cape to get any decent snows back even to the foothills...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 the 00z GFS gets a from me. Nice run for everyone. Closed off at all levels as it passes by. Bobby flick between NAM AND GFS at 84 on Twister they are not too different, watch how the collapse takes place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I do, too, because it almost certainly won't take this track verbatim. The gfs is right where we want it at the stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I do, too, because it almost certainly won't take this track verbatim. Amen!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ukie is west.. not sure exactly where but it's more amped than the GFS by 72 with more ridging ahead. I am pretty sure this will be rain along the coast. There's not much blocking and this is a powerful s/w. The ensemble means are pretty far west with a lot of them (something like half) turning to rain on the coast. You may be fooled by the color scheme? Actual hts are about the same out ahead. Color schemes are different scales for each model...look carefully... uk: Edit...hts over the OV are a bit higher but not a huge difference imho. gfs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm really becoming concerned for some major precip issues for much of the region, I think were going to see this one track well west...this one could be the big hit for those in northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I love Okemo midweek nonholiday, spacious, uncrowded and great for rec skiers like you and me We're playing around with the idea of it next weekend...change of pace. Seems nice, little fu fu for me but.... It's not wheat and chaff. The guy simply doesn't play well. That's why he works out of a closet. No normal workspace would have him. Certainly a talented Met but Agreed and it's a shame because I like the guy. He's pretty funny at times, just gets so freaking pissed off at people he doesnt know. Right over the BM. And yet still uncomfortably toasty. Interesting to me that we are seeing some movement east and clustering around the BM again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I do, too, because it almost certainly won't take this track verbatim. I know. Ill end up with rain and inland areas will get 12"+. Rinse wash repeat. I've gotten more satisfaction out of model runs than what has actually transpired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You may be fooled by the color scheme? Actual hts are about the same out ahead. Color schemes are different scales for each model...look carefully... ukie is a little more amped, but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The gfs is right where we want it at the stage. I didn't want to be weenie homer supreme, but yeah, that's exactly my thought process. No complaints at this end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Bobby flick between NAM AND GFS at 84 on Twister they are not too different, watch how the collapse takes place From a track perspective correct but from a temp perspective they are not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I know. Ill end up with rain and inland areas will get 12"+. Rinse wash repeat. I've gotten more satisfaction out of model runs than what has actually transpired. I saw news footage from Wareham this week and it looked like there was plenty of snow on the ground. What has been your total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You may be fooled by the color scheme? Actual hts are about the same out ahead. Color schemes are different scales for each model...look carefully... Nope.. just look at an overlay of the two. UK is color GFS is lines. You can see that each color contour is 100+ miles north of the corresponding GFS line contour in the ridging ahead of the storm. Also at the surface it's 1mb stronger and 100 miles farther north in AL/MS by 72 hours. It's not a huge difference, actual pretty decent agreement finally, but it's definitely a little more amped. We'll see when this comes out fully later, but I'm pretty sure it would be solidly west of the GFS (50-100), perhaps up to 200 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Nope.. just look at an overlay of the two. UK is color GFS is lines. You can see that each color contour is 100+ miles north of the corresponding GFS line contour in the ridging ahead of the storm. Also at the surface it's 1mb stronger and 100 miles farther north in AL/MS by 72 hours. I think all the difference are trivial except the position of the low. That may not be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I saw news footage from Wareham this week and it looked like there was plenty of snow on the ground. What has been your total? There had been solid snow cover all winter but nothing rediculous. I'd say about 2-3" depth. 24" for the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I know. Ill end up with rain and inland areas will get 12"+. Rinse wash repeat. I've gotten more satisfaction out of model runs than what has actually transpired. What's your current snowcover? I have about 4 inches on the ground here. I drove to the Warwick Mall less than 30 miles west/NW and I'd say the snowcover up there is quadruple what I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I don't understand the optimism here, as much as I'd like to believe it for the Boston metro area... what am I missing? GFS trending west towards the ETA solution that brings rain to much of SNE, a solution that the EURO had several runs ago. Even the benchmark track looks warm, but I fear this will track even closer. Northern NE sits good at this point, imo. I hope I'm wrong. I'd rather see a scraper than a soaker changing the city's deep snowbanks into glaciers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 There had been solid snow cover all winter but nothing rediculous. I'd say about 2-3" depth. 24" for the season That blows! Sorry. Too bad because in some years (1995-96, 2004-05, others) Wareham has cleaned up. My friend had a GF there for a few years and I used to visit in the winter during 95-96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I didn't want to be weenie homer supreme, but yeah, that's exactly my thought process. No complaints at this end. I want a 35" snowpack by friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The gfs is right where we want it at the stage. yes i agree this system looks great for maine..at this stage ....awesome first i thought you meant attelboro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I don't understand the optimism here, as much as I'd like to believe it for the Boston metro area... what am I missing? GFS trending west towards the ETA solution that brings rain to much of SNE, a solution that the EURO had several runs ago. Even the benchmark track looks warm, but I fear this will track even closer. Northern NE sits good at this point, imo. I hope I'm wrong. I'd rather see a scraper than a soaker changing the city's deep snowbanks into glaciers. I'm going out to walk the dog in a moment....if you meet me I'll explain the whole thing. I'll wait 5 minutes to see if you respond.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm going out to walk the dog in a moment....if you meet me I'll explain the whole thing. I'll wait 5 minutes to see if you respond.... Dead Elephants and Polar bears will dominate this convo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Over the BM. Verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I don't understand the optimism here, as much as I'd like to believe it for the Boston metro area... what am I missing? GFS trending west towards the ETA solution that brings rain to much of SNE, a solution that the EURO had several runs ago. Even the benchmark track looks warm, but I fear this will track even closer. Northern NE sits good at this point, imo. I hope I'm wrong. I'd rather see a scraper than a soaker changing the city's deep snowbanks into glaciers. Euro, GFS are both snowstorms for us. 12Z UKMET is probably as well. Now what will happen? Who knows? I expect at least one of these incoming storms to changeover...we can't go an entire winter with mainly snow events around here....or maybe we can.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That blows! Sorry. Too bad because in some years (1995-96, 2004-05, others) Wareham has cleaned up. My friend had a GF there for a few years and I used to visit in the winter during 95-96. The Cape is having a rough winter once you toss out the pre-Christmas surprise, but the Cape does a lot better than most people think. There aren't any statistics to back this up but if you check out all the PNS statements from BOX and Upton over the years you'll find the Cape gets more snow than the CT Shoreline from Clinton on east all the way to the South Coast of Rhode Island because when so many storms redevelop these areas shut off while the Cape continues snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 HPC desk says 2 inches for SNE and 2 inches for SE CNE. i like S VT for this storm........mt snow FTW http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=4&fcolor=wbg Wonder where in this set up with a HP not yet scooting in from the west (wednesday am) how far east the BL warmth gets? LL ESE FLOW past wachusett..?...monads?....GC Just verbatim HPC track how far west would BL "warmth" make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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