Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Not major, but I can't say I like the look of the s/w digging further SW into TX. I agree with everything you've said, the NAM is hideous for most of us at first bluff....but the pivot point is in PA and the warm air would get shut off similar to some other solutions...but not before it made it probably into our northern states. 850mb winds from Green Bay to Nova Scotia are SW to SSE....not usually a great premise for a big snow in SNE. Thankfully it's the NAM. My comments about 5h are through 48h...beyond that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Guess DTs stress is relieved ABOUT THE 0Z NAM -- model discussion NOT forecast: yes the 0z NAM is overdone... and YES it is way inland... and yes past 60 hrs the NAM is crap... BUT the NAM is NOT by itself here. Its does have the 12z Canadian & Ukmet with it and the previous runs of the Euro. MOREOVER the overall pattern over N America DOES support an inland track - just NOT to the extreme of the 0z NAM... I guess he has a point, but why does DT have a caps lock fetish for the words "does" and "not"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I guess he has a point, but why does DT have a caps lock fetish for the words "does" and "not"? He's irritated, for some reason he has a big investment in this one. Classic DT. Like I said I like the guy, and I think he has a lot of great ideas but he has a hard time separating out the wheat from the chaff at times. -- I kind of feel like we're going to see an extreme solution (for this winter) with this low...one that goes either west up into the region or a true BM type low. IMO, the NAM is heading NE, I actually think it ends up under us by a fair margin...but that's just me...IE towards the BM. -- GFS solution would appear to be heading towards the faster side through h42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 He's irritated, for some reason he has a big investment in this one. Classic DT. Like I said I like the guy, and I think he has a lot of great ideas but he has a hard time separating out the wheat from the chaff at times. -- I kind of feel like we're going to see an extreme solution (for this winter) with this low...one that goes either west up into the region or a true BM type low. IMO, the NAM is heading NE, I actually think it ends up under us by a fair margin...but that's just me...IE towards the BM. I agree and you can see it on the last few panels.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You are going against a consensus of about 100 super computer runs, good luck I'm perfectly prepared to change my thoughts. But as it is, the few maps you posted do nothing to prove anything I said otherwise. All you posted was sea level pressure and ensemble mean QPF in which there is zero indication of what falls as rain or snow. And all the ensemble QPF says is "yes, we're working with a juicy system", and nothing more. You're going to have to do better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Re: Greenland, temps remain cold because pressures are high at the surface too. This means that the thicknesses between pressure levels is smaller. In this case, we have high heights with low pressure approaching at the surface, yielding greater thicknesses. As Taunton pointed out, this is not like past storms where snow is falling over I95 even with a track over the Cape. This is a much more compact system, with a very very small half wavelength. Therefore, it can afford to not be as deep and have higher heights and still be quite potent. And this is what we see: a regime with much greater heights than we saw with the other storms. Boxing Day, with a similar track, was associated with a massive bomb at 500mb. There could definitely be a stripe of sleet / freezing rain, but even considering the antecedent cold and snow pack ... we have high pressure bugging out and deep layer prolonged easterlies. That spells rain. With such a case, a large region of higher QPF will be wasted as rain. Enhanced precip from the coastal front will be straddling rain/snow, making it major snow totals more difficult to come by. We'll likely see a secondary area of enhancement like Boxing Day, with signs pointing to pretty good deformation well northwest of the low. And this will fall as snow. But it will be a narrow zone. So I'm pretty much looking at moderate accumulations with overrunning ahead of the storm for most, changing to rain east, with a narrow stripe of heavy snow west (not necessarily GC again, but not saying no). That's probably a good position to take.lol This one going to be another solid hit Sam, at least that's where I'd put my money. Meanwhile, now at -8/-13 here at the house. Deep snow, sub-zero temps, and a boatload more Big Winter incoming, Big Big Winter, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 He's irritated, for some reason he has a big investment in this one. Classic DT. Like I said I like the guy, and I think he has a lot of great ideas but he has a hard time separating out the wheat from the chaff at times. -- I kind of feel like we're going to see an extreme solution (for this winter) with this low...one that goes either west up into the region or a true BM type low. IMO, the NAM is heading NE, I actually think it ends up under us by a fair margin...but that's just me...IE towards the BM. -- GFS solution would appear to be heading towards the faster side through h42. My call will be an intense low riding 25-30 miles east of CC. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I agree and you can see it on the last few panels.... Yes, it's clearly trucking NE. My call will be an intense low riding 25-30 miles east of CC. We'll see. Out of curiousity, how far is ACK from the BM does anyone know precisely? Also what do you think of Okemo? I'm hearing it's kind of fu fu? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 My call will be an intense low riding 25-30 miles east of CC. We'll see. Your call is useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 And over here, we have some lovely chairs and ropes for sale, but only until the next Euro run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yes, it's clearly trucking NE. Out of curiousity, how far is ACK from the BM does anyone know precisely? Also what do you think of Okemo? I'm hearing it's kind of fu fu? I love Okemo midweek nonholiday, spacious, uncrowded and great for rec skiers like you and me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 My call will be an intense low riding 25-30 miles east of CC. We'll see. Your call or your wish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well, The gfs is amped on this run and east as well.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 He's irritated, for some reason he has a big investment in this one. Classic DT. Like I said I like the guy, and I think he has a lot of great ideas but he has a hard time separating out the wheat from the chaff at times. -- I kind of feel like we're going to see an extreme solution (for this winter) with this low...one that goes either west up into the region or a true BM type low. IMO, the NAM is heading NE, I actually think it ends up under us by a fair margin...but that's just me...IE towards the BM. -- GFS solution would appear to be heading towards the faster side through h42. It's not wheat and chaff. The guy simply doesn't play well. That's why he works out of a closet. No normal workspace would have him. Certainly a talented Met but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Over the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Right over the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 A nice good ol' fashioned 500 mile jump in the 500mb low position for a 72hr forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm perfectly prepared to change my thoughts. But as it is, the few maps you posted do nothing to prove anything I said otherwise. All you posted was sea level pressure and ensemble mean QPF in which there is zero indication of what falls as rain or snow. And all the ensemble QPF says is "yes, we're working with a juicy system", and nothing more. You're going to have to do better than that. lol COT is trying to will this into a no-brainer snow storm. like the Box afd said ....we need this to go by the benchmark ...i.e offshore for this to be a snow deal here. gotta like 0z gfs....it threads the needle but continues the trend of low qpf on the cold side. nam has 0c line over Southern ct.....s central ri and se mass by 12z wednesday ahead of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Right over the BM. Looks just east of the benchmark but not splitting hairs this far out....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Right over the BM. Snow for all except extreme outer Cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I see it ditched the notion it had at 18z with no precip to the cold side of the 0c 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Snow for all except extreme outer Cape? Mid Cape may have BL issues but certainly for areas on the "mainland"...snow verbatim this run. Probably 6-12 for us taking this run as is exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 huge changes pretty volatile setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I see it ditched the notion it had at 18z with no precip to the cold side of the 0c 850 I love this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Snow for all except extreme outer Cape? Most likely. Looks like near warning criteria for a line from Ray-Will-Kev and points eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 And the sale on ropes and chairs is over... return to winter folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I don't think GFS is done trending west fwiw. Would like it to slow or stop but think we may come another 50 miles in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ukie is west.. not sure exactly where but it's more amped than the GFS by 72 with more ridging ahead. I am pretty sure this will be rain along the coast. There's not much blocking and this is a powerful s/w. The ensemble means are pretty far west with a lot of them (something like half) turning to rain on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 the 00z GFS gets a from me. Nice run for everyone. Closed off at all levels as it passes by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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