Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yes there likely would be taint but I'm pretty sure it's not a widespread rainstorm. In fact, it that H85 low moves under us as well, we may do very well. And the movement from a loop indicates that also happens. We'll see if this solution has any validity. I haven't said a word about a rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 How can anyone even take the NAM seriously at this point? It did so terribly with its handling of the storm yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 How can anyone even take the NAM seriously at this point? It did so terribly with its handling of the storm yesterday. Who is taking it seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yes there likely would be taint but I'm pretty sure it's not a widespread rainstorm. In fact, it that H85 low moves under us as well, we may do very well. And the movement from a loop indicates that also happens. We'll see if this solution has any validity. it's the 84hr NAM so that should answer your question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 How can anyone even take the NAM seriously at this point? It did so terribly with its handling of the storm yesterday. No one is taking it seriously, As it is still out of its realm, Just discussing what it shows verbatim on this run...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 it's the 84hr NAM so that should answer your question. Every once in awhile it pulls one out of it's back end USB port. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 No one is taking it seriously, Just discussing what it shows verbatim on this run...... Bingo, we have a winner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Every once in awhile it pulls one out of it's back end USB port. Jerry, I'm looking at the soundings now for TAN now and there is definitely low level cold draining in but above that is heading in the opposite direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Every once in awhile it pulls one out of it's back end USB port. Sounds dirty........ betcha Cotton Mather won't like it. Anyway, arent we waiting for all the players to come onshore in the West before we start worrying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 wow barry burbanks blog on wbz says the storm will just graze us. correct me if I am wrong but don't most models give us a direct hit with thr gfs being the outlier? surprizes me for him to go in that direction. anxious to see what matt noyes thinks Hes a GFS Rip and read verbatim met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Bingo, we have a winner! I don't even trust anything outside hr 36 other then looking for trends on the models as has been proven on almost every storm this year to what the outcome will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Every once in awhile it pulls one out of it's back end USB port. Funny , I wonder if those supercomputers even have USB ports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Jerry, I'm looking at the soundings now for TAN now and there is definitely low level cold draining in but above that is heading in the opposite direction. I think we need to stem the midlevel tides by getting all centers (sfc and midlevels) off the coast. In a worse case, another icy seal to our growing snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 No one is taking it seriously, As it is still out of its realm, Just discussing what it shows verbatim on this run...... Oh..seemed like people were kind of worried that it might verify. Even in its realm it still sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Oh..seemed like people were kind of worried that it might verify. Even in its realm it still sucks. You could say that about every model this year, They all have sucked on one storm or another at some point this winter, And the only one that may be worse is the GFS as it has been last to the party most of the time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hes a GFS Rip and read verbatim met Barry Burbank: "The latest indications 18Z GFS points to directing the storm farther offshore thanks to upstream kicking and unphasing jetstreams. Consequently, our region may only be impacted by the northwestern flank of this deepening ocean storm. That is just my latest thinking but there remains a degree of uncertainty with this so I submit that we must wait until Monday’s guidance offers a hopefully more defining portrait of how this is all going to shake out." Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think some of our regulars have posted comments to Barry Burbank's blog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 But where? H5? Shouldn't make a difference. Even in our huge NAO's, sfc temps in Greenland with high hts remain relatively cold. So of course higher thickness values typically mean it's warmer. But it depends on whether or not you move from the boreal sub 500 to something in the 530s which is still cold enough vs a 550+ bloodbath. Re: Greenland, temps remain cold because pressures are high at the surface too. This means that the thicknesses between pressure levels is smaller. In this case, we have high heights with low pressure approaching at the surface, yielding greater thicknesses. As Taunton pointed out, this is not like past storms where snow is falling over I95 even with a track over the Cape. This is a much more compact system, with a very very small half wavelength. Therefore, it can afford to not be as deep and have higher heights and still be quite potent. And this is what we see: a regime with much greater heights than we saw with the other storms. Boxing Day, with a similar track, was associated with a massive bomb at 500mb. There could definitely be a stripe of sleet / freezing rain, but even considering the antecedent cold and snow pack ... we have high pressure bugging out and deep layer prolonged easterlies. That spells rain. With such a case, a large region of higher QPF will be wasted as rain. Enhanced precip from the coastal front will be straddling rain/snow, making it major snow totals more difficult to come by. We'll likely see a secondary area of enhancement like Boxing Day, with signs pointing to pretty good deformation well northwest of the low. And this will fall as snow. But it will be a narrow zone. So I'm pretty much looking at moderate accumulations with overrunning ahead of the storm for most, changing to rain east, with a narrow stripe of heavy snow west (not necessarily GC again, but not saying no). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think some of our regulars have posted comments to Barry Burbank's blog. I just don't get how he thinks this i going to go mostly out to sea... He makes absolutely no sens. GFS RIP AND READ ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Re: Greenland, temps remain cold because pressures are high at the surface too. This means that the thicknesses between pressure levels is smaller. In this case, we have high heights with low pressure approaching at the surface, yielding greater thicknesses. As Taunton pointed out, this is not like past storms where snow is falling over I95 even with a track over the Cape. This is a much more compact system, with a very very small half wavelength. Therefore, it can afford to not be as deep and have higher heights and still be quite potent. And this is what we see: a regime with much greater heights than we saw with the other storms. Boxing Day, with a similar track, was associated with a massive bomb at 500mb. There could definitely be a stripe of sleet / freezing rain, but even considering the antecedent cold and snow pack ... we have high pressure bugging out and deep layer prolonged easterlies. That spells rain. With such a case, a large region of higher QPF will be wasted as rain. Enhanced precip from the coastal front will be straddling rain/snow, making it major snow totals more difficult to come by. We'll likely see a secondary area of enhancement like Boxing Day, with signs pointing to pretty good deformation well northwest of the low. And this will fall as snow. But it will be a narrow zone. So I'm pretty much looking at moderate accumulations with overrunning ahead of the storm for most, changing to rain east, with a narrow stripe of heavy snow west (not necessarily GC again, but not saying no). When do you think you will put out a 1st call map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Jerry, I'm looking at the soundings now for TAN now and there is definitely low level cold draining in but above that is heading in the opposite direction. I don't like systems that blow their load too far south for us early. 84hr has a nice NE ageostrophic component and I assume some radiational cooling in NNE based on the sfc temps. So there is BL cold to play with at that time. If this thing occludes too quickly and we get into long-fetch easterlies that could change quickly for coastal locations. I think this run would want to track near the BM though so it may not totally matter anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 One way or another, I don't see this as being a widespread monster. Someone could get walloped with 12-18", but it will be locally, in a narrow band well NW of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Re: Greenland, temps remain cold because pressures are high at the surface too. This means that the thicknesses between pressure levels is smaller. In this case, we have high heights with low pressure approaching at the surface, yielding greater thicknesses. As Taunton pointed out, this is not like past storms where snow is falling over I95 even with a track over the Cape. This is a much more compact system, with a very very small half wavelength. Therefore, it can afford to not be as deep and have higher heights and still be quite potent. And this is what we see: a regime with much greater heights than we saw with the other storms. Boxing Day, with a similar track, was associated with a massive bomb at 500mb. There could definitely be a stripe of sleet / freezing rain, but even considering the antecedent cold and snow pack ... we have high pressure bugging out and deep layer prolonged easterlies. That spells rain. With such a case, a large region of higher QPF will be wasted as rain. Enhanced precip from the coastal front will be straddling rain/snow, making it major snow totals more difficult to come by. We'll likely see a secondary area of enhancement like Boxing Day, with signs pointing to pretty good deformation well northwest of the low. And this will fall as snow. But it will be a narrow zone. So I'm pretty much looking at moderate accumulations with overrunning ahead of the storm for most, changing to rain east, with a narrow stripe of heavy snow west (not necessarily GC again, but not saying no). But that is not necessarily the case. We've been discussing mid level warming and that may well happen. But unless surface winds are SE or E for a prolonged spell, it's not easy to warm the surface with a low to our east. So where the low level winds are (as usual) will determine whether or not it's plain rain. All I know is that the Euro, GFS, ensembles of both give a decent snow storm for many. Tonight's NAM says no to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hes a GFS Rip and read verbatim met Barry Burbank: "The latest indications 18Z GFS points to directing the storm farther offshore thanks to upstream kicking and unphasing jetstreams. Consequently, our region may only be impacted by the northwestern flank of this deepening ocean storm. That is just my latest thinking but there remains a degree of uncertainty with this so I submit that we must wait until Monday’s guidance offers a hopefully more defining portrait of how this is all going to shake out." Fixed I just don't get how he thinks this i going to go mostly out to sea... He makes absolutely no sens. GFS RIP AND READ ftw Did Barry Burbank steal you lunch money or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Did Barry Burbank steal you lunch money or something? Almost as bad in that its irked me over the last several years where he's turned into the walking talking GFS. He never used to be like that until the past few years. His forecasts always mimic the GFS to a T, consistently, time in and time out. Its extremely rare for him to stray from the verbatim OP GFS, and he'll drastically change his forecasts even from the 12z GFS verbatim to the 18z GFS verbatim in a news cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Incidentally RGEM only goes to 48 hours but it is different from the NAM at that point. H5 is further east on the RGEM suggesting a less westerly solution in the end. Who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 One way or another, I don't see this as being a widespread monster. Someone will get walloped with 12-18", but it will be locally, in a narrow band well NW of the low. You are going against a consensus of about 100 super computer runs, good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 OT: Looks like we are heading south of zero tonight we are at 0.0F here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 When do you think you will put out a 1st call map? Maybe this time tomorrow. Still pretty early. One of the downfalls of models catching and holding onto a big storm in the long range is some mets building up false confidence in a specific forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Guess DTs stress is relieved ABOUT THE 0Z NAM -- model discussion NOT forecast: yes the 0z NAM is overdone... and YES it is way inland... and yes past 60 hrs the NAM is crap... BUT the NAM is NOT by itself here. Its does have the 12z Canadian & Ukmet with it and the previous runs of the Euro. MOREOVER the overall pattern over N America DOES support an inland track - just NOT to the extreme of the 0z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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