dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Mid atlantic gets torched and flooded...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM's going ballistic tonight. Closed 540 ULL in AL at 78h. NAM has shown a propensity for ballistics that in the end are proven to be too extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Mid atlantic gets torched and flooded...... Ugly run for them. Hopefully won't verify because it has ugliness for us written on it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Mid atlantic gets torched and flooded...... Throw it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM does have a 1028 hp rushing SE and hopefully can save our area in time. Quite possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Posted for posterity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This is moving NE, heights are falling, Jerrys polar bear feeding in cold air, looks extra to emerge off VA to BM, we are going to get smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ugly run for them. Hopefully won't verify because it has ugliness for us written on it as well. That would be a lot of warmth streaming north from that set up, It does look like its tracking NE though so could go off the coast underneath us....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I just don't see this a pure southern stream low given the northern stream interraction. Maybe we just don't get Miller A's here but this one is similar to 12/26 which in the end was probably a hybrid. Was 1/12 pure Miller B, Miller A, or hybrid? 1/12 was a Miller B I'd say Boxing Day was a Miller A. Simplified: Miller B is a northern stream disturbance that redevelops along the coast. Miller A is a southern stream (or phased streams) disturbance with surface low pressure developing along a thermal gradient near the Gulf coast, and moving northeast along the east coast. A "hybrid" would be initially a Miller A type low that moves northward out of the Gulf, west of the Apps, and then redevelops on the coast (a la Miller B ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM does have a 1028 hp rushing SE and hopefully can save our area in time. Quite possible. Maybe in another life Jerry. This thing has winds screaming from the S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This is moving NE, heights are falling, Jerrys polar bear feeding in cold air, looks extra to emerge off VA to BM, we are going to get smoked This has big inland snows written all over it...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Guys... What would a compromise between the Nam and gfs be? Get out the meter sticks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 This has big inland snows written all over it...... GC up into SNH/ME inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Pretty sure if you extrap the NAM it would be rain for most of SNE.. though I'm not sure why you would do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Normally just a lurker on this board but finally figured out how to post from my iPad based on searching for the solution on other parts of this board. I'm really pumped about this week. I see big things and am looking forward to some killer skiing next weekend. Of course, I have no idea where all this snow is going to go. Probably the deepest snowpack since early 2000's (2002/3?) in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GC up into SNH/ME inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This has big inland snows written all over it...... My desire is to live in the Whites, and this system may prove why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Pretty sure if you extrap the NAM it would be rain for most of SNE.. though I'm not sure why you would do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Maybe in another life Jerry. This thing has winds screaming from the S. I'm not convinced. The path of the low may well be under us. Otherwise, you will be correct. Trust me, we won't end up with screaming southerly winds this week.....just not going to happen. And this solution doesn't advertise that imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 My desire is to live in the Whites, and this system may prove why. Any type of a hugger track and they would get crushed and we get front end dump then some dripping.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM has shown a propensity for ballistics that in the end are proven to be too extreme. Like that Phineas Gage guy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well hey, we decided this was like an online bar room. And I just poured myself a drink. And I just got the results back from the scan saying my cancer is still gone. So what the hell... Life is good. Many many congratulations to you!! That's excellent news!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Look at the sfc winds on the NAM at 84 hours.....there is a good damming signature. This is not a rain storm. It could be sleety or icy but the low is not ploughing west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Maybe in another life Jerry. This thing has winds screaming from the S. Really, can not say for sure but that jump east of the centers indicates to me they go well under us as it develops redevelops east up the coast, Bob where are the southerly winds at our location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 My desire is to live in the Whites, and this system may prove why. wow that would be pheonomenal hmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm not convinced. The path of the low may well be under us. Otherwise, you will be correct. Trust me, we won't end up with screaming southerly winds this week.....just not going to happen. And this solution doesn't advertise that imo. No argument that the path would be under us but the damage is done in the upper levels before that. They sure look like they are coming out of the S on the 850 map. Verbatim, 850's go above 0C for a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Really, can not say for sure but that jump east of the centers indicates to me they go well under us as it develops redevelops east up the coast, Bob where are the southerly winds at our location? Not arguing about our location. Look at the southerly winds wrapping around the 850. That will be pumping the warmth in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 wow barry burbanks blog on wbz says the storm will just graze us. correct me if I am wrong but don't most models give us a direct hit with thr gfs being the outlier? surprizes me for him to go in that direction. anxious to see what matt noyes thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 No argument that the path would be under us but the damage is done in the upper levels before that. They sure look like they are coming out of the S on the 850 map. Verbatim, 850's go above 0C for a lot of us. Yes there likely would be taint but I'm pretty sure it's not a widespread rainstorm. In fact, it that H85 low moves under us as well, we may do very well. And the movement from a loop indicates that also happens. We'll see if this solution has any validity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 No argument that the path would be under us but the damage is done in the upper levels before that. They sure look like they are coming out of the S on the 850 map. Verbatim, 850's go above 0C for a lot of us. Looking at that map, We would probably be safe up here but you guys down that way especially in the southern part of Mass and CT would have some issues it looks like unless it wraps up and crashes the 0c SE..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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