Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well hey, we decided this was like an online bar room. And I just poured myself a drink. And I just got the results back from the scan saying my cancer is still gone. So what the hell... Life is good. Good news my friend, good news. I have a chronic form of Leukemia and am taking Gleevec daily for it. I was diagnosed in early April this past year. I am technically in remission now and will be as long as this drug continues to work and the prognosis is good for me given the 91% survival rate at 10 years for those taking it. Back to your regularly scheduled model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 BOS climo page lists 7.3 snow yesterday on 0.23 qpf. Gotta think that will be manually adjusted. We DID NOT have 30:1. I was closer to 14:1 Jer, so do the math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I was closer to 14:1 Jer, so do the math. Exactly. Seems to me like they'll adjust to about 0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 How much on the season now @ BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Back to the hybrid discussion. Here's the NAM 36 hour sfc prog. See the low near the Lakes...effectively acting in response to the vort moving down and catching the southern storm. If streams phase, then we have something huge but also much greater rain potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 How much on the season now @ BOS? 49.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hybrid from that vort coming down in northern WI. That essentially drives the path hence the hybrid designation. That supplies the cold air feed as well. There's always some interaction with the northern stream up here. You're not going to avoid it at 40N in the middle of winter That's not what distinguishes a Miller B. Also, that disturbance is hardly providing a cold air feed. It's actually pumping up heights over the northeast and initially contributing to warm advection aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Good news my friend, good news. I have a chronic form of Leukemia and am taking Gleevec daily for it. I was diagnosed in early April this past year. I am technically in remission now and will be as long as this drug continues to work and the prognosis is good for me given the 91% survival rate at 10 years for those taking it. Back to your regularly scheduled model watching. Isn't it amazing what our medical professionals have been able to do? Mine was a very rare but very treatable colorectal type. I didn't understand when my doctor told me I should be happy because there are much worse cancers to get. Now I understand. Best of luck to you. (...again with the hijacking. Sorry.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well hey, we decided this was like an online bar room. And I just poured myself a drink. And I just got the results back from the scan saying my cancer is still gone. So what the hell... Life is good. This is great news. I'm really happy to hear this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 49.6 Wow, your 73" prediction may be on point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I wonder if we would want it to accelerate in order to run into the colder air sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 There's always some interaction with the northern stream up here. You're not going to avoid it at 40N in the middle of winter That's not what distinguishes a Miller B. Also, that disturbance is hardly providing a cold air feed. It's actually pumping up heights over the northeast and initially contributing to warm advection aloft. I think this is an incorrect assessment. Look at my post a few up to bolster the argument. This is not a pure Miller A and shouldn't be considered one. I'm sorry....I refuse to agree based on what I'm seeing. Now...the incorrect part is this: I think the s/w may initially pump up hts to enable the low to come up the coast but make no mistake about it, those hts will not bring warmth. Maybe you haven't observed enough storms to know that the kind of cold in NNE preceding and during this storm will more than adequately do the deed. Conversely, last year's disaster of the 1888 style NYC blizzard had the opposite problem so even with a bombing low and crashing hts, we were toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 I wonder if we would want it to accelerate in order to run into the colder air sooner A faster system is preferred. One that does not dig for oil in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wow, your 73" prediction may be on point. I think there's a greater than 50% chance I bust too low....lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Back to the hybrid discussion. Here's the NAM 36 hour sfc prog. See the low near the Lakes...effectively acting in response to the vort moving down and catching the southern storm. If streams phase, then we have something huge but also much greater rain potential. Jerry, you're not even making the same arguments now. That's not the same low that you were posting about from the GFS. This is at hr36, and that low is with an intial northern stream disturbance in the developing split flow that ends up dampening out southwest of the vortex near Newfoundland. Unless that energy slows and dives further south, and phases with the southern stream wave, it simply helps out a little, strengthening confluence over the region. Your previous post cited the GFS at hr90 with a completely different northern stream disturbance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That's what's missing this year - the Cranberry Lambic; good stuff. But I do like the Chocolate Bock. I hate how they put the regular Boston Lagers in the seasonal collections. Still have some of the Winter Classics variety in the fridge Old Fezziwig is my fave. Unfortunately they replaced the Cranberry Lambic with Chocolate Stout What do you think for Tues thru Thurs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Jerry, you're not even making the same arguments now. That's not the same low that you were posting about from the GFS. This is at hr36, and that low is with an intial northern stream disturbance in the developing split flow that ends up dampening out southwest of the vortex near Newfoundland. Unless that energy slows and dives further south, and phases with the southern stream wave, it simply helps out a little, strengthening confluence over the region. Your previous post cited the GFS at hr90 with a completely different northern stream disturbance I just don't see this a pure southern stream low given the northern stream interraction. Maybe we just don't get Miller A's here but this one is similar to 12/26 which in the end was probably a hybrid. Was 1/12 pure Miller B, Miller A, or hybrid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Has anyone noticed the NAM? So far we are NOT seeing major flip flops at 500mb...first time this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Has anyone noticed the NAM? So far we are NOT seeing major flip flops at 500mb...first time this winter. Not major, but I can't say I like the look of the s/w digging further SW into TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Has anyone noticed the NAM? So far we are NOT seeing major flip flops at 500mb...first time this winter. Tuesday's a snowy day in many areas it moves in from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think this is an incorrect assessment. Look at my post a few up to bolster the argument. This is not a pure Miller A and shouldn't be considered one. I'm sorry....I refuse to agree based on what I'm seeing. Now...the incorrect part is this: I think the s/w may initially pump up hts to enable the low to come up the coast but make no mistake about it, those hts will not bring warmth. Maybe you haven't observed enough storms to know that the kind of cold in NNE preceding and during this storm will more than adequately do the deed. Conversely, last year's disaster of the 1888 style NYC blizzard had the opposite problem so even with a bombing low and crashing hts, we were toast. Higher heights are related to greater thickness and are directly proportional to warmer temperatures (hypsometric equation: dz=RT/g*dln(p) Certainly, we have excellent antecendent cold in place, along with a deep snow pack; will definitely be preventative to an onslaught of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 A nice little 1-3" for NH on Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Does the Cape get scraped tomorrow? That would be a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Higher heights are related to greater thickness and are directly proportional to warmer temperatures (hypsometric equation: dz=RT/g*dln(p) Certainly, we have excellent antecendent cold in place, along with a deep snow pack; will definitely be preventative to an onslaught of warmth. But where? H5? Shouldn't make a difference. Even in our huge NAO's, sfc temps in Greenland with high hts remain relatively cold. So of course higher thickness values typically mean it's warmer. But it depends on whether or not you move from the boreal sub 500 to something in the 530s which is still cold enough vs a 550+ bloodbath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 A nice little 1-3" for NH on Tues. ... and slides on over to coastal Maine. Like dessert before the main course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This is great news. I'm really happy to hear this. Thank you, sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 A little too much and too early digging for my thinking. Hopefully it's wrong because we'll need the northern vort to move along and allow for some colder feed before this moves inland up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM's going ballistic tonight. Closed 540 ULL in AL at 78h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM's going ballistic tonight. Closed 540 ULL in AL at 78h. In SC hour 84....GA/SC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM's going ballistic tonight. Closed 540 ULL in AL at 78h. The only good news (I suppose) is the closed low moves almost due east from 78 to 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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