BDR Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 American Is this on the Wxrisk wall? what post is it under? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Haven't seen much disco on it..but Tuesday looks like a snowy day with light snow most of the day ahead of the snow bomb on Wednesday..almost a glorified warmfront.. 1-3 maybe 2-4 on Tuesday for most With one exception. In almost every KU that occurred as that, a major warm pattern followed soon after the storm. Not in the cards this time. End to end winter in progress. My own winter forecast featured at least a 10 day very warm period in mid January. That has busted as have any hints of warmth to date. Amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 We need the lurkers to post a lot more!!! Not just at storm times either but that would be everyday this year Woot Woot LOL! Ginx, I'm here 'reading' your party as usual. Tough to break long time habits. I think I may have only 100 posts TOTAL going all the way back to Wright Weather BB times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 http://www.americanw...post__p__335698 That is a beautiful pic. Epic! Nice work... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 With one exception. In almost every KU that occurred as that, a major warm pattern followed soon after the storm. Not in the cards this time. End to end winter in progress. My own winter forecast featured at least a 10 day very warm period in mid January. That has busted as have any hints of warmth to date. Amazing! I am still looking for HMs post back in Nov where he outlined this week as his biggie, that guy is amazing for long distance calls. I hope this pans out like the ENS show. Can you picture little Ray Ray with snorkling gear on taking depth measurements in his yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 LOL! Ginx, I'm here 'reading' your party as usual. Tough to break long time habits. I think I may have only 100 posts TOTAL going all the way back to Wright Weather BB times... Dude!!! just got a call KU and the wintertime band enroute! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I am still looking for HMs post back in Nov where he outlined this week as his biggie, that guy is amazing for long distance calls. I hope this pans out like the ENS show. Can you picture little Ray Ray with snorkling gear on taking depth measurements in his yard. But in fairness....HM didn't think the winter would be particularly good. A few chances but mainly pedestrian and mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 All models moved east at 18Z. DGEX is a blizzard but when isn't it.... LOL, yes every single one for the most part. Shut up with war and peace lecture lol Here is what I think the evolution is as of today GGEM Ens fit mythinking for QPF and temps LP placement GGEM ensembles did pretty well the other day, they were a few miles SE, but overall did well inside of 72ish. Not war and peace, just trying to make the point before one of the pros ends up taking a hit. We don't know who's lurking and reading. We may be putting our friends/acquantinces in bad situations and should keep that in the backs of our minds as we put them in a position to have to moderate what we say. I think of this board as a bar room with wx enthusiasts and mets. Messenger, I am so glad you changed your name back to the days of WWBB. I learned a lot from you then, and I still do. Thanks for all the time you put into your analysis. (And I am sorry everyone here gives you so much crap.) I am always hoping PYM gets in on the action so all your work won't be for nothing. Not a problem and you are welcome. It's actually been pretty snowy. I'd feel differently if it weren't for the pre-Christmas storm which was my opportunity this season. We may get another shot who knows. Then you understand why I can't recommend the site to my students. I hope they find it on their own like you did. Once in a while someone goes too far but is usually advised that the comment was out of bounds and a Mea Culpa is issued. I think we put people in a bad position, especially people many of you count as friends when we force them to moderate our comments. They shouldn't have to do it, we should be able to moderate ourselves pre-posting and I for one will try to do a better job. Maybe we can all do a better job of taking a closer look at what we say/how it can possibly be taken before we hit send so Will, Bob, Brian and others don't have to spend time cleaning it up. --- Every storm this year has seemingly had two extreme tracks at this stage with a few/one model way west, a bunch way east, and in the end they all have tracked near NJ then over the canal to ACK. This one seems to be flipping between the two extremes and I'm starting to think it's not going to be the ACK/PYM track this time but one of the "extremes"...west or out by the BM. As Boston said a track near the canal probably won't cut it for a lot of people temp wise this time as this storm will be pretty wound up as it's coming up the coast and heights aren't going to be crashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 End to end winter in progress. I love when you say sh!t like that. You have a way with words! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I don't have the best vibe about the Wednesday storm ... though I also had a vibe that the last storm would be widespread 6-12+ A lot needs to go right for New England to cash in from a pure southern streamer. Tuesday might be an "overperformer" as Kev is suggesting. Could be a 2-4" deal for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I don't have the best vibe about the Wednesday storm ... though I also had a vibe that the last storm would be widespread 6-12+ A lot needs to go right for New England to cash in from a pure southern streamer. Tuesday might be an "overperformer" as Kev is suggesting. Could be a 2-4" deal for many. But this is not that. This is a glorified Miller B or perhaps a hybrid as the northern s/w will reach down and catch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 BREAK TIME FOR DT ....stress levels are shooting through the roof with me.... 1ST GUESS MAPS WILL BE OUT THIS EVENING around 11PM RE 12Z JAN 26 EURO-- DID IT "SHIFT EAST?".... not really much. AMERICAN WX forums ... where critical thinking skills are NOT needed *** ALERT ALERT *** 12Z GFS shifts from OHIO to GA IN 1 RUN !!!**** once again proving how awful this model is on east coast winter storms solutions past 84 hrs... The GFS just BLINKED .... some of l those idiots mets at American ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I love when you say sh!t like that. You have a way with words! Meant to thank you for your kind words earlier. I didn't think I'd have the opportunity in my lifetime to experience one of these in SNE but here it is. MAV MOS from 18Z is bringing down temps further. Has -17 in BED, -3 BOS. Ginx's FB page is warning to the elderly. I just posted that I'm elderly and bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 But in fairness....HM didn't think the winter would be particularly good. A few chances but mainly pedestrian and mild. I know that he blinked big time. I was talking about how year after year he seems to nails the big ones within a couple of days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 BREAK TIME FOR DT The guy is going to need a cardiologist before long. I feel bad for him -- taking everything like it freaking life or death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 But this is not that. This is a glorified Miller B or perhaps a hybrid as the northern s/w will reach down and catch it. Yeah I'd agree. If the track is good (BM +/- 20 or so miles) boston will get crushed, ORH, Ray, Kev, Bob.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 BREAK TIME FOR DT ....stress levels are shooting through the roof with me.... 1ST GUESS MAPS WILL BE OUT THIS EVENING around 11PM RE 12Z JAN 26 EURO-- DID IT "SHIFT EAST?".... not really much. AMERICAN WX forums ... where critical thinking skills are NOT needed *** ALERT ALERT *** 12Z GFS shifts from OHIO to GA IN 1 RUN !!!**** once again proving how awful this model is on east coast winter storms solutions past 84 hrs... The GFS just BLINKED .... some of l those idiots mets at American ....... He is not very stable......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 BREAK TIME FOR DT ....stress levels are shooting through the roof with me.... 1ST GUESS MAPS WILL BE OUT THIS EVENING around 11PM RE 12Z JAN 26 EURO-- DID IT "SHIFT EAST?".... not really much. AMERICAN WX forums ... where critical thinking skills are NOT needed *** ALERT ALERT *** 12Z GFS shifts from OHIO to GA IN 1 RUN !!!**** once again proving how awful this model is on east coast winter storms solutions past 84 hrs... The GFS just BLINKED .... some of l those idiots mets at American ....... Perfect example of a good guy going bad with things he's said over the years. Shame really, he's a smart guy and talented but he falls for prevocation all the time. You don't even have to get into a debate over the weather, can have the weakest position going, just push his buttons and viola. Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 And the elephant is dead. The elephant expression came last year when I actually questioned the prog of heavy snow and queried why no one is talking about the elephant in the room....the warm temps to the north...above freezing in northern ME. I was shouted down until verification time of a driving rainstorm for all but those areas close to NYC. Quite the opposite prog for this event. Everyone will have deep cold leading in and northern NE will have still plenty of it to feed this storm. Things like that are important to look at and make a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Scott Messenger, you hit at thr root of problems with the USA, bunch of politically correct whinebutts afarid of the fooking dark, fook em feed um beans. Freedom of speech. Now on to the weather GGEM ENS lalalalalalalallock that sh it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 But this is not that. This is a glorified Miller B or perhaps a hybrid as the northern s/w will reach down and catch it. No, this is 100% kosher Miller A, with even more distinction from the northern stream than usual. Almost analogous to a hurricane coming up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMizer Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hi, I have seen your posts and your obs are usually about the same as mine, so I don't post if I see you already have. I am just up the hill from the Lowes on Diamond Hill Rd, if you know where that is. There is another guy from Cumberland too, Snowman-something-or-other. But there are lots of Snowman-type nicks on this board, so I can't keep them all straight. I was in Lowes today i picked up a back up sump pump just in case we have an inland runner and get a ton of rain...Remember the big rain storm we had last March like 14" of rain ?? My Sump pump ran for 2 weeks straight !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Perfect example of a good guy going bad with things he's said over the years. Shame really, he's a smart guy and talented but he falls for prevocation all the time. You don't even have to get into a debate over the weather, can have the weakest position going, just push his buttons and viola. Sad. Nobody pushed sh it those are his headlines, but whateva fook him too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 All thats going to do is get more people to check out the forums! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 No, this is 100% kosher Miller A, with even more distinction from the northern stream than usual. Almost analogous to a hurricane coming up the coast Yes and as all good canes does a parabolic sweep from NC to east of CC with all the heavy QPF NW of the track, do not fear young man do not fear LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 No, this is 100% kosher Miller A, with even more distinction from the northern stream than usual. Almost analogous to a hurricane coming up the coast I categorically disagree. At best a hybrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yes and as all good canes does a parabolic sweep from NC to east of CC with all the heavy QPF NW of the track, do not fear young man do not fear LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Everyone will have deep cold leading in and northern NE will have still plenty of it to feed this storm. Things like that are important to look at and make a huge difference. That is exactly what Matt Noyes said in his vid disco last night. And about the high, blocking just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 And the elephant is dead. The elephant expression came last year when I actually questioned the prog of heavy snow and queried why no one is talking about the elephant in the room....the warm temps to the north...above freezing in northern ME. I was shouted down until verification time of a driving rainstorm for all but those areas close to NYC. Quite the opposite prog for this event. Everyone will have deep cold leading in and northern NE will have still plenty of it to feed this storm. Things like that are important to look at and make a huge difference. Soothsayer, wise man, Old Man Winter. The Jerranator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yes and as all good canes does a parabolic sweep from NC to east of CC with all the heavy QPF NW of the track, do not fear young man do not fear LOL The good canes do, but what about them misbehavin' canes? We'll see. Right now, I'm worried that this is either a quick front end dump followed by rain (less likely), or a narrow band of 8-16" with cirrus to the NW and rain to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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