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January 26-27 Storm Threat


Baroclinic Zone

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Here's a fun read from ALY. How often is the JMA cited in an AFD?

THE QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE

NORTHEAST WILL BOTH BE IMPACTED. OUR CURRENT FORECAST WILL STAY THE

COURSE WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS STORM DESPITE THE DEVIATION

MORE OUT TO SEA /OR WIDE RIGHT/ WITH THE 12Z ECMWF. WE WILL FOLLOW

CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MEAN...00Z ECMWF...CAN GGEM...AND EVEN THE

LATEST JAPANESE MODEL /JMA/ OUTPUT. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES

TO BE FURTHEST EAST ON THE ENVELOPE OF STORM TRACK POSSIBILITIES

WITH THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES MEAN FURTHER WEST...AND A WHOLE HOST OF

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WEST OF THE MSLP STORM CENTER BY 18Z WED. THE

TREND THIS WINTER OVER THE PAST 4 WEEKS HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO TRACK

CLOSER TO THE NJ...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST...INSIDE 48-60 HOURS

WITH THE QPF DISPLACED MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN 3-5 DAYS

OUT. THIS STORM COULD YIELD THE GAMBIT OF METEOROLOGICAL

POSSIBILITIES FROM LIGHT SNOW...TO BLOCKBUSTER SNOWFALL /MORE THAN A

FOOT/...TO HEAVY SNOWS WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND ICE TO THE SOUTH. WE

WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE STORM IN THE HWO...AS OUR CONFIDENCE IS

NOT GREAT ENOUGH FOR A WATCH THIS FAR OUT WITH MODEL TRACK

DISCONTINUITIES AND DISCREPANCIES.

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100% agree. Moderation has been far too loose lately and it results im the degrading of the forum. Adult doesn't have to mean sophomoric and crude and sometimes full of references to violent sexual acts and genitalia. I think enough people from varying backgrounds here have said as much including several pros. I suspect others keep quiet out of fear of a backlash/rocking the boat. We moderate snownh because we don't like what he says about the weather but the sexual references are ok? How is that consistent at all?

It's been said other regions threads are seeing a departure or quality posters. If I were a red tagger or posting from a work computer ask yourself if what is sometimes written here/what you're participating in would make it through a code of conduct screening if a coworker had a hair across their butt...or a competitor trying to get your clients etc. "can you believe pro xyz participates in this?"

It cuts both ways. It would be more female and kid friendly in addition to preventing what could be ugly hr type issues for some of the pros.

In most other areas of life it'd be the middle schoolers that'd be making all these references not the adults.

Not a commentary on individual posters or moderators etc. I think a lot of people feel it needs to be cleaned up but for various reasons have either given up on it ever happening or are afraid to say anything for fear of rocking the cart.

Just my thoughts.

Shut up with war and peace lecture lol

Here is what I think the evolution is as of today GGEM Ens fit mythinking for QPF and temps LP placement

4177f2fe-5caf-d741.jpg4177f2fe-5cc1-5170.jpg

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Ginx, thanks for the kind words. I wasn't suggesting this board should be made kid-friendly -- I was just lamenting that I can't recommend it for some of my brighter and wx-interested students with whom I have wx conversations.

But I don't dare even mention it, lest I have parents climbing my pant leg about whatever might be posted here.

And hey, I really appreciate your analysis too. Thanks for helping me learn stuff. Good luck this week.

:snowman:

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100% agree...I prefer to leave the kids in the classroom (no offense to the numerous HS kids on here, they are fine)

Some of the name calling yesterday was tough to read, which is too bad, since those involved have lots to offer.

Anyway, back on subject, at which point do the models start to show "regular" phasing?

I am thinking NNE might be getting hammered on this one

:wub: lol.

Heavy Heavy Snow on they way.

Cant wait for the 00z runs tonight :thumbsup:

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One thing to keep in mind is that the models may become more accurate slightly earlier than usual because the energy is coming on shore for the 18z-06z runs even though we are still 96+ hours away. The details of the phasing of course are never modeled perfectly until it's actually happening but we could get the general idea right by the 00z or 12z runs.

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100% agree. Moderation has been far too loose lately and it results im the degrading of the forum. Adult doesn't have to mean sophomoric and crude and sometimes full of references to violent sexual acts and genitalia. I think enough people from varying backgrounds here have said as much including several pros. I suspect others keep quiet out of fear of a backlash/rocking the boat. We moderate snownh because we don't like what he says about the weather but the sexual references are ok? How is that consistent at all?

I really didn't mean to spark a controversy and I really wasn't asking for anything to change. I was just pointing out my experience, when Ginx called us lurkers out to post more.

I think of this board as a bar room with wx enthusiasts and mets. That's fine with me, and I am thankful for it.

Messenger, I am so glad you changed your name back to the days of WWBB. I learned a lot from you then, and I still do. Thanks for all the time you put into your analysis. (And I am sorry everyone here gives you so much crap.) I am always hoping PYM gets in on the action so all your work won't be for nothing.

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I think I speak for the majority when i say the forum is fine just as it is. It is a place for weather and friendly banter, and occasional innuendo. Everyone here is an adult and most appreciate the comradery and banter that goes back and forth. it is not meant to offend or hurt..and as long as that is the case things can and will continue to run just as they have,

There is much knowledge to be learned here from all the great minds of mets and weenies...and the fun and playful interaction we have with other shows just what a tight fit family we are. And it's the reason why folks from other areas of the country are always in our threads..and often comment that they wish their threads were like ours,

Now let's get back to the storm talk

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I hear you, but I have a few who even log on to Matt Noyes' video technical discussion, and they want me to decode it for them. I have great discussions with some of those middle schoolers, and I really want to encourage their love and appreciation of weather.

I wish I could send them here, but it's okay that I can't. As you said, they will find their way here anyway, and I am sure they are seeing and reading much worse online!

I am only a freshmen in high school and I post on here...I found this website in 8th grade...Sure I don't post technical analysis, but I think I do a fine job measuring and posting snowfall observations which is what I primarily use this site for.

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