weathafella Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 All models moved east at 18Z. DGEX is a blizzard but when isn't it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 All this talk...meanwhile, I am pretty certain most of us are getting a ton of snow this week. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 All models moved east at 18Z. DGEX is a blizzard but when isn't it.... I want to live midway between DGEXville and Ray's house at H5 Or at permenant 240 Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Here's a fun read from ALY. How often is the JMA cited in an AFD? THE QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE NORTHEAST WILL BOTH BE IMPACTED. OUR CURRENT FORECAST WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS STORM DESPITE THE DEVIATION MORE OUT TO SEA /OR WIDE RIGHT/ WITH THE 12Z ECMWF. WE WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MEAN...00Z ECMWF...CAN GGEM...AND EVEN THE LATEST JAPANESE MODEL /JMA/ OUTPUT. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHEST EAST ON THE ENVELOPE OF STORM TRACK POSSIBILITIES WITH THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES MEAN FURTHER WEST...AND A WHOLE HOST OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WEST OF THE MSLP STORM CENTER BY 18Z WED. THE TREND THIS WINTER OVER THE PAST 4 WEEKS HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE NJ...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST...INSIDE 48-60 HOURS WITH THE QPF DISPLACED MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN 3-5 DAYS OUT. THIS STORM COULD YIELD THE GAMBIT OF METEOROLOGICAL POSSIBILITIES FROM LIGHT SNOW...TO BLOCKBUSTER SNOWFALL /MORE THAN A FOOT/...TO HEAVY SNOWS WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND ICE TO THE SOUTH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE STORM IN THE HWO...AS OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH FOR A WATCH THIS FAR OUT WITH MODEL TRACK DISCONTINUITIES AND DISCREPANCIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 fwiw, NOGAPS scraper about 50 miles SE of 40/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 100% agree. Moderation has been far too loose lately and it results im the degrading of the forum. Adult doesn't have to mean sophomoric and crude and sometimes full of references to violent sexual acts and genitalia. I think enough people from varying backgrounds here have said as much including several pros. I suspect others keep quiet out of fear of a backlash/rocking the boat. We moderate snownh because we don't like what he says about the weather but the sexual references are ok? How is that consistent at all? It's been said other regions threads are seeing a departure or quality posters. If I were a red tagger or posting from a work computer ask yourself if what is sometimes written here/what you're participating in would make it through a code of conduct screening if a coworker had a hair across their butt...or a competitor trying to get your clients etc. "can you believe pro xyz participates in this?" It cuts both ways. It would be more female and kid friendly in addition to preventing what could be ugly hr type issues for some of the pros. In most other areas of life it'd be the middle schoolers that'd be making all these references not the adults. Not a commentary on individual posters or moderators etc. I think a lot of people feel it needs to be cleaned up but for various reasons have either given up on it ever happening or are afraid to say anything for fear of rocking the cart. Just my thoughts. Shut up with war and peace lecture lol Here is what I think the evolution is as of today GGEM Ens fit mythinking for QPF and temps LP placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 All models moved east at 18Z. DGEX is a blizzard but when isn't it.... This morning when it left all of New England high and dry. Quite a move by this crappy model to demolish the sum of New England save Vermont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It would be more female and kid friendly . . . I understand most of what you were getting at, except this is something I DON'T want. Regardless of all of the bad humor, and ragging on people. If I know there are kids in the mix, I would most likely keep my distance from the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yup. Survived Dr. Jellyfinger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Ginx, thanks for the kind words. I wasn't suggesting this board should be made kid-friendly -- I was just lamenting that I can't recommend it for some of my brighter and wx-interested students with whom I have wx conversations. But I don't dare even mention it, lest I have parents climbing my pant leg about whatever might be posted here. And hey, I really appreciate your analysis too. Thanks for helping me learn stuff. Good luck this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ginx lol what cold miser said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 100% agree...I prefer to leave the kids in the classroom (no offense to the numerous HS kids on here, they are fine) Some of the name calling yesterday was tough to read, which is too bad, since those involved have lots to offer. Anyway, back on subject, at which point do the models start to show "regular" phasing? I am thinking NNE might be getting hammered on this one lol. Heavy Heavy Snow on they way. Cant wait for the 00z runs tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 One thing to keep in mind is that the models may become more accurate slightly earlier than usual because the energy is coming on shore for the 18z-06z runs even though we are still 96+ hours away. The details of the phasing of course are never modeled perfectly until it's actually happening but we could get the general idea right by the 00z or 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS is a joke.....it will be back on board by 12z Monday. better be I already changed my flight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18z Ensembles pass close to the BM and are a little colder. Just west of the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I see nothing on the models that I'm disappointed with. I'll climb the God's Country Express and say big winter storm incoming, big big winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 I see nothing on the models that I'm disappointed with. I'll climb the God's Country Express and say big winter storm incoming, big big winter storm. Have no fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 100% agree. Moderation has been far too loose lately and it results im the degrading of the forum. Adult doesn't have to mean sophomoric and crude and sometimes full of references to violent sexual acts and genitalia. I think enough people from varying backgrounds here have said as much including several pros. I suspect others keep quiet out of fear of a backlash/rocking the boat. We moderate snownh because we don't like what he says about the weather but the sexual references are ok? How is that consistent at all? I really didn't mean to spark a controversy and I really wasn't asking for anything to change. I was just pointing out my experience, when Ginx called us lurkers out to post more. I think of this board as a bar room with wx enthusiasts and mets. That's fine with me, and I am thankful for it. Messenger, I am so glad you changed your name back to the days of WWBB. I learned a lot from you then, and I still do. Thanks for all the time you put into your analysis. (And I am sorry everyone here gives you so much crap.) I am always hoping PYM gets in on the action so all your work won't be for nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Have no fear. Yea, though I walk in the valley of the snow shadow, I shall fear no ptype issue for Pete art with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 wonder if this will take a page outta the ole' s. streamers will come north over time. if that is even in the book. amen ullr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yea, though I walk in the valley of the snow shadow, I shall fear no ptype issue for Pete art with me. well, unless you're Job...then you're screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Survived Dr. Jellyfinger? "So....how do you know Alan?" Pete had the privelidge, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think I speak for the majority when i say the forum is fine just as it is. It is a place for weather and friendly banter, and occasional innuendo. Everyone here is an adult and most appreciate the comradery and banter that goes back and forth. it is not meant to offend or hurt..and as long as that is the case things can and will continue to run just as they have, There is much knowledge to be learned here from all the great minds of mets and weenies...and the fun and playful interaction we have with other shows just what a tight fit family we are. And it's the reason why folks from other areas of the country are always in our threads..and often comment that they wish their threads were like ours, Now let's get back to the storm talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This i like! Lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I hear you, but I have a few who even log on to Matt Noyes' video technical discussion, and they want me to decode it for them. I have great discussions with some of those middle schoolers, and I really want to encourage their love and appreciation of weather. I wish I could send them here, but it's okay that I can't. As you said, they will find their way here anyway, and I am sure they are seeing and reading much worse online! I am only a freshmen in high school and I post on here...I found this website in 8th grade...Sure I don't post technical analysis, but I think I do a fine job measuring and posting snowfall observations which is what I primarily use this site for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Survived Dr. Jellyfinger? Resting heart rate of 50, blood pressure low end of perfect. No probing required. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Haven't seen much disco on it..but Tuesday looks like a snowy day with light snow most of the day ahead of the snow bomb on Wednesday..almost a glorified warmfront.. 1-3 maybe 2-4 on Tuesday for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Haven't seen much disco on it..but Tuesday looks like a snowy day with light snow most of the day ahead of the snow bomb on Wednesday..almost a glorified warmfront.. 1-3 maybe 2-4 on Tuesday for most Agreement with associated violence. An appetizer to the main course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Resting heart rate of 50, blood pressure low end of perfect. No probing required. Extraordinary...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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