40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 6:29 AM, Logan11 said: Maybe I should be liking these 0Z runs. The last Noreaster at this stage I think most models were out to sea and trended west the last few days. A trend west this time could finally get a good event out here. I'm afraid the central and western NY people are finished though....after a few days of thinking this was their storm. I like the fact that the ensembles of every model have been clustered near the BM seemingly since PD I, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 6:30 AM, weathafella said: It's a much more dynamic system. Also, it comes from closer to the coast further south to it's NE position so the entire qpf field is further west. Thanks jerry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 6:22 AM, weathafella said: You may be a meteorologist but I slept with one in a Holiday Inn Express last night. Heather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Because the euro develops a massive conveyor belt of moisture. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 6:29 AM, Logan11 said: Maybe I should be liking these 0Z runs. The last Noreaster at this stage I think most models were out to sea and trended west the last few days. A trend west this time could finally get a good event out here. I'm afraid the central and western NY people are finished though....after a few days of thinking this was their storm. Rick...you get about an inch qpf on this Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 6:26 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I mentioned it before, but don't forget that this arctic episode is going to knock the marine layer on it's azz well out into the atl, so that is going buy the immediate coastline a bit more time than they normally would expect. This is a good point actually. The modification rate might not compensate this type of air mass as would be otherwise typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 6:31 AM, CoastalWx said: Because the euro develops a massive conveyor belt of moisture. Makes sense. Obviously, but why doesn't the GFS is the question.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 6:15 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: A hair se of ACK Wow.. that's weird for this winter lol Track over ack Lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 6:33 AM, Typhoon Tip said: This is a good point actually. The modification rate might not compensate this type of air mass as would be otherwise typical. Doesn't hurt that we have inlets freezing, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Maybe the NAM extrapolated would be similar to the Euro...... On 1/23/2011 at 6:31 AM, CoastalWx said: Because the euro develops a massive conveyor belt of moisture. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 6:33 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Obviously, but why doesn't the GFS is the question.... The GFS has trouble doing this as we've seen time and again. The final run or 2 before the event it ends up better but it appears to be one of the issues. Use it for general guidance but the Euro and the other mesos can be used for finer details is what I've learned this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 6:31 AM, CoastalWx said: Because the euro develops a massive conveyor belt of moisture. Makes sense. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 6:33 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Obviously, but why doesn't the GFS is the question.... Because the euro has less confluence to the north. The 500 height lines are allowed to make that classic "s" shape. This allows for moisture to wrap way back to the west. The Euro is more like 50-60 miles nw, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 6:35 AM, weathafella said: The GFS has trouble doing this as we've seen time and again. The final run or 2 before the event it ends up better but it appears to be one of the issues. Use it for general guidance but the Euro and the other mesos can be used for finer details is what I've learned this year. Yea, I didn't saying I'm buying it, but it gives me a little pause.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 And in the longer range...like the rest of the guidance the past few days...COLD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 6:36 AM, CoastalWx said: Because the euro has less confluence to the north. The 500 height lines are allowed to make that classic "s" shape. This allows for moisture to wrap way back to the west. The Euro is more like 50-60 miles nw, Catch 22.....be careful what we wish for.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ahh ...cool Jerry. I'd take it and run. At first when I heard the ultimate position I didn't realize the trajectory of the track up the coast. On 1/23/2011 at 6:32 AM, weathafella said: Rick...you get about an inch qpf on this Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 6:36 AM, CoastalWx said: Because the euro has less confluence to the north. The 500 height lines are allowed to make that classic "s" shape. This allows for moisture to wrap way back to the west. The Euro is more like 50-60 miles nw, I thought by the time it crossed near the BM, the difference was closer to 20 but my eyes could be wrong.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 6:37 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Catch 22.....be careful what we wish for.... I've been worried since the storm was modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 6:33 AM, Typhoon Tip said: This is a good point actually. The modification rate might not compensate this type of air mass as would be otherwise typical. If you remember the NJersey bomb, HPC kept mentioning the destabilization of the Gstream air due to Arctic air flowing over it for days making it a breeding ground for copious moisture to be advected, guess what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 6:34 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Doesn't hurt that we have inlets freezing, either. OT ... But if anyone gets a chance, arctic sea smoke is an awesome spectacle. Tomorrow and particularly Monday morning will probably be fantastic!! I recall once living in Rockport as many as 20 steam dogs at once dancing across the sea sfc during a 0F morning, cut through by corpuscular rays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 6:38 AM, weathafella said: I thought by the time it crossed near the BM, the difference was closer to 20 but my eyes could be wrong.... The 500 pattern alone argues for a nw path on the euro. It might also depend on the resolution, but it looked like a fairly large nw jog from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Alright I'm out. Heavy Heavy beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 6:40 AM, CoastalWx said: The 500 pattern alone argues for a nw path on the euro. It might also depend on the resolution, but it looked like a fairly large nw jog from the GFS. Well if we can keep this position and lock it in we're fine. Any further jog W will not be good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 6:41 AM, weathafella said: Well if we can keep this position and lock it in we're fine. Any further jog W will not be good for us. Yeah that's what I don't want to see. I just wish it were 36 hours out. My guess is a track near ACK. If we can keep the low at that longitude, surface temps should be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Need a tombo map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This run is absolutely PERFECT for me.....literal jackpot is probably Will, but who cares...I get 1.5" of QPF wilth probably better than 10:1 ratios.....this is about 18" of snow, here. CF would probably be from KBEV-BOS-Brockton, with a secondary maxima, there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 6:44 AM, Ginx said: Need a tombo map You're 1.5+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 February is coming in like a roaring winter lion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 6:41 AM, weathafella said: Well if we can keep this position and lock it in we're fine. Any further jog W will not be good for us. I agree Jerry We need to hold this track as it is optimum for most........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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