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Pattern Changing: Early December threats?

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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CCPSUSuperstorm2010

CCPSUSuperstorm2010

Posted
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Well +PNA are favorable for both. I think Miller As are more favorable with split flow out west. This type of flow is more likely when we have a strong srn stream..like in an El-Nino year. But remember, the "classic" patterns don't happen all that frequently, so don't worry about seeing a "classic" pattern on the models. All you really need is one favorable feature, like a -nao or some sort of ridge out west, whether it be +pna or -epo. The reason why it's nice to have ridging out west, is because this general pattern shoves the cold farther east. It's not common to have a +pna and -nao all at once for a prolonged period of time, but it's nice to have one of these features in a favorable state, when the other is not. This time around we have the -nao, but we are sort of at the mercy of the Pacific. I do like seeing ridging poking into the N-Pole from Kamchatka. It holds the cold on this side of the Pole, but it also sometimes leads to GOA lows.

Thanks Coastal, what type of pattern over Alaska would we need for a large EC snowstorm?

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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Looking at the historical indices for the NAO/AO/PNA, what values would one look for in order to discern a neutral/negative or positive index? would anything between -0.5 to +.0.5 would be neutral and anything above or below 0.5 be positive or negative?

James, you should build a "I have questions about stuff" thread.

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cpickett79

cpickett79

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In essence what this means is no real pattern change. Warm days a couple cold then warm again. We should have known this would happen given the strong nina. We all fell for this wintry pattern and got sucked in

as we thought.

not sold on no pattern change yet.....models are locked thru thursday now.....that's it.

as i walk thru the shadow of snow i fear no torch repeat ten times while taking shots of ___ . does wonders

the EURO will begin repenting Soon

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
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as we thought.

not sold on no pattern change yet.....models are locked thru thursday now.....that's it.

as i walk thru the shadow of snow i fear no torch repeat ten times while taking shots of Jaegar. does wonders

the EURO will begin repenting Soon

filled in the blank.......

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cpickett79

cpickett79

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We?

he's not referring to friday....he's referring to the step down pattern change into colder weather. which now could just be a MERE AVERAGE Flipping of the calendar to december......where temps cool by default. and there will be some chances sure . ....but no sustained negative departures i.e pattern change Fail. we shall see . this option has been on the table since the initial euro flipped few days ago....even when the ministers of truth from orwells 1984 said "as we thought"

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

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he's not referring to friday....he's referring to the step down pattern change into colder weather. which now could just be a MERE AVERAGE Flipping of the calendar to december......where temps cool by default. and there will be some chances sure . ....but no sustained negative departures i.e pattern change Fail. we shall see . this option has been on the table since the initial euro flipped few days ago....even when the ministers of truth from orwells 1984 said "as we thought"

lol, I know what he was saying, and I still think its crazy to lock in or deny a pattern in a strong nina like this, the Euro could show a very cold scenario at 0z and the wave of emotions will change. I was just kidding with him, only because I was of the thinking of no pattern change in the forseeable future and another cutter or two, which he disagreed with violently. I had all BOS BDL and BDR all on the +side for the month of November, which may end up being to warm, but it will be close for sure.

Anything can and will happen in this setup, i think even the best mets are a little baffled right now.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
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In essence what this means is no real pattern change. Warm days a couple cold then warm again. We should have known this would happen given the strong nina. We all fell for this wintry pattern and got sucked in

You're a false prophet, Kevin. You're like Jim Jones down in Guyana leading us astray and giving us Kook-Aid.

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cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
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comparing the 0z gfs ensembles and the 12z ensembles regarding cold front swinging thru friday'ish

seems the 12z move the trough thru a bit sooner on friday on a panel by panel basis by about 12 hours or so.

i.e regarding the 0z period saturday..(hr 108) 12z gfs ensembles have 9 panels (one is over me) outta 12 with the <5400 height line SE of me.....while the 0z's 0z period saturday (hr 120) had only 4 with 5400 line se of me....(3 were over me) and 5 were well west.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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Iim bailing ion the sustained cold pattern. Too many warning shots being fired the last few days. This reeks of la nina. Its not the models having troublemmits our coild pattern. You guys had better start giving up the idea of a long stromy cold pattern. Read the signs. This is youR rev speaking. I'm not jumping.. Just facing reality

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Iim bailing ion the sustained cold pattern. Too many warning shots being fired the last few days. This reeks of la nina. Its not the models having troublemmits our coild pattern. You guys had better start giving up the idea of a long stromy cold pattern. Read the signs. This is youR rev speaking. I'm not jumping.. Just facing reality

We often have long 2-3 week sustained cold/stormy patterns in La Nina...usually December is the month to do it. Look at Dec 2007.

In really crappy La Ninas we don't have the good sustained patterns....so if this upcoming period fails and then we don't get anything else between now and New Years, I'll be pretty worried about another late 1990s La Nina.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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Iim bailing ion the sustained cold pattern. Too many warning shots being fired the last few days. This reeks of la nina. Its not the models having troublemmits our coild pattern. You guys had better start giving up the idea of a long stromy cold pattern. Read the signs. This is youR rev speaking. I'm not jumping.. Just facing reality

you're speaking in tongues Reverend

Iim bailing ion?

troublemmits our coild pattern?

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ChrisM

ChrisM

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Posted

Iim bailing ion the sustained cold pattern. Too many warning shots being fired the last few days. This reeks of la nina. Its not the models having troublemmits our coild pattern. You guys had better start giving up the idea of a long stromy cold pattern. Read the signs. This is youR rev speaking. I'm not jumping.. Just facing reality

didnt you trash me a couple days ago for saying this exact thing?

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