Pattern Changing: Early December threats?

[moneypitmike]

No that was actually for sne. I had 10.5" in that. It was the one that produced like 48hrs of light snow. I don't think you guys had much, but it retrograded in from Nova Scotia and flipped a good chunk of Maine to rain.

Oh, yeah--I remember that one now. We needed special instructions from BOX as to how to record snowfall: one storm vs. two, etc. I'm going to keep a permanent record of these this year. Last year, I jsut kept track on my signature here. Not too good for recall once I erased it for the new season.

[CoastalWx]

There seems little doubt that we snow

I agree it's starting to look like some of us have a chance of even a little snow, but the key is to try and develop the new low, south of 41N. It's possible the low could back in from the northeast, but that can be a gamble as far as how much precip makes it back into sne. Obviously a low near the benchmark would be best...well not for Pete and Mike.

[moneypitmike]

There seems little doubt that we snow

At this time frame, there should ALWAYS be a fair amount doubt. Just as there should ALWAYS be a fair amount of doubt that we should be dry if that was what was being depicted.

Not being a Debbie Downer--just a realist.

[Alpha5]

The 0z euro has a storm developing in Oklahoma and moving east across the south at 240

Not retrograding storm

[moneypitmike]

I agree it's starting to look like some of us have a chance of even a little snow, but the key is to try and develop the new low, south of 41N. It's possible the low could back in from the northeast, but that can be a gamble as far as how much precip makes it back into sne. Obviously a low near the benchmark would be best...well not for Pete and Mike.

We can still do well when they're there, though there's nothing like a good stalling Canal Cutter to really pile it on.

[CoastalWx]

The 0z euro has a storm developing in Oklahoma and moving east across the south at 240

Not retrograding storm

Looks like a "warmer" storm.

[MaineJayhawk]

The 0z euro has a storm developing in Oklahoma and moving east across the south at 240

Not retrograding storm

Yes, I saw this. Not sold on the retrograde idea.

[CoastalWx]

Yes, I saw this. Not sold on the retrograde idea.

Yeah it could simply be just a re-developer off the coast. That might even be more likely, question is where.

[ski MRG]

There seems little doubt that we snow

NZucker> The pac is so dominate it looks like another cutter with heavy rain and 50's all the way to the Artic Circle. It's only going to get worse from there.<NZucker

[Tropopause_Fold]

Looks like a "warmer" storm.

i like how the 5th/6th system just gets ripped to shreads over the lakes and shunted out south of us. pretty nice example of how important the atlantic is for new england. verbatim ec soundings have some flurries/light snows falling all the way to the coast of new england with that.

[CoastalWx]

i like how the 5th/6th system just gets ripped to shreads over the lakes and shunted out south of us. pretty nice example of how important the atlantic is for new england. verbatim ec soundings have some flurries/light snows falling all the way to the coast of new england with that.

Yeah, I'd rather see that, compared to models slowly shifting west with the storm track.

[Alpha5]

Looks like a "warmer" storm.

Yeah but the Euro has been al over the place the past 3 runs or so...if I remember correctly it had a GLC at 0z yesterday. Just no consistency from it at this time and from what Ive heard the Euro ensembles are no better

[CoastalWx]

Yeah but the Euro has been al over the place the past 3 runs or so...if I remember correctly it had a GLC at 0z yesterday. Just no consistency from it at this time and from what Ive heard the Euro ensembles are no better

The ensembles hint at it, but then the signal washes out as is approaches the cluster-f going on over the East Coast. Modeling mayhem.

[Alpha5]

The ensembles hint at it, but then the signal washes out as is approaches the cluster-f going on over the East Coast. Modeling mayhem.

Ok thanks for clearing it up

Not expecting the models to fully grasp this pattern for a while, until then Im going to sit back and enjoy the GFS 3 day blizzards and the Euro changing every run

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like a "warmer" storm.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah it could simply be just a re-developer off the coast. That might even be more likely, question is where.

I'm going with early blooming miller b ..Something like 6-10 for most

[mahk_webstah]

There seems little doubt that we snow

some dude fropm dobbs ferry disagrees..."The 18z GFS solution looks like a bunch of BS to me. The low is trying to cut north into MN and pump up heights, but then all of a sudden it minors out and cedes to a monster retrograding system. All this with a GoA Low. Still thinking the 12/5-6 storm will be a cutter with marginal temperatures for SNE, probably a mix-->rain scenario."

[Tropopause_Fold]

some dude fropm dobbs ferry disagrees..."The 18z GFS solution looks like a bunch of BS to me. The low is trying to cut north into MN and pump up heights, but then all of a sudden it minors out and cedes to a monster retrograding system. All this with a GoA Low. Still thinking the 12/5-6 storm will be a cutter with marginal temperatures for SNE, probably a mix-->rain scenario."

Tubes is suffering from not being in middlebury VT anymore.

[cpickett79]

Tubes is suffering from not being in middlebury VT anymore.

lol

and he is wishing his own personal hell on those that dare want snow.

it is a twisted way to get your kicks ( and i'm kidding)

I think zuck may have been a bit suprised to see how well the LLC air hung on yesterday and how many areas saw icing in northern (SNE)...i.e ma/nh border. this pattern isn't thaat bad. at least as long as the marine stale air doesn't park itself over head. don't think it will. but that will have EVERYONE cept pete.....doing swan dives off the tobin.

[Ginx snewx]

I agree it's starting to look like some of us have a chance of even a little snow, but the key is to try and develop the new low, south of 41N. It's possible the low could back in from the northeast, but that can be a gamble as far as how much precip makes it back into sne. Obviously a low near the benchmark would be best...well not for Pete and Mike.

What no 24 font disclaimer? LOL

Lots of distance for any talk but there is a hole in the atmosphere near SNE during the 5 th-7th period no doubt. Least favorite to me would be retrocane, best would be closed sub 534 ULL.

[Organizing Low]

No that was actually for sne. I had 10.5" in that. It was the one that produced like 48hrs of light snow. I don't think you guys had much, but it retrograded in from Nova Scotia and flipped a good chunk of Maine to rain.

i got 11 inches of snow in that over 2 days, but it also signalled the end of winter, as it indicated a pattern where eastern canada was flooded with maritime air eventually that was NEVER able to be scooped out the rest of the season because the strong negative AO heights.

[CoastalWx]

i got 11 inches of snow in that over 2 days, but it also signalled the end of winter, as it indicated a pattern where eastern canada was flooded with maritime air eventually that was NEVER able to be scooped out the rest of the season because the strong negative AO heights.

Yeah just a rotting disaster for weeks. Luckily we probably won't have to deal with a record AO/NAO like that for a long time.

[Organizing Low]

Yeah just a rotting disaster for weeks. Luckily we probably won't have to deal with a record AO/NAO like that for a long time.

yeah a more classic retrograding storm like 78 would be more ideal

[Typhoon Tip]

This may come across as negative but seriously not - this is utterly as objective as I can make it (sparing you my proclivity to be sardonic and dark-witted)

There's a fair chance folks that ALL the models are not handling the NAO out in time. Correct that: There is a 100% chance that the ALL the models are mishandling the NAO status out in time - an error that grows spectacularly from D5 (or so) onward do to inherent uncertainty with modeling at any given time, but particularly now given the following:

First, the NAO has a intraweekly time scale modality at times that behaves with just slightly less than the stochastic nature of the daily synoptic pattern. Granted, once a solid negative or positive departure gets underway there is some "so-so" dependency that it will persist, but unless you have other correlated factors contributing, that depending falls to pieces pretty fast. With the latter lacking, I am growing increasingly (and rationally) suspect of the entire scenario.

1) The -PNA is actually better correlated with the +NAO as the cold season gets stronger. This has to do with the lower R Wave numbers, but that's a different brunch. Anyway that off the bat is a bit less supportive of those blocky solutions of the last 2 days, certainly as to the extent of those bizarrely absurd solutions, and considering the -PNA on-going.

2) There is no tropopausal relay of any thermal anomalies currently propagating out of the polar field stratospheric vortex pointed toward middle altitudes - the total distribution in fact is nearly near 0, but if anything is slightly cooler than normal. At least for the AO that should mean somewhat of an alleviated negative phase state; since the NAO and AO share domain space, there is obviously going to have to be some consideration extended there, too. One encouraging aspect about being close to neutral in the deep layer thermals is that the AO is probably going to be more guided by planetary wave decay - so you go even money odds that it will be negative or elsewhere.

3) Lastly, from an ensemble perspective it is unclear at best what the signal is coming from the GFS regarding the major teleconnectors. We have the two agencies currently pumping out disparate behavior with the NAO. The CPC show it rising almost to neutral - with typical mop ended incoherence by D13 but what does one expect... Meanwhile, the CDC indicates only a modest relaxation from -2 to ~ -1SD. The PNA at NCEP is forecast to rise to +.25 SD, but then slips less than 0, while everyone else says it stays negative for the foreseeable future. I got go with the weight on that one because currently there is just about 0 tropical forcing coming out of the Pacific domain from India clear to California. The MJO has stifled in incoherency and looking at the available OLR products there doesn't seem to be any hope at all for anything to bump the roulette wheel around into a new ending position. With no coherent means to alter a nod to Newtons 1st law would seem apropo.

(As a side not - and check this - I've read that westerly QBO phases are negatively correlated to the AO, and that easterly phases ironically actually have almost no correlation either way. Why that is is probably a fascinating question, but the -QBO has +AO sister as I've understood it. Now, I am certainly not without my history of fantastic displays of dyslexia so if I am flipping these signs around my apologies, besides not a big fan of this QBO thing anyway for it having too many degrees of separation)

All these storm depictions are/were based on numerical instability in the models - perhaps not even real if the blocking ridge verifies weaker and/or displaced further E and S (as it should given these above reasons).

Back to the NAO ... I have noticed that last two cycles of the deterministic ECM and GFS are inching the positive height node across the map ever more S and E - not much more and what do you have? . The 00z ECM actually shows a completely neutralized NAO field above 50 or 55 N nearing D9 - a condition that becomes a bit less directive on the East Coast storm track.

Based on all: It is possible the models have been erroneously over-developing the extent of the positive anomaly, and in doing so were formulating a compensating negative departure that was spatially forced into a position S of NS (by planetary wave numbering). If that is true the whole scenario was based on macro-scale feedback, and would most likely be false. That would explain that appearance of a 5 day polar vortex that for the first time [probably] in recorded history maintains a near blizzard for the entire time. We have collectively said it regarding these "weird" GFS solutions, and sometimes when things appear weird, suspicious...etc, you sense that for a reason - IT IS. Not to back peddle, but that doesn't have mean something special can't happen - as I have said many times in the past, anomalies nested in large scale anomalies happen all the time. You know ... the New England cut-off low events not a-typical to April are just that; if you step back and look at the whole of the domain while one of those is whirling around the waters E of NE, usually there is a huge ridge in position, a nascent +NAO, but a stranded vortex nearby - that's anomaly within an anomaly incarnate. If I am on to something regarding the larger scale direction we are heading over the next 3 weeks, that does not withstand local scale anomalies.

There are other factors to be hopeful for if you are a winter weather enthusiast emanating from the larger global perspective of things. For one, we are still situated in an on-going solar negative. That is measurably shown to mean increased visible light and decreased UV in the total solar budget. That means there is less ability for stratospheric ozone to be broken down by UV, which tends to lead to SWEs. That typically is more for after xmass year to year, but we still have that to assist the later winter. Perhaps more prevalent is the cryosphere. It is pretty impressive and we are not seeing any issues with expanding the areal coverage of the land snow and sea ice heading through the autumn and continuing as we open the door to the Meteorological winter. So impressive is this latter factor that I think it would be foolish to close the door on colder solutions entirely...particularly from 40N and Nward. For obvious reason, a pervasive Canadian shield snow pack persisting means that cold is near by, and comparatively less predictable permutations in the flow can easily grab moments of this air and tug it down. This can set stage of overrunning scenarios in the means, but also set up some interesting thermal gradients 'just in case' a wayward S/W spits through the flow in timely fashion (Dec 2005 is really what that was...).

[Ginx snewx]

Tip

Agree to some extent on how modeling is in chaos. You hit on what is probably key to setting up the distinct thermal boundary I fully expect to develop with us on the great side and NYC SW the other, Cryosphere. look back at the evolution of Dec 70 when you get time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Chair tipped over.

[CoastalWx]

We have seen models in the last couple of weeks, back off from the west based nature of the block. That position of the block will ultimately be the difference of a 978 low east of Chatham, or a 978 low north of Halifax NS. Also governing what will happen is the EPAC/West Coast. Every time the PNA oscillates, it sends a s/w down the Pike and develops a trough over the Midwest that propagates east. There has even been hints at split flow thanks to the GOA low backing up just enough to pop some ridging in western Canada. Bottom line is that pretty much everything is on the table right now. I almost hate talking about it, but we are all itching to have our first snow so we just hang around and discuss. Hopefully people realize the bust potential with this.

[Ginx snewx]

Tip

Agree to some extent on how modeling is in chaos. You hit on what is probably key to setting up the distinct thermal boundary I fully expect to develop with us on the great side and NYC SW the other, Cryosphere. look back at the evolution of Dec 70 when you get time.

[Damage In Tolland]

This may come across as negative but seriously not - this is utterly as objective as I can make it (sparing you my proclivity to be sardonic and dark-witted)

There's a fair chance folks that ALL the models are not handling the NAO out in time. Correct that: There is a 100% chance that the ALL the models are mishandling the NAO status out in time - an error that grows spectacularly from D5 (or so) onward do to inherent uncertainty with modeling at any given time, but particularly now given the following:

First, the NAO has a intraweekly time scale modality at times that behaves with just slightly less than the stochastic nature of the daily synoptic pattern. Granted, once a solid negative or positive departure gets underway there is some "so-so" dependency that it will persist, but unless you have other correlated factors contributing, that depending falls to pieces pretty fast. With the latter lacking, I am growing increasingly (and rationally) suspect of the entire scenario.

1) The -PNA is actually better correlated with the +NAO as the cold season gets stronger. This has to do with the lower R Wave numbers, but that's a different brunch. Anyway that off the bat is a bit less supportive of those blocky solutions of the last 2 days, certainly as to the extent of those bizarrely absurd solutions, and considering the -PNA on-going.

2) There is no tropopausal relay of any thermal anomalies currently propagating out of the polar field stratospheric vortex pointed toward middle altitudes - the total distribution in fact is nearly near 0, but if anything is slightly cooler than normal. At least for the AO that should mean somewhat of an alleviated negative phase state; since the NAO and AO share domain space, there is obviously going to have to be some consideration extended there, too. One encouraging aspect about being close to neutral in the deep layer thermals is that the AO is probably going to be more guided by planetary wave decay - so you go even money odds that it will be negative or elsewhere.

3) Lastly, from an ensemble perspective it is unclear at best what the signal is coming from the GFS regarding the major teleconnectors. We have the two agencies currently pumping out disparate behavior with the NAO. The CPC show it rising almost to neutral - with typical mop ended incoherence by D13 but what does one expect... Meanwhile, the CDC indicates only a modest relaxation from -2 to ~ -1SD. The PNA at NCEP is forecast to rise to +.25 SD, but then slips less than 0, while everyone else says it stays negative for the foreseeable future. I got go with the weight on that one because currently there is just about 0 tropical forcing coming out of the Pacific domain from India clear to California. The MJO has stifled in incoherency and looking at the available OLR products there doesn't seem to be any hope at all for anything to bump the roulette wheel around into a new ending position. With no coherent means to alter a nod to Newtons 1st law would seem apropo.

(As a side not - and check this - I've read that westerly QBO phases are negatively correlated to the AO, and that easterly phases ironically actually have almost no correlation either way. Why that is is probably a fascinating question, but the -QBO has +AO sister as I've understood it. Now, I am certainly not without my history of fantastic displays of dyslexia so if I am flipping these signs around my apologies, besides not a big fan of this QBO thing anyway for it having too many degrees of separation)

All these storm depictions are/were based on numerical instability in the models - perhaps not even real if the blocking ridge verifies weaker and/or displaced further E and S (as it should given these above reasons).

Back to the NAO ... I have noticed that last two cycles of the deterministic ECM and GFS are inching the positive height node across the map ever more S and E - not much more and what do you have? . The 00z ECM actually shows a completely neutralized NAO field above 50 or 55 N nearing D9 - a condition that becomes a bit less directive on the East Coast storm track.

Based on all: It is possible the models have been erroneously over-developing the extent of the positive anomaly, and in doing so were formulating a compensating negative departure that was spatially forced into a position S of NS (by planetary wave numbering). If that is true the whole scenario was based on macro-scale feedback, and would most likely be false. That would explain that appearance of a 5 day polar vortex that for the first time [probably] in recorded history maintains a near blizzard for the entire time. We have collectively said it regarding these "weird" GFS solutions, and sometimes when things appear weird, suspicious...etc, you sense that for a reason - IT IS. Not to back peddle, but that doesn't have mean something special can't happen - as I have said many times in the past, anomalies nested in large scale anomalies happen all the time. You know ... the New England cut-off low events not a-typical to April are just that; if you step back and look at the whole of the domain while one of those is whirling around the waters E of NE, usually there is a huge ridge in position, a nascent +NAO, but a stranded vortex nearby - that's anomaly within an anomaly incarnate. If I am on to something regarding the larger scale direction we are heading over the next 3 weeks, that does not withstand local scale anomalies.

There are other factors to be hopeful for if you are a winter weather enthusiast emanating from the larger global perspective of things. For one, we are still situated in an on-going solar negative. That is measurably shown to mean increased visible light and decreased UV in the total solar budget. That means there is less ability for stratospheric ozone to be broken down by UV, which tends to lead to SWEs. That typically is more for after xmass year to year, but we still have that to assist the later winter. Perhaps more prevalent is the cryosphere. It is pretty impressive and we are not seeing any issues with expanding the areal coverage of the land snow and sea ice heading through the autumn and continuing as we open the door to the Meteorological winter. So impressive is this latter factor that I think it would be foolish to close the door on colder solutions entirely...particularly from 40N and Nward. For obvious reason, a pervasive Canadian shield snow pack persisting means that cold is near by, and comparatively less predictable permutations in the flow can easily grab moments of this air and tug it down. This can set stage of overrunning scenarios in the means, but also set up some interesting thermal gradients 'just in case' a wayward S/W spits through the flow in timely fashion (Dec 2005 is really what that was...).

[ORH_wxman]

We have seen models in the last couple of weeks, back off from the west based nature of the block. That position of the block will ultimately be the difference of a 978 low east of Chatham, or a 978 low north of Halifax NS. Also governing what will happen is the EPAC/West Coast. Every time the PNA oscillates, it sends a s/w down the Pike and develops a trough over the Midwest that propagates east. There has even been hints at split flow thanks to the GOA low backing up just enough to pop some ridging in western Canada. Bottom line is that pretty much everything is on the table right now. I almost hate talking about it, but we are all itching to have our first snow so we just hang around and discuss. Hopefully people realize the bust potential with this.

The NAO block is actually south and southwest of a classic look for a -NAO....its creating quite a road block very close by.

The setup is extremely chaotic and quite blockier than you typically see in a strong Nina. Though we've pointed out, in the past, we've seen some blocks develop in a mod/strong Nina...just not in recent times through the +PDO phase of a decadal cycle.

And I'll say it again....we don't need a positive PNA to get a snow event in here.

Sure, a +PNA is great for getting I-95 KU events, but we aren't exactly being choosy here, nor (from a greedy standpoint) do we really care if it snows or not south of here. My favorite storm of all time had a monster -PNA....the December 1992 monster.