Pattern Changing: Early December threats?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Has anyone ever seen anything like this on a model prog? Detroit gets warning criteria snow from a low that's east of St John's in the Canadian maritimes:

Why is it all stretched out like that?

[OKpowdah]

lol I love how fantasy snowstorms on the 18z GFS at the same range that they were two weeks ago can ramp up excitement on here.

epic inverted trough lol

[CoastalWx]

lol I love how fantasy snowstorms on the 18z GFS at the same range that they were two weeks ago can ramp up excitement on here.

epic inverted trough lol

It's been interesting how models have been signaling something going on at this time, but we have to make sure to take a step back and realize we are 9-10 days or so away.

[MaineJayhawk]

It's been interesting how models have been signaling something going on at this time, but we have to make sure to take a step back and realize we are 9-10 days or so away.

Yeah, it's nice they've been consistent with a storm ... just have gone about it in like 5 different ways. lol

[nzucker]

Thanks for the memories

Thanks for the memories

26" here at 350' in Dobbs Ferry, NY.

[Hazey]

Careful folks, careful. Love the enthusiasm on this board. That's what keeps me lurking here day after day. I'd hate to see everyone slipping nooses over their heads when the models giveth and taketh away. Caution is needed. Would love though to see you guys get nailed to really amp this place up

I'd like to see this happen too if only for the excitement factor but I have to question the validity of the model when it shows a storm coming from the Azores to New England...lol

[Go Kart Mozart]

It's the block near Newfoundland, shown by euro and gfs, that interests me. In essence, it would displace the 50/50 low to 40/70!

[nzucker]

It's been interesting how models have been signaling something going on at this time, but we have to make sure to take a step back and realize we are 9-10 days or so away.

The 18z GFS solution looks like a bunch of BS to me. The low is trying to cut north into MN and pump up heights, but then all of a sudden it minors out and cedes to a monster retrograding system. All this with a GoA Low. Still thinking the 12/5-6 storm will be a cutter with marginal temperatures for SNE, probably a mix-->rain scenario.

[Logan11]

350' is a pretty good elevation there for the Lower HV. My old place in Saugerties is only 250' But thankfully we rent that out now and I live in a much better spot.

Thanks for the memories

26" here at 350' in Dobbs Ferry, NY.

[Logan11]

I hate to break it to people, but a block that strong may also result in suppression city..... Gee ..when did that last happen... But hey that scenario is probably more likely than the retro low on the 18z GFS giving snow to us.

It's the block near Newfoundland, shown by euro and gfs, that interests me. In essence, it would displace the 50/50 low to 40/70!

[nzucker]

350' is a pretty good elevation there for the Lower HV. My old place in Saugerties is only 250' But thankfully we rent that out now and I live in a much better spot.

Yeah I live in sort of a weird spot and that's why I tend to record higher totals in the marginal events, like the 2/26 Snowicane that dropped 26" here. I'm way back from the Hudson River near a nature preserve on top of a ridge...the elevations in the woods behind my house easily exceed 400'. There's basically an initial set of cliffs that go up from the River into downtown Dobbs Ferry, then a second set of hills atop of which lies my house. Behind the house are the highest elevations in the area which are probably like 425' or so. It doesn't seem like much but being in a wooded area at 350' makes a big difference compared to those living at nearly sea level right along the Hudson River with an urban heat island.

[Logan11]

I took the Saw Mill River Pkwy up on Wednesday ..saw the Dobbs Ferry exits.. So you live west of the Pkwy I guess?

I wanted to avoid the crazy situation on the interstates and got off in Ardsley and took 9A into 9 and right Upstate. ..till I got to Hudson, NY where I crossed the river and headed nw another 50 miles through the hills.

Yeah I live in sort of a weird spot and that's why I tend to record higher totals in the marginal events, like the 2/26 Snowicane that dropped 26" here. I'm way back from the Hudson River near a nature preserve on top of a ridge...the elevations in the woods behind my house easily exceed 400'. There's basically an initial set of cliffs that go up from the River into downtown Dobbs Ferry, then a second set of hills atop of which lies my house. Behind the house are the highest elevations in the area which are probably like 425' or so. It doesn't seem like much but being in a wooded area at 350' makes a big difference compared to those living at nearly sea level right along the Hudson River with an urban heat island.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I hate to break it to people, but a block that strong may also result in suppression city..... Gee ..when did that last happen... But hey that scenario is probably more likely than the retro low on the 18z GFS giving snow to us.

Now, now, we ushered that elephant out of the room.

[HoarfrostHubb]

The 18z GFS solution looks like a bunch of BS to me. The low is trying to cut north into MN and pump up heights, but then all of a sudden it minors out and cedes to a monster retrograding system. All this with a GoA Low. Still thinking the 12/5-6 storm will be a cutter with marginal temperatures for SNE, probably a mix-->rain scenario.

Maybe something in between? A couple of sloppy inches

[nzucker]

I took the Saw Mill River Pkwy up on Wednesday ..saw the Dobbs Ferry exits.. So you live west of the Pkwy I guess?

I wanted to avoid the crazy situation on the interstates and got off in Ardsley and took 9A into 9 and right Upstate. ..till I got to Hudson, NY where I crossed the river and headed nw another 50 miles through the hills.

Yeah, you passed very near my house. I'm about 1/3 mile west of the Saw Mill Parkway; you can look up from the Cyrus Field Road exit (only accessible going south) and you'll see a significant rise in elevation to the west. My house is on top of this ridge at the end of a windy, hilly street that leads to a huge nature preserve. Google Maps shows that it's at 341' elevation with the woods getting up to 420' or so. I've noticed a pretty significant difference in snow events over the years.

BTW, great knowledge of alternative routes to avoid the Westchester/NYC traffic. What I would recommend even more is to take the Saw Mill to the Taconic Parkway....just stay on for one exit until you see the sign for 9A/100. If you take that exit, you can get on 9A north until it hits 9 and then run route 9 as far as you like. This avoids all the Ardsley and Elmsford traffic jams and the Saw Mill is generally not a congested road; neither is the Taconic in my experience. You just want to desperately avoid crossing at the Tappan Zee and hitting all the malls and crap.

[nzucker]

Maybe something in between? A couple of sloppy inches

Yeah I think your area might see a little bit of snow from the event, but I'm not too enthusiastic. I'm not saying this to puff up my ego or verify any forecast, either. The 18z GFS clearly shows that the low is trying to cut into the Great Lakes; it's not until after truncation, when the model's resolution drops, that we get the miracle retrograding solution with heavy snow for New England. I still think the GoA low and -PNA are going to cause problems in the early season.

[Logan11]

Ahh Cool ...I actually noticed further up 9A that there were signs for the Saw Mill again and thought maybe I had exited a bit too soon.

Yeah I take the Taconic often all the way up to either route 82 (leads you nw to RVW Bridge near Hudson) or all the way to its terminus on I-90. It gets very cicuitous in those highlands of Putnam etc., but the traffic isn't usually bad at all.

Yes TZB is a mess rush hours ..... I never touch it, and also $5 or $6 toll now east bound..nasty. Mid/Upper Hudson bridges are still a buck!

Yeah, you passed very near my house. I'm about 1/3 mile west of the Saw Mill Parkway; you can look up from the Cyrus Field Road exit (only accessible going south) and you'll see a significant rise in elevation to the west. My house is on top of this ridge at the end of a windy, hilly street that leads to a huge nature preserve. Google Maps shows that it's at 341' elevation with the woods getting up to 420' or so. I've noticed a pretty significant difference in snow events over the years.

BTW, great knowledge of alternative routes to avoid the Westchester/NYC traffic. What I would recommend even more is to take the Saw Mill to the Taconic Parkway....just stay on for one exit until you see the sign for 9A/100. If you take that exit, you can get on 9A north until it hits 9 and then run route 9 as far as you like. This avoids all the Ardsley and Elmsford traffic jams and the Saw Mill is generally not a congested road; neither is the Taconic in my experience. You just want to desperately avoid crossing at the Tappan Zee and hitting all the malls and crap.

[ski MRG]

Yeah I think your area might see a little bit of snow from the event, but I'm not too enthusiastic. I'm not saying this to puff up my ego or verify any forecast, either. The 18z GFS clearly shows that the low is trying to cut into the Great Lakes; it's not until after truncation, when the model's resolution drops, that we get the miracle retrograding solution with heavy snow for New England. I still think the GoA low and -PNA are going to cause problems in the early season.

Of course you do. Really going out on a limb saying you don't think the 18z GFS solution at day 10 will verify. You sure you want to be that bold?

[Logan11]

Slipping nicely out here.. 26.6 now. Sadly LES has stayed north ..as expected really.

Of course you do. Really going out on a limb saying you don't think the 18z GFS solution at day 10 will verify. You sure you want to be that bold?

[Hazey]

Whenever I see a solution as depicted on the 18z goofus it almost looks like an ensemble mean. It's as if the pattern is so volatile that even the op doesn't know where to place the low. Thats why you get this giant snowcane look. Then add to the fact that it's post truncation just says go easy and expect placement changes. Just my 2cents. Fun to look at and dream? Yes. Reality will most likely be different.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

I have this act before with the models. Now I have to say I am liking this period for a snowstorm near the 5-6th period. Right now models show the block retrograding from north of the Azores to an area just near the southern Greenland region. Right a GLC is just as likely and a reason for pessimism. I will like to see the models remain consistent with the storm within 7 days if time. Once the Nov 30th through Dec 2nd storm moves through the region next Wednesday we will have a much better idea of a potential snowstorm, or just a frontal boundary.

[nzucker]

Ahh Cool ...I actually noticed further up 9A that there were signs for the Saw Mill again and thought maybe I had exited a bit too soon.

Yeah I take the Taconic often all the way up to either route 82 (leads you nw to RVW Bridge near Hudson) or all the way to its terminus on I-90. It gets very cicuitous in those highlands of Putnam etc., but the traffic isn't usually bad at all.

Yes TZB is a mess rush hours ..... I never touch it, and also $5 or $6 toll now east bound..nasty. Mid/Upper Hudson bridges are still a buck!

Yeah you exited a bit early but still impressive knowledge of the roads for someone who doesn't live in Westchester. The best route for this situation is probably the Saw Mill to the Taconic to 9A, that'll save you a lot of time as 9A is already a highway and then you hit Route 9 as a highway, pretty much ideal. You can cross at the Mid-Hudson Bridge, or Bear Mountain, and get to the Thruway that way. We have a house in the Poconos, and we often take Bear Mountain to avoid the TZB traffic. It's a bit windy but if you take the Taconic to the Bear Mountain Parkway you can do quite well on time versus getting caught in the holiday shopping traffic or rush hour mobs. I'd still recommend the Tappan Zee for quiet times as it's much more direct and you hit the 65mph speed limit very quickly.

Of course you do. Really going out on a limb saying you don't think the 18z GFS solution at day 10 will verify. You sure you want to be that bold?

I just think you're being a bit too exuberant. The 12/2 storm is going to be heavy rain for your area, as well as all of NNE. I think you'll see some frozen around 12/5-6 but still not confident that it'll be a major snow event. Do you agree with this?

[Damage In Tolland]

As long as you're not getting screaming ne winds, you're fine. What it would likely do, is push the snow/sleet line further west.

Just like our Nov snow event a few weeks ago

[Damage In Tolland]

Just like he was with the 1989-esque cold snap for us.

He's been on a roll since last spring actually..though this warm late Dec idea right before X-mas give or take a week is being touted by many long range mets..so it's not really his idea alone

We'd better enjoy Dec 1-20 or so...after that things look bleak..so I;m gonna make the most of the 3 -4 weeks and hope we can all bang out 3-4 maybe 5 nice snowfalls

[ski MRG]

Yeah you exited a bit early but still impressive knowledge of the roads for someone who doesn't live in Westchester. The best route for this situation is probably the Saw Mill to the Taconic to 9A, that'll save you a lot of time as 9A is already a highway and then you hit Route 9 as a highway, pretty much ideal. You can cross at the Mid-Hudson Bridge, or Bear Mountain, and get to the Thruway that way. We have a house in the Poconos, and we often take Bear Mountain to avoid the TZB traffic. It's a bit windy but if you take the Taconic to the Bear Mountain Parkway you can do quite well on time versus getting caught in the holiday shopping traffic or rush hour mobs. I'd still recommend the Tappan Zee for quiet times as it's much more direct and you hit the 65mph speed limit very quickly.

I just think you're being a bit too exuberant. The 12/2 storm is going to be heavy rain for your area, as well as all of NNE. I think you'll see some frozen around 12/5-6 but still not confident that it'll be a major snow event. Do you agree with this?

First of all, Nate, please show me the post where I said I thought the 12/2 storm or any other specific storm progged was going to be a major snow. Secondly, no one in there right mind would be confident that a storm 10 days out would be a major snow event. Conversely, to be just as confident that a storm that far out won't be a major snow event is equally foolish. You are getting tunnel vision with your view of things. It's fine and even commendable that you have the strength of your convictions to ride the ship down if need be.However, the fact of the matter is there is no one one God's green earth that can predict what the coming Winter will bring. Could it be horrible, sure. Could it be a banner year, absolutely. Have fun looking for all the ways it won't snow. You probably won't see very much snow down where you are anyway, so in your backyard you'll probably verify. I for one feel we'll end up with a respectable showing here, we typically do. It's all a matter of perspective. When it comes to LR forecasting I think throwing darts at the wall probably has about the same verification scores as any current methodology so I'm prepared to roll with the punches. As for your specific question whether or not I agree with you I'll say no. I think that it is completely within the realm of possibilities that we could end up with some frozen out of the 12/2 system, is it likely, perhaps not but totally possible. As for the 12/5-6 it's simply too far out to speculate beyond saying that with each passing day it becomes more likely a system will tag us with snow. Keep up the good work and I hope all of your dire predictions end up being a complete and indisputable bust.

[ski MRG]

He's been on a roll since last spring actually..though this warm late Dec idea right before X-mas give or take a week is being touted by many long range mets..so it's not really his idea alone

We'd better enjoy Dec 1-20 or so...after that things look bleak..so I;m gonna make the most of the 3 -4 weeks and hope we can all bang out 3-4 maybe 5 nice snowfalls

Oh please, you can't be serious. Total BS.

[HoarfrostHubb]

He's been on a roll since last spring actually..though this warm late Dec idea right before X-mas give or take a week is being touted by many long range mets..so it's not really his idea alone

We'd better enjoy Dec 1-20 or so...after that things look bleak..so I;m gonna make the most of the 3 -4 weeks and hope we can all bang out 3-4 maybe 5 nice snowfalls

What is this pretty common idea that after December we are screwed? Several others have mentioned it. What is the reason behind it?

I'm not arguing with you, just wondering what sets up that scenario.

[nzucker]

First of all, Nate, please show me the post where I said I thought the 12/2 storm or any other specific storm progged was going to be a major snow. Secondly, no one in there right mind would be confident that a storm 10 days out would be a major snow event. Conversely, to be just as confident that a storm that far out won't be a major snow event is equally foolish. You are getting tunnel vision with your view of things. It's fine and even commendable that you have the strength of your convictions to ride the ship down if need be.However, the fact of the matter is there is no one one God's green earth that can predict what the coming Winter will bring. Could it be horrible, sure. Could it be a banner year, absolutely. Have fun looking for all the ways it won't snow. You probably won't see very much snow down where you are anyway, so in your backyard you'll probably verify. I for one feel we'll end up with a respectable showing here, we typically do. It's all a matter of perspective. When it comes to LR forecasting I think throwing darts at the wall probably has about the same verification scores as any current methodology so I'm prepared to roll with the punches. As for your specific question whether or not I agree with you I'll say no. I think that it is completely within the realm of possibilities that we could end up with some frozen out of the 12/2 system, is it likely, perhaps not but totally possible. As for the 12/5-6 it's simply too far out to speculate beyond saying that with each passing day it becomes more likely a system will tag us with snow. Keep up the good work and I hope all of your dire predictions end up being a complete and indisputable bust.

I'm not calling for a bad winter in your backyard, Pete, I'd predict around average snowfall and slightly above average temperatures. I doubt it'll be a blockbuster winter but it could still be decent for someone with 1400' elevation on the East Slope of the Berskhires.

The 12/2 system does look pretty bleak, though, honestly. You might see some flurries or light snow on the backside, but it's getting pretty close and none of the models have shifted away from the lakes cutter solution. 850s in NYC approach +10C; it's a very warm storm with tons of ridging ahead of it. Even the secondary gets going too late for SNE to see much of a snow threat. Will be a disaster for the ski areas.

And I actually agree with CT Blizz about the pattern later in the winter; it's not likely to be that great, as strong La Niña years tend to have an intense -PNA form by February. We're already seeing that the PNA is a problem, and the NAO breaking down later in the winter will make it even worse. It's just hard to argue against how strong the Pacific signal is right now:

[Damage In Tolland]

What is this pretty common idea that after December we are screwed? Several others have mentioned it. What is the reason behind it?

I'm not arguing with you, just wondering what sets up that scenario.

A lot has to do strictly with ENSO and strong Ninas..That's the main premise. But also the MJO looks to become unfavorable later in Dec..and the stratospheric warming that we are seeing now that is helping the cold/snowy pattern setup is likely to cool. It's likely a bookends type winter..good first and back half with a horrendous middle.. so we are really gonna have to capitalize early and late it would appear.

Ginx and Pete will tell you different..and that's fine..to each their own..I'm just thinking we end up avg snowfall wise..which in a strong nina you have to happy with

[mahk_webstah]

Highly anomalous setups do not mean bad solutions...you guys have got to get last winter out of your head. Feb 1969 was a highly anomalous setup and A chunk of eastern NE got 5 feet in 3 weeks. Dec 1992 was a highly anomalous setup with a blocked flow...that turned out well for many in the interior. Highly anomalous setups can be quite beneficial and deliver good storms. Last year we managed to get close misses in excruciating fashion, but that will happen once in every 3 blue moons, they come in all shapes and sizes.

it was traumatizing....only a large snowstorm can help me move on... Jan last year looked like Feb 69 at one point but then it just got worse and worse and worse until I was raining while NYC was having a snowstorm.