powderfreak Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Not really...I had 70" at my house last year which is more than most of SNE. I also live at 350' in a heavily wooded area. Its definitely a lot harder for you to get snow down there than it was for you up in MIddlebury. You still have any friends up here? I've got this feeling we are in for a good winter up here and it'd be good for you to be able to come up this way for a big whopper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 No it doesn't, but the N PAC is really blocked up too...so I'm not sure how easy it is to dislodge those dual blocks (Kamchatka and NAO). I'm certainly not an expert on that stuff though. For all I know we could see a raging PAC firehose jet by the 10th. The only thing of substance I can really say is probably that it will be hard to dislodge a blocked stable pattern and usually takes longer than models want to change it. Yeah definitely. The fact that the ensembles have it locked in for the day 10-15 period is a good sign... since the models are going to be too quick in breaking it down. I'm thinking that once we start to see the split PV start to reorganize by early December we should have a better idea how much staying power the -NAO has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I won't and am not going to even try; full scale meltdown if that happens again. If you get rain? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 If you get rain? During another HECS this Decemeber...yes. Can't take any more of that putrid luck....I can deal with missing out on a standard 6-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 During another HECS this Decemeber...yes. Can't take any more of that putrid luck....I can deal with missing out an a standard 6-12". Dude.. try living in the CT River Valley the last 2 years. Hell hell hell. We're still paying our debt to weenie society following Feb 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Dude.. try living in the CT River Valley the last 2 years. Hell hell hell. We're still paying our debt to weenie society following Feb 2006. I paid enough debt last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 During another HECS this Decemeber...yes. Can't take any more of that putrid luck....I can deal with missing out an a standard 6-12". Well you're in a much better spot than I am at least...lol. Hopefully, we don't have to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I paid enough debt last year. How much did you get? I think I had like 35" or something horrific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Well you're in a much better spot than I am at least...lol. Hopefully, we don't have to see that. I know what you mean though....looking at things early on, I get a strong "precip type issues inside of rt 495" feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 How much did you get? I think I had like 35" or something horrific 36" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 How much did you get? I think I had like 35" or something horrific I got more than that, but the CT river valley is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I got more than that, but the CT river valley is what it is. Well I average 45"... so I'm about the same as BOS. It's not as terrible as everyone seems to say lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Its not often that my area is TOTALLY shut out in a HECS caliber event (Will can vouch for this), but its happened in 4 cosnecutive and if we make it 5, then I'm going to the funny farm. I dnt think that will happen here, though.....issues, yes.....shutout, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Well I average 45"... so I'm about the same as BOS. It's not as terrible as everyone seems to say lol. Ok, I beat you by 20" last year, as I should....we both got screwed as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Its not often that my area is TOTALLY shut out in a HECS caliber event (Will can vouch for this), but its happened in 4 cosnecutive and if we make it 5, then I'm going to the funny farm. I dnt think that will happen here, though.....issues, yes.....shutout, no. What 4? By shutout I would think 2/6 and 2/10 of this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 What 4? By shutout I would think 2/6 and 2/10 of this year. The 46" in 3 days that Logan11 got, while I didn't see a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 The 46" in 3 days that Logan11 got, while I didn't see a flake. Doesn't it sort of go all the way back to Valentines Day 2007? It seems as though there has been interior HECS, several mid-Atlantic HECS, and not much to speak of on the SNE coastal plain since 2006, right? I definitely agree you are due for one... but Dec 1-3 time frame is never a good time for strong ESE inflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 The 46" in 3 days that Logan11 got, while I didn't see a flake. The Logan11's and NYC 2/26...THANK GOD are much more rarer. We got it out of our system for the time being. I got fooked just as bad here, so I'm ready for a good one as well....though I'd be telling a lie if I said I wasn't worried about the time of year for my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Ray, you probably would have got 18" of paste in the March event with a track like that as well. Will would still be digging out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Doesn't it sort of go all the way back to Valentines Day 2007? It seems as though there has been interior HECS, several mid-Atlantic HECS, and not much to speak of on the SNE coastal plain since 2006, right? I definitely agree you are due for one... but Dec 1-3 time frame is never a good time for strong ESE inflow. 1) I didn't get SO in that...I got about 8" of snow\sleet and remained below freezing. 2) Dec 2008 double header, in which I got a cumulative 22", helped to amerliorate the situation somewhat. We are due, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Ray, you probably would have got 18" of paste in the March event with a track like that as well. Will would still be digging out. I'll tell you one thing, we are due for a 1969 and 2005, consecutively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I need to stop talking about last year....it makes me wanna do bad, bad things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I need to stop talking about last year....it makes me wanna do bad, bad things. Haha... for some reason it wasn't that bad up here because the misses were huge, by like 100s of miles. For you down there it was probably much worse seeing precip shields die not far to the south. Most of last year's HECS didn't really phase me because we were so far removed, lol. I bet it would've been much worse to be so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I need to stop talking about last year....it makes me wanna do bad, bad things. lol ... I was thinking EXACTLY the same thing. Good stuff on the way, no need to bring me down talking about the bendover of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 Yeah enough about 1 in 100 year setups that screwed us last year and Dec 1992s that were' another 0.5C warmer. If that is your fetish, then maybe take it to the "past storms" thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Yeah enough about 1 in 100 year setups that screwed us last year and Dec 1992s that were' another 0.5C warmer. If that is your fetish, then maybe take it to the "past storms" thread. But the weather was so nice in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 But the weather was so nice in March. Yeah, really worth the 49F high I had. I saw that coming from a mile away too...the monster ULL going underneath SNE that would normally be a monster snowstorm, even for Ray's area, but everyone was hoping we'd get another 5F on the boundary layer 5 days before it. But anyway, I digress, literally water under the bridge at this point. We usually post the GFS ensemble analogs...but they have the Canadian ones too on that site for D8....Canadian ensembles are not bad either. I think everyone in eastern SNE would take the early Dec 1981 analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 But the weather was so nice in March. I'd rather 45* and sunny than another rain HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I may have unleashed the dragon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 DEC 1981 FTWFTWFTWFTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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