Pattern Changing: Early December threats?

[ORH_wxman]

I will say 6" for ORH but less for the other three stations.

Combined average temperature for Dec 1-15: -0.5F

I don't think it's arrogant or an unreasonable absolute to say the Pacific is going to be the main influence on our pattern when we have a potentially record-breaking La Niña with a strong -PDO signal, both of these favoring a trough out west and higher heights in the East. Let's face it, the NAO has been quite negative since November 16th and yet temperatures have been well above average for the East with below normal snow opportunities in NNE and the Great Lakes, places that usually have had some snowstorms by now. It looks like we'll be in the same boat in another week as the next storm looks to be a cutter as well, mostly due to the strong -PNA.

A solidly east based -NAO certainly isn't as favorable as a central or west based setup in that type of pattern...which is what we had from about the 15th through the 23rd...this current setup turned into a glorified N ATL ridge for the most part, though most of us didn't have any reasonable hope for this T-day storm, however, if it had been a west based block already developed, we could easily see how today would have produced more snow....we got some cold/brief snow/wintry mix with a crappy version of a -NAO.

Roll forward another week to 10 days, and you have some legit chances.

As for the bolded part, nobody is really arguing that the PAC won't be a big influence on the overall pattern...its just that it doesn't matter as much for snow here than what you think it does.

[nzucker]

Well to be fair Nate, this time of year the NAO isn't going to have all that much of a correlation with our temps, unless there is some cooperation somewhere else.

That's what I've been saying the whole time, and people have been arguing with me. They see a -NAO on the models and think it must mean snow.

The main point: Compared to the Pacific, the NAO is unimportant in late November/early December in determining snow/cold threats for SNE.

I also don't understand why this is becoming personal/acrimonious. Someone makes a forecast and defends it with reasoning, it's good. If they get it right, you admit it was a decent forecast and not resort to name-calling, cries of arrogance, etc. I guarantee if I had made a snowy/cold forecast that verified, I wouldn't be getting any flack regardless of how "arrogant" or "absolute" it was.

[ORH_wxman]

Well to be fair Nate, this time of year the NAO isn't going to have all that much of a correlation with our temps, unless there is some cooperation somewhere else.

The NAO has a very low correlation to temps here in November vs December...you normally start to see the correlation ramp up the last week of the month or so and increase rapidly in December. In fact, December is the month they correlate the highest in New England.

[Ginx snewx]

BDL ORH PVD BOS I said -3 and below 6 or more inches by then each Dec 15th

NZucker said

will say 6" for ORH but less for the other three stations.

Combined average temperature for Dec 1-15: -0.5F

[weatherwiz]

That's what I've been saying the whole time, and people have been arguing with me. They see a -NAO on the models and think it must mean snow.

The main point: Compared to the Pacific, the NAO is unimportant in late November/early December in determining snow/cold threats for SNE.

I also don't understand why this is becoming personal/acrimonious. Someone makes a forecast and defends it with reasoning, it's good. If they get it right, you admit it was a decent forecast and not resort to name-calling, cries of arrogance, etc. I guarantee if I had made a snowy/cold forecast that verified, I wouldn't be getting any flack regardless of how "arrogant" or "absolute" it was.

The NAO has a very low correlation to temps here in November vs December...you normally start to see the correlation ramp up the last week of the month or so and increase rapidly in December. In fact, December is the month they correlate the highest in New England.

Everyone is just so anxious to get snow we all just need to relax...it's going to come. I doubt we go through the winter without any snow whatsoever

This is why I do believe if we can keep this NAO into December and get some help from a -EPO we will see a much colder pattern in December and with a -PNA in place that should help keep a fairly active storm pattern and that's exactly what we want to see heading into December.

[ORH_wxman]

Everyone is just so anxious to get snow we all just need to relax...it's going to come. I doubt we go through the winter without any snow whatsoever

This is why I do believe if we can keep this NAO into December and get some help from a -EPO we will see a much colder pattern in December and with a -PNA in place that should help keep a fairly active storm pattern and that's exactly what we want to see heading into December.

How is this any different to the ideas that have been presented?

[ORH_wxman]

I also don't understand why this is becoming personal/acrimonious. Someone makes a forecast and defends it with reasoning, it's good. If they get it right, you admit it was a decent forecast and not resort to name-calling, cries of arrogance, etc. I guarantee if I had made a snowy/cold forecast that verified, I wouldn't be getting any flack regardless of how "arrogant" or "absolute" it was.

I would have argued it if it was unsound reasoning. I think some of your reasoning in this current thread has been dubious, which is why I have made several responses to your ideas.

[weatherwiz]

How is this any different to the ideas that have been presented?

To be honest with you I have no clue what the "argument" is really about anymore.

I honestly think that all of us have the same idea as to how things may transpire in that timeframe so I'm not sure where all the arguments are coming from...boring times perhaps?

It does make for some fun and interesting discussion though.

[nzucker]

I would have argued it if it was unsound reasoning. I think some of your reasoning in this current thread has been dubious, which is why I have made several responses to your ideas.

Yes but there's a difference between arguing like you do as a meteorology debate between friends and some of the nasty, personal comments I got about how "I barely starting shaving" etc which shouldn't have even been allowed to be posted. That's the issue I take here. Most people are just upset because the pattern isn't working out as expected, and they are using me and "my arrogance" as a scapegoat. It's a classic case of "shooting the messenger."

I may seem cocky in my forecasts, but I just like to be confident and steady in what I say. I think that overall this has been working out well with this particular forecast. The cold/snowy pattern keeps getting pushed farther back on the models and each storm that looks great turns out to be a cutter with a short-lived cold shot.

Remember I went cold and snowy in my December forecast so I'm actually on the line here too if we don't get this pattern change. Believe me I spent a lot of time on that outlook and I want it to look decent. I need this pattern change to start happening soon.

[ORH_wxman]

Yes but there's a difference between arguing like you do as a meteorology debate between friends and some of the nasty, personal comments I got about how "I barely starting shaving" etc which shouldn't have even been allowed to be posted. That's the issue I take here. Most people are just upset because the pattern isn't working out as expected, and they are using me and "my arrogance" as a scapegoat. It's a classic case of "shooting the messenger."

I may seem cocky in my forecasts, but I just like to be confident and steady in what I say. I think that overall this has been working out well with this particular forecast. The cold/snowy pattern keeps getting pushed farther back on the models and each storm that looks great turns out to be a cutter with a short-lived cold shot.

Remember I went cold and snowy in my December forecast so I'm actually on the line here too if we don't get this pattern change. Believe me I spent a lot of time on that outlook and I want it to look decent. I need this pattern change to start happening soon.

Well I think its perhaps that you have been arguing pretty hard against some ideas that supposedly aren't far from yours. I thought we'd enter a higher threat pattern at the very end of this month into at least the first 10 days or so of December....and you seem to be using all these talking points to argue against that and then turn around and say "I went snowy in December too". I rushed it even though I tried to hold off longer than the models...so I was wrong on timing. I might still be wrong overall. I don't know. I am not a long range forecasting expert.

Snow is certainly more likely after December 10th than before it as per climo...but using the PNA as a reason it won't snow in the first 10 days of December is a really weak argument to me, so that's where we disagree. Remember, I was forecasting a good chance of "first snow threat" which would probably be like a 1-3" or 2-4" type deal. We aren't talking 12"+ or bust for verification.

[skierinvermont]

I think these might be some of the absolutes..

It's just never correct to bet against the Pacific, and this is going to be a nasty Pacific pattern for a while.

no one is trying to be arrogant. In fact, it looks like my assertions about the coming pattern were more correct than many of the mets here, at least with what is being shown right now.

This from the guy who says it wasn't a hot summer when it was the 2nd warmest on record. What a joke this is.

I just think you are overrating the PAC pattern WRT New England snowfall chances. It can becoming so overwhelming in conjunction with a terrible Atlantic that we all get screwed like the late 90s Ninas. But I find that to be the exception rather than rule...usually its a lot more complicated than that.

As for '54-'55, it could happen again, but that would be a pretty tough repeat...a cold/-NAO La Nina that was terrible for snowfall here.

Also if you are going to delve into winters like '50-'51 and '54-'55 that were noticeably weaker than this current Nina, then we'll have to include '56-'57, '64-'65, and '71-'72.

I have been seeing the signal for a -PNA on the models for days, and no one wanted to believe it. It wasn't just today,

First of all, I was not the typical arrogant Middlebury student who wants to be a financial mogul on Wall Street.

I was adamant that the La Niña was not weakening, despite the comments by DT and many others (including Sam, wxwatcher) who were basically declaring the event dead. The CPC weeklies dropped a bunch last week with Region 3.4 at -1.5C, and there's been a massive amount of cooling in the last few days in Region 4 and Region 3. I decided to contradict some good meteorologists and forecasters, and it worked out. So what's wrong with that?

It's looking pretty good for me at this point

You are pathetic and I am sick of you arguing with me just for your own ego. It is all a product of your low self-confidence and low self-esteem that you have to do this.

, I never bet on a good pattern when the Pacific is rapidly cooling. I also rarely bet the Atlantic against the Pacific, as that's just ignoring the fact that we're downstream of the Pacific and it is a much larger basin with a greater influence on global patterns. A massive -PNA and GoA Low can easily win the battle over a -NAO and 50/50 Low.

People here aren't really criticizing me for my arrogance; they're criticizing me for saying what they don't want to hear. So far, what they don't want to hear has been happening.

Even with a great -NAO we would have had mostly rain from this system.

In the end, you are the one that has this excessive personal pride that makes you always want to bash other people's forecasts, even when you don't make a forecast yourself. It's horrific.

and please don't rip me in this thread, i am already being treated very unfairly and you are adding fuel to the fire for eekholes

I also think you need to stop criticizing me on the boards. You're letting people who actually dislike me add more fire to their arguments, even though you know that I am way more knowledgeable about meteorology than they are. And whether anyone likes it or not, I got this one right. I said snow isn't coming around Thanksgiving or the first couple days of December, and it's not. No chances until the 6th at least and that one looks marginal too. You just have difficulty admitting when I am right but it is OK to do so sometimes. Also, if you want to critique someone's forecast, maybe you should be doing some forecasting yourself. People who share their thoughts are often unfairly attacked from those who don't share their thoughts because they fear being wrong. You fall into this group. And your prior forecasts don't make me take your criticism very seriously either...

Jeez man.. relax.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think these might be some of the absolutes..

Jeez man.. relax.

lolz

[nzucker]

It is the tirade of negative comments that gets me riled up. This is supposed to be a meteorology discussion and yet some feel it is OK to make personal attacks against me.

And why do you need to post all my comments? Some of them are totally out of context and people have already seen what was written before. Many of the seemingly arrogant responses were in response to disgusting attacks made by the usual suspects in the thread. Interesting you didn't quote that part and only mine, and then highlighted the comments you thought were worth making a point of.

Also, I asked you to get online and discuss this if you wanted to criticize me but of course you never appeared.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Nate, we all like you, but take this little tip....when multiple people come at you with the same piece of advice, then you should probably consider that that common assertion\observation may have some validity.

A poster from the tri state area threads actually PMed me to reaffirm some of my contentions regarding you.

I'm far from perfect as you all know.....I could certainly stand to improve my posting habits.

[ORH_wxman]

I haven't be able to be on much the past 2-3 days...only a few minutes at a time. But I will say that if people make personal attacks, they will be warned and put on a 5 post per day limit for a while. So I'd cool it with those.

There is no need to derail the thread into a pissing contest...anyone who disagrees with someone is free to post, but just give some solid reasoning and keep it cordial.

[weatherwiz]

I haven't be able to be on much the past 2-3 days...only a few minutes at a time. But I will say that if people make personal attacks, they will be warned and put on a 5 post per day limit for a while. So I'd cool it with those.

There is no need to derail the thread into a pissing contest...anyone who disagrees with someone is free to post, but just give some solid reasoning and keep it cordial.

That's been the issue, he has been getting personally attacked at times and the people doing so have yet to make one post of argument or use any data, the only one really doing that has been you...and Scott. At least you two are participating in the discussion the right way, using data and such to back up what you have to say and I know you've proven me wrong at least once, especially with the -NAO/-PNA signal and how it can very good for us in terms of snowfall.

There have been countless others who are just bashing him but yet are using nothing to make an augmentative point except basically say to just listen to you.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That's been the issue, he has been getting personally attacked at times and the people doing so have yet to make one post of argument or use any data, the only one really doing that has been you...and Scott. At least you two are participating in the discussion the right way, using data and such to back up what you have to say and I know you've proven me wrong at least once, especially with the -NAO/-PNA signal and how it can very good for us in terms of snowfall.

There have been countless others who are just bashing him but yet are using nothing to make an augmentative point except basically say to just listen to you.

I must have missed that; haven't been on much the past couple days....no need to attack anyone....agreed.

We met him at the gtg and he's a great young man.....some may be getting frustrated with the dull pattern and taking it out on him since he's become the "no snow for you" poster boy......fair or not.

[skierinvermont]

That's been the issue, he has been getting personally attacked at times and the people doing so have yet to make one post of argument or use any data, the only one really doing that has been you...and Scott. At least you two are participating in the discussion the right way, using data and such to back up what you have to say and I know you've proven me wrong at least once, especially with the -NAO/-PNA signal and how it can very good for us in terms of snowfall.

There have been countless others who are just bashing him but yet are using nothing to make an augmentative point except basically say to just listen to you.

yes I think some people have been sort of mocking him unfairly which was all fun and games for a while but it's not fair to blame Nate for getting pissed

[40/70 Benchmark]

yes I think some people have been sort of mocking him unfairly which was all fun and games for a while but it's not fair to blame Nate for getting pissed

Hope you don't mean the socks jokes...all in good fun; we all have our own little nuances that are the source of humor....like Kev rides me about using too much hair gel. lol

[skierinvermont]

Hope you don't mean the socks jokes...all in good fun; we all have our own little nuances that are the source of humor....like Kev rides me about using too much hair gel. lol

no no.. the socks jokes are hilarious lol.. i think some of the comments about age were below the belt and a couple other things. Of course I am the same age so sensitive to that sort of thing.

[ORH_wxman]

OP GFS plus its ensembles hinting at possibilities Dec 4-5....Euro was also on board with a possibility in that time frame.

The OP GFS is actually a good weenie solution for NYC...it redevelops an OH Valley runner very quickly into a Miller B and moves it due east jackpotting them.

[40/70 Benchmark]

no no.. the socks jokes are hilarious lol.. i think some of the comments about age were below the belt and a couple other things. Of course I am the same age so sensitive to that sort of thing.

Nothing wrong with pointing out that experience comes with age.....it just is what it is.

We have also said countless times how intelligent he is and that he reminds us of a young Will.

Sorry for the derail, Will....done.

[nzucker]

Hope you don't mean the socks jokes...all in good fun; we all have our own little nuances that are the source of humor....like Kev rides me about using too much hair gel. lol

I don't mind the socks jokes at all, I like having a good time with you guys.

But I'd like to keep this pattern discussion to people backing up forecasts with reasoning/model data/analogs, etc...the personal insults got out of control for a couple days and I felt very offended. Some of my responses may have seemed out of line but I just can't handle being mocked constantly.

[ORH_wxman]

Nothing wrong with pointing out that experience comes with age.....it just is what it is.

We have also said countless times how intelligent he is and that he reminds us of a young Will.

Sorry for the derail, Will....done.

Hey, you didn't know me at pre-25 years old.

[40/70 Benchmark]

OP GFS plus its ensembles hinting at possibilities Dec 4-5....Euro was also on board with a possibility in that time frame.

The OP GFS is actually a good weenie solution for NYC...it redevelops an OH Valley runner very quickly into a Miller B and moves it due east jackpotting them.

That Dec 4-5 is a def. threat; not a very signifcant one, but it would be accompanied by the novelty associated with the inaugural snowfall of the season for many...including myself.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Hey, you didn't know me at pre-25 years old.

I know, lol.....but I have always imagined you similar to him at that age.

[weatherwiz]

Well I'm glad were all kissed and made up

[nzucker]

OP GFS plus its ensembles hinting at possibilities Dec 4-5....Euro was also on board with a possibility in that time frame.

The OP GFS is actually a good weenie solution for NYC...it redevelops an OH Valley runner very quickly into a Miller B and moves it due east jackpotting them.

Early December will be cold and snowy, brutally snowy for those with 350' elevation in Dobbs Ferry. Huge pattern coming. I am waxing the shovel as we speak Will.

Hey, you didn't know me at pre-25 years old.

He was pretty immature back then, had only memorized SNE's every snowstorm back to 1950 instead of the current 1870-present archive.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't mind the socks jokes at all, I like having a good time with you guys.

But I'd like to keep this pattern discussion to people backing up forecasts with reasoning/model data/analogs, etc...the personal insults got out of control for a couple days and I felt very offended. Some of my responses may have seemed out of line but I just can't handle being mocked constantly.

Yea, like I said....you unfortunately became the poster boy for "FU winter" lol........one thing that I and other long time members have noticed is that the dynamic of this place has changed dramatically over the course of the past few yrs due to the surge in board population; this requires some modification of board decorum.

[ski MRG]

Yes but there's a difference between arguing like you do as a meteorology debate between friends and some of the nasty, personal comments I got about how "I barely starting shaving" etc which shouldn't have even been allowed to be posted. That's the issue I take here. Most people are just upset because the pattern isn't working out as expected, and they are using me and "my arrogance" as a scapegoat. It's a classic case of "shooting the messenger."

I may seem cocky in my forecasts, but I just like to be confident and steady in what I say. I think that overall this has been working out well with this particular forecast. The cold/snowy pattern keeps getting pushed farther back on the models and each storm that looks great turns out to be a cutter with a short-lived cold shot.

Remember I went cold and snowy in my December forecast so I'm actually on the line here too if we don't get this pattern change. Believe me I spent a lot of time on that outlook and I want it to look decent. I need this pattern change to start happening soon.

Hey Nate, I'm truly sorry if that offended you. It was intended to be light hearted. I have said several times I think you're a bright kid. I enjoy your posts and the time you put into them. If you want to say we're not getting a flake of snow all Winter and SNE's climate will now be that of South Carolina have at it. It won't change my personal opinion of you other than I'll think you're a stark raving lunatic. If people here truly had an issue with you you'd have been run out on a rail immediately, we've had a few of those. To the contrary, I think most would agree with me that you add to the wealth of knowledge displayed here and have been welcomed into the fold. Just choose your words a little more carefully. Try not to start posts with "Will, you must realize that....." just sounds a little too arrogant. I haven't followed other remarks that have been made about you closely but if they're coming from the regular SNE posters I doubt they were meant to hurt you. Jocular humor dude. I've gotten my fair share of ribbing about my hair or where I live etc. NBD, it's fun and funny to return fire. Good luck with all your assertions and if you bust be prepared for a withering assault of "what happened to your ....." type posts. It'll all be good natured. Ok, feel better? Need a hug? BTW don't go into construction. ( That last little bit was joking around)