Pattern Changing: Early December threats?

[weatherwiz]

No offense wiz, but you really don't know what you are talking about here. I'm not sure why I have to keep coming up with examples and physical explanations for why a -EPO/-PNA/-NAO pattern is good for snow here.

You can believe what you want, but I can tell you that your reasoning makes very little sense to me.

I don't have time to respond to everything right now, but I'll be on later.

Who said a -EPO/-PNA-NAO pattern isn't good for snows here? I never said that. That of course is a great signal for snow here. The years you posted with -NAO/-PNA pattern were all basically solid years, with the exception of a few but those were more of a minority.

But until we see something setup like that our chances will not be pretty, and just b/c some models are now showing it doesn't mean it's going to occur, when the models continue to show these signals within 5 to even 6 days well then maybe we will indeed see something.

It's just the same thing every year this time, one second everyone is happy then the next second everyone is going nuts cancelling things left and right. Why does it seem when a model or models show a solution people want it all of a sudden has to be correct and anyone who disagrees get's trashed on? Then when the models switch solutions people start getting defensive and start saying oh it's delayed or the models will switch back.

Nobody (including Nate or myself) was saying you were wrong or you're wrong or you're going to bust...or anything along those lines. You've obviously provided lots of facts and data to back up your claims, but really besides you, Scott, and Phil who else has? Nobody.

Nate hasn't said a -EPO/-PNA/-NAO setup isn't good for us, he's even agreed it is and there really isn't any reason why anyone shouldn't agree with that, all they have to do is look at the data.

It's just we both feel until a pattern like that sets up were likely going to see more cutters than anything and I agree with him.

[skierinvermont]

Will is too nice to basically say you're wrong and what you are saying doesn't make sense.

The only thing I've observed in this thread is that a beautiful massive -NAO block failed to materialize this week, contrary to everybody's expectations (we got a weaker one in a bad spot). I don't see anybody having been more "right" than anybody else, and I don't really care except that it's annoying. So the claims of "my thoughts did XXXX..." should probably go in the garbage.

[nzucker]

Will is too nice to basically say you're wrong and what you are saying doesn't make sense.

The only thing I've observed in this thread is that a beautiful massive -NAO block failed to materialize this week, contrary to everybody's expectations (we got a weaker one in a bad spot). I don't see anybody having been more "right" than anybody else, and I don't really care except that it's annoying. So the claims of "my thoughts did XXXX..." should probably go in the garbage.

The NAO is there, it didn't retrograde quite as much with the great 50/50 that some of the models were showing, but it was mostly the Pacific that screwed things up. When there's a massive -PNA that brings -2C 850s to LA, you're not going to get an East Coast snowstorm. The lows just amplify too early and pump up a ridge ahead of them, which we can't afford without arctic air ahead of the system and when it's only late November. Even with a great -NAO we would have had mostly rain from this system.

Also, having a strong La Niña means there's less chance for a persistent -NAO block that lasts for weeks. So everyone should be cautious when the models show the blocking sitting over Baffin Island for ages. A prudent forecast always puts less emphasis on the modeled Atlantic pattern and more emphasis on the given Pacific pattern. That's what I did and it's working out so far. No reason to criticize me.

And if you don't care who's right or wrong, why are you telling Paul that Will knows he's wrong but just isn't saying it to be nice? Why are you also bashing me for not being right if you don't care? In the end, you are the one that has this excessive personal pride that makes you always want to bash other people's forecasts, even when you don't make a forecast yourself. It's horrific.

[skierinvermont]

The NAO is there, it didn't retrograde quite as much with the great 50/50 that some of the models were showing, but it was mostly the Pacific that screwed things up. When there's a massive -PNA that brings -2C 850s to LA, you're not going to get an East Coast snowstorm. The lows just amplify too early and pump up a ridge ahead of them, which we can't afford without arctic air ahead of the system and when it's only late November. Even with a great -NAO we would have had mostly rain from this system.

Also, having a strong La Niña means there's less chance for a persistent -NAO block that lasts for weeks. So everyone should be cautious when the models show the blocking sitting over Baffin Island for ages. A prudent forecast always puts less emphasis on the modeled Atlantic pattern and more emphasis on the given Pacific pattern. That's what I did and it's working out so far. No reason to criticize me.

To the bolded... you know this based on what? Your extensive studies of atmospheric physics? Will has given examples of snows occurring in a -PNA as long as the Atlantic is good. Obviously it is only late November so our chances are low to begin with, but had the -NAO block materialized similar to how it was modeled with the good 50/50 low, we would have had our chances.

And if you don't care who's right or wrong, why are you telling Paul that Will knows he's wrong but just isn't saying it to be nice? Why are you also bashing me for not being right if you don't care? In the end, you are the one that has this excessive personal pride that makes you always want to bash other people's forecasts, even when you don't make a forecast yourself. It's horrific.

Because the constant back and forth over this is getting annoying. I don't make a forecast because I don't claim to have any special knowledge or skill at this. Anyways, that's enough from me. I'll leave this to the people who know what they're talking about. Simply remarking on what I have read so far.

[free_man]

I don't believe this ongoing battle between ideas is moving the discussion forward.

[weatherwiz]

To the bolded... you know this based on what? Your extensive studies of atmospheric physics? Will has given examples of snows occurring in a -PNA as long as the Atlantic is good. Obviously it is only late November so our chances are low to begin with, but had the -NAO block materialized similar to how it was modeled with the good 50/50 low, we would have had our chances.

That's the issue, too many people put emphasis on the "but" or the "if"...but nothing or if nothing.

How often do you actually see something extreme that is portrayed on the long range models actually occur? Not many. Last year was an exception with the record -AO/-NAO but everything that needed to come together for something that extreme came together.

When is the Atlantic going to become good? Most of the forecasts from long-range mets all state that the any -NAO will probably weaken as we move through the winter and could end up on average right around neutral...as soon as we lose any favorable -NAO/-NAO block I think we are cooked.

I'm not going to get excited just b/c models are showing some insane setup in the long-range b/c chances are as we get closer it's not going to pan out.

When it comes to SNE people just look for any excuse to give us major winters, it's plain and simple. Heck, we could have a pattern that is ABSOLUTELY 1998-1999 like, or 1999-2000 like and some people would still think we have a shot.

[CT Rain]

I don't believe this ongoing battle between ideas is moving the discussion forward.

I don't even see what people are arguing about anymore. lol.

[weatherwiz]

Just as I stated, whenever someone gives ideas that aren't deemed "good" for SNE they get trashed on, yet if these same people were going crazy calling for snow/cold everyone would be riding on their back.

People have a right to make a forecast and people have the right to make a call, it's not like people are just throwing stuff out there without using some type of info to back it up. If anyone is offended b/c of the back and forth than maybe they just don't understand.

[nzucker]

To the bolded... you know this based on what? Your extensive studies of atmospheric physics? Will has given examples of snows occurring in a -PNA as long as the Atlantic is good. Obviously it is only late November so our chances are low to begin with, but had the -NAO block materialized similar to how it was modeled with the good 50/50 low, we would have had our chances.

As I said in the PM, I took the Pacific signal much more seriously than the Atlantic signal because one was a near guarantee to occur and the other was model speculation.

Also, we currently have a huge -NAO block, Andrew, and we've still got storms cutting to our west. The problem is you need a perfect configuration of the NAO/50-50 to get a storm whereas just a generally unfavorable Pacific, regardless of its exact configuration, is enough to say game over.

[weatherwiz]

As I said in the PM, I took the Pacific signal much more seriously than the Atlantic signal because one was a near guarantee to occur and the other was model speculation.

Also, we currently have a huge -NAO block, Andrew, and we've still got storms cutting to our west. The problem is you need a perfect configuration of the NAO/50-50 to get a storm whereas just a generally unfavorable Pacific, regardless of its exact configuration, is enough to say game over.

This is exactly why the -NAO block would have been better off in another month or so, the -NAO has a much higher correlation to us here in SNE from about mid December through early March.

I just don't see how a weak -NAO is going to help us in another month (unless we end up seeing a raging -EPO) when the Pacific is totally driving things.

[CT Rain]

As I said in the PM, I took the Pacific signal much more seriously than the Atlantic signal because one was a near guarantee to occur and the other was model speculation.

Also, we currently have a huge -NAO block, Andrew, and we've still got storms cutting to our west. The problem is you need a perfect configuration of the NAO/50-50 to get a storm whereas just a generally unfavorable Pacific, regardless of its exact configuration, is enough to say game over.

I think that's completely wrong. We've seen many good snow setups with a bad looking Pac.

[nzucker]

I think that's completely wrong. We've seen many good snow setups with a bad looking Pac.

In late November?

I think people are generalizing this discussion too much. In my forecast, I was talking about the next couple of weeks, say the period between November 20th and December 5th or so. I was not saying that you can't get snow with a -PNA/-NAO in New England because Will has conclusively proven that it is indeed quite probable in those conditions. It's a different story later in the winter as the storm track adjusts farther south, it's a different story if you have some ridging near Alaska/Beaufort Sea with a -PNA (like December 2007), it's a different story when there's a damming high over Quebec/Ontario. I was talking about this set-up and this set-up only.

Also, it seems that lately the -NAO has been so massive it's becoming associated with warmth in Southeast Canada rather than cold. In the old days, we liked a -NAO because it drew confluence into Southeast Canada, and those cold high pressures allowed for more snow from SW flow events or marginal coastals. It's been the opposite lately, with last winter and early this winter showing how the extent of the -NAO is actually warming up the areas we need to stay cold, especially combined with the fact that the PV is too far away to get squeezed southward by the block. This also has to do with the time of winter we are in.

[weatherwiz]

If I'm coming off like a douche I'll apologize, I'm going through some real tough times with a few friends right now and it's absolutely kind of killing me. I made some poor judgement over the past week and it may have coasted me big time and I'm trying to resolve it.

[CT Rain]

In late November?

Yes, Pac isn't everything.

[HoarfrostHubb]

If I'm coming off like a douche I'll apologize, I'm going through some real tough times with a few friends right now and it's absolutely kind of killing me. I made some poor judgement over the past week and it may have coasted me big time and I'm trying to resolve it.

If they are truly your friends it will work out.

Anyway, this winter looks like it is slow to start...

[CT Rain]

I don't know what all the chair tipping and rope hanging is for. Models still showing the EPO flipping to negative by 12/1 or so with a continuation of the -EPO, albeit weak, through the first week of December. We also have a nice -NAO that was well forecast 10 days ago and remains in place through the next 10-15 days.

Seems to me post-Lakes Cutter on 12/1 we enter a more favorable snow regime with temps near normal.

[nzucker]

Yes, Pac isn't everything.

I'm just saying with forecasting LR, it's easier to base the forecast off the Pacific state since it's less likely to vary intensely in a strong La Niña. The NAO can shift around a lot from west-based to east-based, which is sort of what happened. People who got excited about snowstorms and brutal cold weren't considering the obviously unfavorable Pacific condition (cooling ENSO regions, weak MJO activity, strong forecast for a -PNA) and instead just decided to focus on one aspect of the model that was subject to change, the exact position of an NAO block. They also ignored the fact that it was early in the season to be counting on an NAO block and redeveloping SW flow events.

[weatherwiz]

My biggest worry is how things seemed to be getting pushed back, I know it's still relatively early but to see something like that occur, especially in a strong Nina is not good. It first appeared that the pattern after this system passes would become more favorable...not happening....then it appeared well first few days of December or first week...not happening.

How much further until things keep getting pushed back until something finally does kick in?

[nzucker]

My biggest worry is how things seemed to be getting pushed back, I know it's still relatively early but to see something like that occur, especially in a strong Nina is not good. It first appeared that the pattern after this system passes would become more favorable...not happening....then it appeared well first few days of December or first week...not happening.

How much further until things keep getting pushed back until something finally does kick in?

Agreed, and most LR forecasts have the NAO/AO block breaking down later in the winter. If that happens with this Pacific pattern, we're screwed.

[weatherwiz]

I do think we'll see a favorable pattern, or at least a more favorable pattern come mid-December, and of course well have help from climo but I think the window of opportunity is not that big and come January things begin to break down. If anyone in SNE really wants hopes for an above-average snowfall then I think were going to have to get pounded from about mid-December to early January.

[CT Rain]

Last 10 days of -NAO/-EPO.

Popping the EPO ridge over western British Columbia/Northwest Territories would likely have a much different outcome.

[ski MRG]

I do think we'll see a favorable pattern, or at least a more favorable pattern come mid-December, and of course well have help from climo but I think the window of opportunity is not that big and come January things begin to break down. If anyone in SNE really wants hopes for an above-average snowfall then I think were going to have to get pounded from about mid-December to early January.

Yeah, Winter is usually like 2-3 weeks long here. By the middle of January snow chances really drop off and the daffodils start sprouting.lol

[nzucker]

I don't know what all the chair tipping and rope hanging is for. Models still showing the EPO flipping to negative by 12/1 or so with a continuation of the -EPO, albeit weak, through the first week of December. We also have a nice -NAO that was well forecast 10 days ago and remains in place through the next 10-15 days.

Seems to me post-Lakes Cutter on 12/1 we enter a more favorable snow regime with temps near normal.

What do you think about the potential for another lakes cutter on 12/5 or 12/6? Do you think that storm will be colder than currently shown?

[CT Rain]

What do you think about the potential for another lakes cutter on 12/5 or 12/6? Do you think that storm will be colder than currently shown?

I think it's more likely to track south and east of today's storm and the storm on 12/1. I think we're slowly evolving the pattern to be a bit more favorable.

[weatherwiz]

Yeah, Winter is usually like 2-3 weeks long here. By the middle of January snow chances really drop off and the daffodils start sprouting.lol

Well you're going to be the exception lol...you're going to see snow and probably a good deal of it.

[weatherMA]

I do think we'll see a favorable pattern, or at least a more favorable pattern come mid-December, and of course well have help from climo but I think the window of opportunity is not that big and come January things begin to break down. If anyone in SNE really wants hopes for an above-average snowfall then I think were going to have to get pounded from about mid-December to early January.

I'll be away from Christmas to New years, so you can count on something good in that timeframe. The one year we dont get grinch storm near christmas with 50 and rain I'll be away most likely.

[Ginx snewx]

What stations am I forecasting for?

BDL ORH PVD BOS I said -3 and below 6 or more inches by then each Dec 15th

[ORH_wxman]

In late November?

I think people are generalizing this discussion too much. In my forecast, I was talking about the next couple of weeks, say the period between November 20th and December 5th or so. I was not saying that you can't get snow with a -PNA/-NAO in New England because Will has conclusively proven that it is indeed quite probable in those conditions. It's a different story later in the winter as the storm track adjusts farther south, it's a different story if you have some ridging near Alaska/Beaufort Sea with a -PNA (like December 2007), it's a different story when there's a damming high over Quebec/Ontario. I was talking about this set-up and this set-up only.

Then you are essentially only half-arguing against some people's thoughts here. I thought we'd enter a nice regime starting the last couple days of November through about Dec 10th-ish...I look to have rushed it a few days which isn't surprising. Nobody has the skill to nail it down that close...if they do, I have yet to see it consistently. They are probably making bundles of money somewhere for commodities.

I've also seen a ton of absolutes from you such as "The pacific is overwhelming the whole pattern" and "its too early for this, in a couple more weeks it would be much better"....well the 2nd phrase isn't exactly wrong, it would be better because climo is colder, but that does not mean its unfavorable on December 6th. "The NAO block didn't develop because of the pacific"...really? How do you know? There's a bunch of different reasons it could have failed to develop as modeled, and the Pacific pattern is just one on a long list.

SW flow event setups walk a fine line here, so you are going to see some modeled storms that look very close or may just cut west at the last second. That is also not uncommon to see only to have them get shoved SE as we get closer. Will it happen this time? I don't know. I can only look at the general pattern and comment on whether we'll have chances or not. They may or may not work out. I can say I've seen many patterns a lot worse than this upcoming one.

I really hate to drag this thread into a terrible "he said, she said" argument and "Scoring points"...I can go back and point how you told me on eastern that 10 day period after Nov 9th wouldn't be mild and I disagreed. But what does that prove? That you have no credibility? I don't think it does. So I think that kind of back patting stuff is pointless compared to the actual arguing points. Yes, climo is certainly more favorable on Dec 17th vs Dec 6th, but I've seen plenty of setups near the former date produce, including this upcoming one.

Unfortunately all I can really do is speculate and put an educated guess out there. I don't know how individual short waves are going to materialize in the long wave pattern, and even the long waves themselves could set up slightly differently than modeled at this time range.

[nzucker]

BDL ORH PVD BOS I said -3 and below 6 or more inches by then each Dec 15th

I will say 6" for ORH but less for the other three stations.

Combined average temperature for Dec 1-15: -0.5F

I've also seen a ton of absolutes from you such as "The pacific is overwhelming the whole pattern" and "its too early for this, in a couple more weeks it would be much better"....well the 2nd phrase isn't exactly wrong, it would be better because climo is colder, but that does not mean its unfavorable on December 6th. "The NAO block didn't develop because of the pacific"...really? How do you know? There's a bunch of different reasons it could have failed to develop as modeled, and the Pacific pattern is just one on a long list.

I don't think it's arrogant or an unreasonable absolute to say the Pacific is going to be the main influence on our pattern when we have a potentially record-breaking La Niña with a strong -PDO signal, both of these favoring a trough out west and higher heights in the East. Let's face it, the NAO has been quite negative since November 16th and yet temperatures have been well above average for the East with below normal snow opportunities in NNE and the Great Lakes, places that usually have had some snowstorms by now. It looks like we'll be in the same boat in another week as the next storm looks to be a cutter as well, mostly due to the strong -PNA.

I really hate to drag this thread into a terrible "he said, she said" argument and "Scoring points"...I can go back and point how you told me on eastern that 10 day period after Nov 9th wouldn't be mild and I disagreed. But what does that prove? That you have no credibility? I don't think it does.

This is water under the bridge, but I was mostly talking about the next few days after November 9th and about how the nighttime minimums would be fairly close to average with slightly warmer than normal days. I wasn't referring to the days that turned out to be a total torch in the November 16-23 period. I do admit however, that I would have thought we'd still be slightly below normal for the month at this point, not above normal, considering that we started -7F for the first week. I definitely busted on that...2010's warmth never ceases to amaze. Hopefully the elephant will be gone for good soon.

[weatherwiz]

Well to be fair Nate, this time of year the NAO isn't going to have all that much of a correlation with our temps, unless there is some cooperation somewhere else.