Pattern Changing: Early December threats?

[weatherwiz]

We'll probably see some excellent snow chances and get hit with snow left and right between Dec. 15th and the first few weeks of January.

[ski MRG]

Yeah but that's business as usual on the coastal plain... there are a lot of areas that usually have seen something of significance by now. For one, the Lake Effect regions have seen nothing and they usually get at least 1-2 events on the Tug before Thanksgiving (though there is one event that will take place this weekend). Most of northern New England usually has snow on the ground in some capacity and we are bare. Sure, we've seen a bunch of trace-1.5" events, but usually by now we've had at least one 3-6 incher. There's 1" of snow at the Mount Mansfield snow stake (3,900ft) right now when the 50-year mean is 12" right now.

I know some of you guys have some fetish with Zucker being right (lol, not directed at you Ray) but he has been steadfast warm and that seems to be working for him right now. I'm not jumping off any bridge or tipping a chair over, just pointing out that while its too early to say he's right... its definitely too early to say he's wrong.

Scott, have a great T-day. I have no problem with Zuck's outlook, everyone's entitled to an opinion. I think a good deal of the negative reaction he is getting comes from the didactic tone of his posts especially when he is speaking to Mets whose knowledge and training far exceeds his own. I've met Nate and he seems like a very nice kid that is enthusiastic about meteorology. However, in his youthful exhuberence he comes across as a little too cocky. I for one am not at all pessimistic about the upcoming Winter. I've been down the path of a slow start many times before. The cold and snowy climate that makes New England such a great place to live will emerge, as it has year after year.

[powderfreak]

Scott, have a great T-day. I have no problem with Zuck's outlook, everyone's entitled to an opinion. I think a good deal of the negative reaction he is getting comes from the didactic tone of his posts especially when he is speaking to Mets whose knowledge and training far exceeds his own. I've met Nate and he seems like a very nice kid that is enthusiastic about meteorology. However, in his youthful exhuberence he comes across as a little too cocky. I for one am not at all pessimistic about the upcoming Winter. I've been down the path of a slow start many times before. The cold and snowy climate that makes New England such a great place to live will emerge, as it has year after year.

Haha, now I'm going to start a war but that's how a lot of us at UVM thought of those Middlebury students... cocky And I'm sure all the Middlebury students thought us UVM'ers were just a bunch of stoned drunks.

I honestly don't go over to the general Weather Forecasting and Discussion forum anymore but I have heard he can have at it with some of the Mets over there. But in general, I do sense that some on here don't have a problem with his forecast, but more his delivery of such information... there's a fine line between confident vs. cocky. I just don't like when people rip into his forecast because its warm and goes against what they want to happen; until we get a sustained period of colder than normal, his forecast is going to be correct unfortunately.

Anyway, happy thanksgiving to you too, Pete. Been ripping groomers the past couple days as that's all we have to play with. I forgot how much I love being up on the mountain every single day... the weather is so much more fun to monitor on the mountain than it is down in the valleys and the mountain is always changing from day to day. I think we get a good bit of ice tonight as wet bulbs are still in the teens right now.

[weathafella]

Tequila means business here. 82/61

[Ginx snewx]

Bostonfella, cold antecedent conditions here, looks like more frozen type than many thought.

[weathafella]

<br />Bostonfella, cold antecedent conditions here, looks like more frozen type thamany thought.<br />

<br /><br /><br

I agree

[nzucker]

Yeah but that's business as usual on the coastal plain... there are a lot of areas that usually have seen something of significance by now. For one, the Lake Effect regions have seen nothing and they usually get at least 1-2 events on the Tug before Thanksgiving (though there is one event that will take place this weekend). Most of northern New England usually has snow on the ground in some capacity and we are bare. Sure, we've seen a bunch of trace-1.5" events, but usually by now we've had at least one 3-6 incher. There's 1" of snow at the Mount Mansfield snow stake (3,900ft) right now when the 50-year mean is 12" right now.

I know some of you guys have some fetish with Zucker being right (lol, not directed at you Ray) but he has been steadfast warm and that seems to be working for him right now. I'm not jumping off any bridge or tipping a chair over, just pointing out that while its too early to say he's right... its definitely too early to say he's wrong.

Whether people want to admit it or not, the month of November has trended fairly warm and snowless after a frigid start. The first seven days were brutally cold but now BTV is +0.7F and BOS is +0.4F for the monthly anomaly. Middlebury hasn't really seen any significant snowfall, the lakes have had nothing, Upstate NY has seen little; it's starting to get late for these places, especially when you consider they're probably going to see all rain from the December 2nd event. They may cash in on December 6th but that would definitely be behind schedule.

I honestly don't go over to the general Weather Forecasting and Discussion forum anymore but I have heard he can have at it with some of the Mets over there. But in general, I do sense that some on here don't have a problem with his forecast, but more his delivery of such information... there's a fine line between confident vs. cocky. I just don't like when people rip into his forecast because its warm and goes against what they want to happen; until we get a sustained period of colder than normal, his forecast is going to be correct unfortunately.

First of all, I was not the typical arrogant Middlebury student who wants to be a financial mogul on Wall Street.

Second of all, yes I do sometimes argue with the mets about ENSO, winter forecasting, etc, but I see nothing wrong with it. I am always respectful in my arguments, and debate only strengthens the board by forcing the best meteorologists to deeply examine their own knowledge and embrace a wide variety of opinions. Obviously I don't know as much as DT, HM, and Wes Junker, but I still feel comfortable discussing things with them and occasionally having a divergent opinion. For example, I was adamant that the La Niña was not weakening, despite the comments by DT and many others (including Sam, wxwatcher) who were basically declaring the event dead. The CPC weeklies dropped a bunch last week with Region 3.4 at -1.5C, and there's been a massive amount of cooling in the last few days in Region 4 and Region 3. I decided to contradict some good meteorologists and forecasters, and it worked out. So what's wrong with that?

Also, I simply told people that the pattern didn't look that great, and it's ended up being crappy so far with short-lived cold shots and lakes cutters. I was always confident in my opinion, but not cocky; I acknowledge that there are some better minds on this forum, but I thought I had researched this regime well and understood the pattern deeply. It's looking pretty good for me at this point since the next snow threat is now after 2 more cutters, on December 6th, and even that event doesn't look super cold.

[Ginx snewx]

Nate, do not know who thought Nov would be anything but normal, well except the adamant Nina guys who thought it should be cold, .nov looks to finish normal after the roller coaster rides of next week. I will put it out simply without a war and peace discourse. The average temps in the four main SNE climo sites will be - 3 or below ending Dec 15 th, snowfall total will exceed 6 inches at all.

Give me some numbers.

[skierinvermont]

"The second storm has basically the same problem: even though there's slightly more cold air on the map, the -PNA pattern is trending stronger as we approach, which means the storm is likely to bomb out too early and change most people to a mix/rain. If I lived in SNE, I'd keep an eye on the December 5th event, but not get too excited about it."

I said in that post that I'd keep an eye on it living in SNE. That means that it could be snow. Never said it was 100% rain but chances aren't that high.

Ginx, I hate to tell you, but so far I've been doing pretty well on this pattern. First it was the Thanksgiving storm that was going to be a hit (result=cutter), then it was the storm after that (looks like pure cutter), then it was the December 5th storm (looks like warm SWFE/cutter). The threats keep getting pushed back, and so do the cold temperatures. We were around -6/-7F departure for the first week of November, and now most stations in the East are significantly above average for the month. The warmth and lack of snow chances has been impressive. Usually the area where I went to school (Middlebury, VT) has had a few minor snows by the end of November/beginning of December. This year, nothing. The torch marches on despite what you say, and the Pacific is calling the shots.

Except you told me that the week of Thanksgiving would be cold before flipping your forecast. Then the reasons you will probably be right about the week following Thansgiving are basically being right for the wrong reasons. You told me on the phone the Baffin Bay block was a lock after Thanksgiving but the models have completely lost it. Your whole argument was that a -PNA/-NAO would be warm... well we will never know since the NAO block will end up in the wrong place. You never predicted that the west based block would fail to materialize as modeled.. so I see this as being a case of being right for the wrong reasons.

We had some impressive cold in Canada, and regardless of the -PNA if we had had strong blocking over Baffin Island as modeled, we would have had cold and snow chances in NE. I don't think anybody thought that cold and snow were a lock considering the Pacific didn't look that great and we were talking D10-15, but show me the same pattern on the models modeled in the 10-15 day range in late November and I still believe it would be an above average chance of snow and cold. Until you can explain the physical reasons why the NAO block didn't happen as modeled.. it's really just a crapshoot.

[CT Rain]

Except you told me that the week of Thanksgiving would be cold before flipping your forecast. Then the reasons you will probably be right about the week following Thansgiving are basically being right for the wrong reasons. You told me on the phone the Baffin Bay block was a lock after Thanksgiving but the models have completely lost it. Your whole argument was that a -PNA/-NAO would be warm... well we will never know since the NAO block will end up in the wrong place. You never predicted that the west based block would fail to materialize as modeled.. so I see this as being a case of being right for the wrong reasons.

We had some impressive cold in Canada, and regardless of the -PNA if we had had strong blocking over Baffin Island as modeled, we would have had cold and snow chances in NE.

You guys fight like me and Kevin!

[ski MRG]

Except you told me that the week of Thanksgiving would be cold before flipping your forecast. Then the reasons you will probably be right about the week following Thansgiving are basically being right for the wrong reasons. You told me on the phone the Baffin Bay block was a lock after Thanksgiving but the models have completely lost it. Your whole argument was that a -PNA/-NAO would be warm... well we will never know since the NAO block will end up in the wrong place. You never predicted that the west based block would fail to materialize as modeled.. so I see this as being a case of being right for the wrong reasons.

We had some impressive cold in Canada, and regardless of the -PNA if we had had strong blocking over Baffin Island as modeled, we would have had cold and snow chances in NE. I don't think anybody thought that cold and snow were a lock considering the Pacific didn't look that great and we were talking D10-15, but show me the same pattern on the models modeled in the 10-15 day range in late November and I still believe it would be an above average chance of snow and cold. Until you can explain the physical reasons why the NAO block didn't happen as modeled.. it's really just a crapshoot.

Nate's setting himself up for a nice big slice of humble pie. There will be many that will be happy to serve it up.

[Ginx snewx]

You guys fight like me and Kevin!

Except they use War and Peace posts you and Blizz use George of the Jungle.

[skierinvermont]

Nate's setting himself up for a nice big slice of humble pie. There will be many that will be happy to serve it up.

Thing is this is never black and white so you can usually claim to be "right" if you want to esp. if you are making multiple forecasts. I think the best mets make a conscious effort to keep it honest, unlike JB and some others. You can serve the pie but not everybody wants to eat it

[ineedsnow]

18z gfs has snow on december 5th what a surprise.

[skierinvermont]

Yeah I'm not sure the obsession. I know a few got excited about T-day, but I never did. I do admit the pattern looks to have delayed my thinking by about 4-5 days...however, I am not arrogant enough or skilled enough to think I can hit a pattern that precisely. I may still be off with my new thinking.

I'll say it again...hopefully not on deaf ears this time:

A -PNA/-EPO/-NAO pattern is going give us a good chance at our first snow event, but that doesn't guarantee it has to work out.

First snow event does not have to equal a 12-20" blizzard either. Some also are failing to distinguish this concept.

but but there is not enough snow in the interior to prevent a cutter,, the pacific destroys the atlantic

[ski MRG]

Thing is this is never black and white so you can usually claim to be "right" if you want to esp. if you are making multiple forecasts. I think the best mets make a conscious effort to keep it honest, unlike JB and some others. You can serve the pie but not everybody wants to eat it

I really have to look no farther than our own SNE thread for examples of honesty in forecasting. Scott and Will do a very good job of illuminating the varied outcomes that could come from a particular set up. When they make a forecast they explain their thought process very well. If they bust (which is rare) they are quick to own it. I have never seen either boast about a correct forecast/outlook. Yup. big ol' slice of humble waiting to be served.

[nzucker]

Except you told me that the week of Thanksgiving would be cold before flipping your forecast. Then the reasons you will probably be right about the week following Thansgiving are basically being right for the wrong reasons. You told me on the phone the Baffin Bay block was a lock after Thanksgiving but the models have completely lost it. Your whole argument was that a -PNA/-NAO would be warm... well we will never know since the NAO block will end up in the wrong place. You never predicted that the west based block would fail to materialize as modeled.. so I see this as being a case of being right for the wrong reasons.

We had some impressive cold in Canada, and regardless of the -PNA if we had had strong blocking over Baffin Island as modeled, we would have had cold and snow chances in NE. I don't think anybody thought that cold and snow were a lock considering the Pacific didn't look that great and we were talking D10-15, but show me the same pattern on the models modeled in the 10-15 day range in late November and I still believe it would be an above average chance of snow and cold. Until you can explain the physical reasons why the NAO block didn't happen as modeled.. it's really just a crapshoot.

I never flipped my forecast. It is going to be pretty cold around Thanksgiving as everyone imagined. We had snow/sleet today in NYC metro, most places got down in the 20s last night, and it is supposed to be 30s for highs Saturday and low 40s Sunday. My forecast wasn't really about the temperature regime but more about snowfall chances and the longevity of the cold. I thought it would be more of a cutter pattern with decent cold fronts following each storm, but not a true longevity of the cold. This has turned out to be the truth in a La Niña pattern, not a surprise.

The models didn't lose the NAO block at all. Here's tomorrow's height anomalies from Raleigh...looks like a Baffin Island/Greenland block to me:

The block was a lock; it just didn't retrograde as much as some thought, and the 50/50 low isn't as stable. To say my forecast didn't happen when we have +420 heights over Baffin Island would be a joke, dude. You are pathetic and I am sick of you arguing with me just for your own ego. It is all a product of your low self-confidence and low self-esteem that you have to do this. The -PNA/-NAO pattern is happening, and it is not working that favorably for SNE. I predicted the Pacific would be too strong, and it is.

[nzucker]

We had some impressive cold in Canada, and regardless of the -PNA if we had had strong blocking over Baffin Island as modeled, we would have had cold and snow chances in NE. I don't think anybody thought that cold and snow were a lock considering the Pacific didn't look that great and we were talking D10-15, but show me the same pattern on the models modeled in the 10-15 day range in late November and I still believe it would be an above average chance of snow and cold. Until you can explain the physical reasons why the NAO block didn't happen as modeled.. it's really just a crapshoot.

Where is the cold in Canada for the next storm, which is the one most of us were focusing on (reasonable people admitting that the Thanksgiving storm was probably going to be rain, mostly just due to climo)?

Here is Day 4 and 5 on Raleigh, 850 mb T anomalies:

Where is the cold damming signal over Quebec and Ontario to lock in the snow for SNE?

I sure don't see it, because the whole Pacific pattern is pushing the PV into Asia, and the 50/50 low is not locked in. I was specifically talking about the PV position and its migration to Asia in many of my long-term forecasts, and you can see the massive cold anomalies over central Asia with a pipeline into Europe. Also, the NAO is so massive it looks like we're having a variant of the "maritime air problem" we encountered last year.

[weatherwiz]

People are upset with Nate b/c he was delaying any snowfall potential and how dare he do that to people in SNE. What he has been saying about the Pacific dominating the Atlantic is totally correct...until we see any cooperation from the Atlantic it's not going to be pretty for us, we may get lucky once or twice.

Everyone gets so obsessive over the NAO here, every single winter when the models start showing their massive NAO blocks everyone always seems to fall for them and say it;'s coming and coming and the models keep delaying it and delaying it until it either does happen (although not to the extreme it was modeled) or it basically never does.

Not sure why many don't realize our pattern is generally determined by the Pacific, especially when the Pacific signal is quite strong. We are downstream from the Pacific, which is why there is a strong signal from it. Just ask guys like HM, VAwxman, Gibbs, Chuck, etc...they will all say it's the Pacific that has the final say when the Pacific is leading the way.

[ski MRG]

People are upset with Nate b/c he was delaying any snowfall potential and how dare he do that to people in SNE. What he has been saying about the Pacific dominating the Atlantic is totally correct...until we see any cooperation from the Atlantic it's not going to be pretty for us, we may get lucky once or twice.

Everyone gets so obsessive over the NAO here, every single winter when the models start showing their massive NAO blocks everyone always seems to fall for them and say it;'s coming and coming and the models keep delaying it and delaying it until it either does happen (although not to the extreme it was modeled) or it basically never does.

Not sure why many don't realize our pattern is generally determined by the Pacific, especially when the Pacific signal is quite strong. We are downstream from the Pacific, which is why there is a strong signal from it. Just ask guys like HM, VAwxman, Gibbs, Chuck, etc...they will all say it's the Pacific that has the final say when the Pacific is leading the way.

It's so cute when you kids with all the answers tell us where it's at.lol

[nzucker]

People are upset with Nate b/c he was delaying any snowfall potential and how dare he do that to people in SNE. What he has been saying about the Pacific dominating the Atlantic is totally correct...until we see any cooperation from the Atlantic it's not going to be pretty for us, we may get lucky once or twice.

Everyone gets so obsessive over the NAO here, every single winter when the models start showing their massive NAO blocks everyone always seems to fall for them and say it;'s coming and coming and the models keep delaying it and delaying it until it either does happen (although not to the extreme it was modeled) or it basically never does.

Not sure why many don't realize our pattern is generally determined by the Pacific, especially when the Pacific signal is quite strong. We are downstream from the Pacific, which is why there is a strong signal from it. Just ask guys like HM, VAwxman, Gibbs, Chuck, etc...they will all say it's the Pacific that has the final say when the Pacific is leading the way.

Yeah, people are getting way too caught up in what the Atlantic is showing and just ignoring the -PNA, placement of the PV, the cold air source over Canada...all things associated mostly with the Pacific pattern and not the Atlantic. Let's face it, the NAO has been negative for the last 9 months, in many cases significantly so, and yet temperatures have been near record high levels in this period. The NAO certainly has more influence in winter, but we are still in the early stages of the game where the Pacific is king. People also must realize that climatology doesn't support snowfall for most of SNE in a mediocre pattern in late November or the first days of December. Average highs for most places are still around 40F, which is too warm for snow in many cases if there isn't an arctic feed coming off a favorable Pacific pattern. We'll see what happens in the next few weeks as winter builds in, but as I've said many times, I never bet on a good pattern when the Pacific is rapidly cooling. I also rarely bet the Atlantic against the Pacific, as that's just ignoring the fact that we're downstream of the Pacific and it is a much larger basin with a greater influence on global patterns. A massive -PNA and GoA Low can easily win the battle over a -NAO and 50/50 Low.

People here aren't really criticizing me for my arrogance; they're criticizing me for saying what they don't want to hear. So far, what they don't want to hear has been happening.

[ski MRG]

Yeah, people are getting way too caught up in what the Atlantic is showing and just ignoring the -PNA, placement of the PV, the cold air source over Canada...all things associated mostly with the Pacific pattern and not the Atlantic. Let's face it, the NAO has been negative for the last 9 months, in many cases significantly so, and yet temperatures have been near record high levels in this period. The NAO certainly has more influence in winter, but we are still in the early stages of the game where the Pacific is king. People also must realize that climatology doesn't support snowfall for most of SNE in a mediocre pattern in late November or the first days of December. Average highs for most places are still around 40F, which is too warm for snow in many cases if there isn't an arctic feed coming off a favorable Pacific pattern. We'll see what happens in the next few weeks as winter builds in, but as I've said many times, I never bet on a good pattern when the Pacific is rapidly cooling. I also rarely bet the Atlantic against the Pacific, as that's just ignoring the fact that we're downstream of the Pacific and it is a much larger basin with a greater influence on global patterns. A massive -PNA and GoA Low can easily win the battle over a -NAO and 50/50 Low.

Yet we're under a WWA for your warm rainstorm.

People here aren't really criticizing me for my arrogance; they're criticizing me for saying what they don't want to hear. So far, what they don't want to hear has been happening.

[nzucker]

Pete, you live at 1500' in the Berkshires. No one is saying you can't get a mix-->rain scenario from any of these storms. You're probably going to see frozen precipitation in 90% of events from Thanksgiving to St. Patty's Day due to your unique microclimate. I'm just saying that these storms are mostly way too warm for SNE. I think the 12/2 cutter might even be all rain for you except for some light snow on the backside with upslope conditions.

[ORH_wxman]

People are upset with Nate b/c he was delaying any snowfall potential and how dare he do that to people in SNE. What he has been saying about the Pacific dominating the Atlantic is totally correct...until we see any cooperation from the Atlantic it's not going to be pretty for us, we may get lucky once or twice.

Everyone gets so obsessive over the NAO here, every single winter when the models start showing their massive NAO blocks everyone always seems to fall for them and say it;'s coming and coming and the models keep delaying it and delaying it until it either does happen (although not to the extreme it was modeled) or it basically never does.

Not sure why many don't realize our pattern is generally determined by the Pacific, especially when the Pacific signal is quite strong. We are downstream from the Pacific, which is why there is a strong signal from it. Just ask guys like HM, VAwxman, Gibbs, Chuck, etc...they will all say it's the Pacific that has the final say when the Pacific is leading the way.

No offense wiz, but you really don't know what you are talking about here. I'm not sure why I have to keep coming up with examples and physical explanations for why a -EPO/-PNA/-NAO pattern is good for snow here.

You can believe what you want, but I can tell you that your reasoning makes very little sense to me.

I don't have time to respond to everything right now, but I'll be on later.

[Ginx snewx]

People are upset with Nate b/c he was delaying any snowfall potential and how dare he do that to people in SNE. What he has been saying about the Pacific dominating the Atlantic is totally correct...until we see any cooperation from the Atlantic it's not going to be pretty for us, we may get lucky once or twice.

Everyone gets so obsessive over the NAO here, every single winter when the models start showing their massive NAO blocks everyone always seems to fall for them and say it;'s coming and coming and the models keep delaying it and delaying it until it either does happen (although not to the extreme it was modeled) or it basically never does.

Not sure why many don't realize our pattern is generally determined by the Pacific, especially when the Pacific signal is quite strong. We are downstream from the Pacific, which is why there is a strong signal from it. Just ask guys like HM, VAwxman, Gibbs, Chuck, etc...they will all say it's the Pacific that has the final say when the Pacific is leading the way.

I am still looking for anyone who is upset?.. So you are saying that we do not get good snows during a raging PAC jet?, hmmmmmm

[Ginx snewx]

No offense wiz, but you really don't know what you are talking about here. I'm not sure why I have to keep coming up with examples and physical explanations for why a -EPO/-PNA/-NAO pattern is good for snow here.

You can believe what you want, but I can tell you that your reasoning makes very little sense to me.

I don't have time to respond to everything right now, but I'll be on later.

Missed this before I posted but excellent post. Absolutes killed the cat.

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah, people are getting way too caught up in what the Atlantic is showing and just ignoring the -PNA, placement of the PV, the cold air source over Canada...all things associated mostly with the Pacific pattern and not the Atlantic. Let's face it, the NAO has been negative for the last 9 months, in many cases significantly so, and yet temperatures have been near record high levels in this period. The NAO certainly has more influence in winter, but we are still in the early stages of the game where the Pacific is king. People also must realize that climatology doesn't support snowfall for most of SNE in a mediocre pattern in late November or the first days of December. Average highs for most places are still around 40F, which is too warm for snow in many cases if there isn't an arctic feed coming off a favorable Pacific pattern. We'll see what happens in the next few weeks as winter builds in, but as I've said many times, I never bet on a good pattern when the Pacific is rapidly cooling. I also rarely bet the Atlantic against the Pacific, as that's just ignoring the fact that we're downstream of the Pacific and it is a much larger basin with a greater influence on global patterns. A massive -PNA and GoA Low can easily win the battle over a -NAO and 50/50 Low.

People here aren't really criticizing me for my arrogance; they're criticizing me for saying what they don't want to hear. So far, what they don't want to hear has been happening.

Let's face it a neg nao in the spring and summer fall develops a totally different pattern then winter. Waiting for your Dec 1to 15 th numbers

[Ginx snewx]

Pete, you live at 1500' in the Berkshires. No one is saying you can't get a mix-->rain scenario from any of these storms. You're probably going to see frozen precipitation in 90% of events from Thanksgiving to St. Patty's Day due to your unique microclimate. I'm just saying that these storms are mostly way too warm for SNE. I think the 12/2 cutter might even be all rain for you except for some light snow on the backside with upslope conditions.

Very easy call not any revelations in that forecast.

[nzucker]

No offense wiz, but you really don't know what you are talking about here. I'm not sure why I have to keep coming up with examples and physical explanations for why a -EPO/-PNA/-NAO pattern is good for snow here.

You can believe what you want, but I can tell you that your reasoning makes very little sense to me.

I don't have time to respond to everything right now, but I'll be on later.

Typhoon Tip seems to agree that the NAO isn't putting up much of a fight against the strong Pacific signal. He wrote:

"The NAO is negative and tasty and equally so failing to mean much for snow threats thus far - yuck. Compounding, recent CPC derivatives try to elevated the index some 2SD going into December. Typically for large scale snow events we want a variable NAO. When the block locks in a persistent negative NAO that correlates better for the M/A proper, while a lot of other folks across the eastern conus get screwed. If the value is negative but rising there is a weak argument for an Archembaultian type deal in there, but the PAN really needs to cooperate ...which, It's not...at least not recently."

Also, you have to realize Will that we aren't dealing with any old -PNA here; we've got a very extreme example of this pattern that's capable of bringing -30F temperatures to Montana and 2.5" of snow to Seattle before December 1st. This is an unfavorable Pacific on steroids, and it's happening early in the season when we can least afford it. A few weeks from now, SNE would probably do better in this pattern. The main point of my argument was that people were wishing for snow in a regime that did not support it, especially so early in the winter season. I never said that a mild -PNA with an overwhelming -NAO couldn't be favorable for New England snowfall events in mid-January. In some ways, we're talking past each other here.

[nzucker]

Let's face it a neg nao in the spring and summer fall develops a totally different pattern then winter. Waiting for your Dec 1to 15 th numbers

What stations am I forecasting for?