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Pattern Changing: Early December threats?

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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"The second storm has basically the same problem: even though there's slightly more cold air on the map, the -PNA pattern is trending stronger as we approach, which means the storm is likely to bomb out too early and change most people to a mix/rain. If I lived in SNE, I'd keep an eye on the December 5th event, but not get too excited about it."

I said in that post that I'd keep an eye on it living in SNE. That means that it could be snow. Never said it was 100% rain but chances aren't that high.

Ginx, I hate to tell you, but so far I've been doing pretty well on this pattern. First it was the Thanksgiving storm that was going to be a hit (result=cutter), then it was the storm after that (looks like pure cutter), then it was the December 5th storm (looks like warm SWFE/cutter). The threats keep getting pushed back, and so do the cold temperatures. We were around -6/-7F departure for the first week of November, and now most stations in the East are significantly above average for the month. The warmth and lack of snow chances has been impressive. Usually the area where I went to school (Middlebury, VT) has had a few minor snows by the end of November/beginning of December. This year, nothing. The torch marches on despite what you say, and the Pacific is calling the shots.

We haven't had a snow event by tday.....who would have thought.

How do you do it?

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weathafella

weathafella

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<br /><br />

I don't get all the angst.....we knew all along the character of the snowfalls that were likely to predominate this winter....but you grab a good coastal or two to go along with it and its still a good winter.<br />

People get so wrapped up in this and loose a sense of reality....its tday not easter.<br />

<br /><br /><br />

There's a reason I don't take things too seriously b4 mid December. It's a one word analysis. Climatology. Beautiful sunny warm day again in Los Cabos. Steve would love the fishing but I'm more the exploring type.

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...crazy that it's ripping snow in PA right now, and this won't translate much to us back home. I may be a moron, but I'm sticking with MRG, winter WILL come.... I made an offerring to Ullr this morning, and I'm being richly rewarded at the moment. I fear that the snow that I'm currently enjoying will stay down here, and the mid-atlantic will rejoice again while we weep.

Absolutely wll not happen.

But I do find it a tad humurous, in a sadistic sort of way, that Earthlight in Jersey saw some snow today and it will be 100% rain here.

MA beat me to flakes....continuation of last winter....hey 2010 is almost over. :lol:

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There's a reason I don't take things too seriously b4 mid December. It's a one word analysis. Climatology. Beautiful sunny warm day again in Los Cabos. Steve would love the fishing but I'm more the exploring type.

Exactly......we have people jumping from rafters, tipping chairs and tub socks tapping himself on the back 3 times a day....winter has yet to start.

Something is seriously amiss when I'm a voice of reason.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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We haven't had a snow event by tday.....who would have thought.

How do you do it?

Yeah I'm not sure the obsession. I know a few got excited about T-day, but I never did. I do admit the pattern looks to have delayed my thinking by about 4-5 days...however, I am not arrogant enough or skilled enough to think I can hit a pattern that precisely. I may still be off with my new thinking.

I'll say it again...hopefully not on deaf ears this time:

A -PNA/-EPO/-NAO pattern is going give us a good chance at our first snow event, but that doesn't guarantee it has to work out.

First snow event does not have to equal a 12-20" blizzard either. Some also are failing to distinguish this concept.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Absolutely wll not happen.

But I do find it a tad humurous, in a sadistic sort of way, that Earthlight in Jersey saw some snow today and it will be 100% rain here.

MA beat me to flakes....continuation of last winter....hey 2010 is almost over. :lol:

Well at least the circumstances are much different...lol. No KU going south this time, just overrunning precip moving east.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Yeah I'm not sure the obsession. I know a few got excited about T-day, but I never did. I do admit the pattern looks to have delayed my thinking by about 4-5 days...however, I am not arrogant enough or skilled enough to think I can hit a pattern that precisely. I may still be off with my new thinking.

I'll say it again...hopefully not on deaf ears this time:

A -PNA/-EPO/-NAO pattern is going give us a good chance at our first snow event, but that doesn't guarantee it has to work out.

First snow event does not have to equal a 12-20" blizzard either. Some also are failing to distinguish this concept.

Well said, but it's gotten exhausting to repeat. I guess people will believe what they want to believe.

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Yeah I'm not sure the obsession. I know a few got excited about T-day, but I never did. I do admit the pattern looks to have delayed my thinking by about 4-5 days...however, I am not arrogant enough or skilled enough to think I can hit a pattern that precisely. I may still be off with my new thinking.

I'll say it again...hopefully not on deaf ears this time:

A -PNA/-EPO/-NAO pattern is going give us a good chance at our first snow event, but that doesn't guarantee it has to work out.

First snow event does not have to equal a 12-20" blizzard either. Some also are failing to distinguish this concept.

Right.....NBD.

Dec 5 is the first potential that I've even acknowledged, but adhering to climo doesn't warrant a back pat.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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<br /><br /><br />

Lol...somehow I suspect the 2 inches from a fluke that was in a small area of se sne was not what u had in mind..

Jerry change RTE uncheck it in your settings, gets rid of the br symbols. Enjoy the weather sounds awesome, whales and all. Yea I would die for some fishing Cabo style.

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tombo82685

tombo82685

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Looks like a swfe on the euro. I'm snowing while the paint is getting torn off Kevin's house at hr 240. Eventually, rain.

granted the euro is 240 hrs out, but it lost the -epo look, has a pos pna though. For that day 9-10 storm we really need a 50/50 low, atleast down here. Long range does have a nice -nao decently west based to start then back to the east alittle.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

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Lol...somehow I suspect the 2 inches from a fluke that was in a small area of se sne was not what u had in mind..

Umm, we had plowable snow that day too. As did Tolland down in CT and where Ginx is. It wasn't confined to a small SE are of SNE. Just didn't happen in Boston.lol

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weathafella

weathafella

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<br /><br />

<br />

<br />

Umm, we had plowable snow that day too. As did Tolland down in CT and where Ginx is. It wasn't confined to a small SE are of SNE. Just didn't happen in Boston.lol<br />

<br /><br /><br />

True. Southern areas and your place where it snows 364 days a yr.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Absolutely wll not happen.

But I do find it a tad humurous, in a sadistic sort of way, that Earthlight in Jersey saw some snow today and it will be 100% rain here.

MA beat me to flakes....continuation of last winter....hey 2010 is almost over. :lol:

You haven't seen flakes yet? Not even a 5 minute flurry?

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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We haven't had a snow event by tday.....who would have thought.

How do you do it?

Yeah but that's business as usual on the coastal plain... there are a lot of areas that usually have seen something of significance by now. For one, the Lake Effect regions have seen nothing and they usually get at least 1-2 events on the Tug before Thanksgiving (though there is one event that will take place this weekend). Most of northern New England usually has snow on the ground in some capacity and we are bare. Sure, we've seen a bunch of trace-1.5" events, but usually by now we've had at least one 3-6 incher. There's 1" of snow at the Mount Mansfield snow stake (3,900ft) right now when the 50-year mean is 12" right now.

I know some of you guys have some fetish with Zucker being right (lol, not directed at you Ray) but he has been steadfast warm and that seems to be working for him right now. I'm not jumping off any bridge or tipping a chair over, just pointing out that while its too early to say he's right... its definitely too early to say he's wrong.

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