ski MRG Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Not really...I had 70" at my house last year which is more than most of SNE. I also live at 350' in a heavily wooded area. Highly anomolous, what's your average? 35-40" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Well the reason it was showing the cutter was because the closed low retrograded so far you got this mammoth trough that dug in the central Plains. Looked way too extreme but that's what they were doing to get it. Yeah but that idea just didn't seem logical based on the monster block..unless it cut up into the Dakotas or something. Wiz and Zuckerman bought it hook, line and sinker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Yeah but that idea just didn't seem logical based on the monster block..unless it cut up into the Dakotas or something. Wiz and Zuckerman bought it hook, line and sinker how much snow are you predicting for BDL and TOL this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 how much snow are you predicting for BDL and TOL this year? My initial thoughts were below avg in my 1st call back in Sept..but I think things globally look better than I thought they would at this juncture. BDL 49 TOL 62 I also think we're gonna see quite a few icing events this year just like 2007/08 Probably alot of 2-5/3-6 inch events that turn to ice while they stay all snow to our north and maybe one significant all zr storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 My initial thoughts were below avg in my 1st call back in Sept..but I think things globally look better than I thought they would at this juncture. BDL 49 TOL 62 I also think we're gonna see quite a few icing events this year just like 2007/08 Probably alot of 2-5/3-6 inch events that turn to ice while they stay all snow to our north and maybe one significant all zr storm I had 35" for BDL... I'll say 45" for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I had 35" for BDL... I'll say 45" for you. Well then that would be an awful awful winter.. 15-17 below my avg? I hope you're wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Well then that would be an awful awful winter.. 15-17 below my avg? I hope you're wrong What did you have last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 What did you have last winter? W/o lookng..I think 58.3 edit or was it 56.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Just a question. Did the euro ensembles show what the op was showing? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Just a question. Did the euro ensembles show what the op was showing? Thanks The ensembles had the idea of something brewing at d10 as well. Both were not far apart for being 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 Didn't comment on them since they just continue the same theme we've already preached n this thread, but the 18z GFS ensembles still showing the huge blocking pattern...but I also wanted to comment on the ridging that extends basically north of Bering straight over from Katchatka. Euro ensembles actually showed this more pronounced ridging too, but I seemed to notice it more on the GFS ensembles at 18z.I think this is why the Euro and GFS ens are showing some reload of cold air into Canada in the latter frames of their runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Some monster solutions again on the 18z runs. Hopefully some people can take the good with the bad, because I have a feeling Logan 11 may be standing naked in his field, while I'm watching a 38F rain fall. Hopefully this happens only once...and preferably none. Folks should try to accept it now, and prevent any meltdowns later. That said, I'll take this pattern for sure. I feel pretty good at some point, I'll get in on it. Hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Some monster solutions again on the 18z runs. Hopefully some people can take the good with the bad, because I have a feeling Logan 11 may be standing naked in his field, while I'm watching a 38F rain fall. Hopefully this happens only once...and preferable none. Folks should try to accept it now, and prevent any meltdowns later. That said, I'll take this pattern for sure. I feel pretty good at some point, I'll get in on it. Hopefully. What so remarkable with the 18z ensemble mean is that even the 384 hour forecast has huge negative height anomalies over virtually the entire CONUS. To see a signal this strong and not more muted for a 15 day forecast is pretty amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I'm quite content with the look of the pattern going forward........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Currier and Ives Dec this year?? With no disaster Grinch storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Currier and Ives Dec this year?? With no disaster Grinch storm Hope not.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 What so remarkable with the 18z ensemble mean is that even the 384 hour forecast has huge negative height anomalies over virtually the entire CONUS. To see a signal this strong and not more muted for a 15 day forecast is pretty amazing. Yeah man, certainly makes me happy to see it. In fact, it's following the euro weeklies pretty well. I just saw the newest weeklies. They continue with a -nao through the 20th. They also feature the Kamchatka ridge, with anomalies slowing shifting se. The weeklies do shift the nao block to more of an east based block at the end, but I'm impressed with the longevity modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 Yeah man, certainly makes me happy to see it. In fact, it's following the euro weeklies pretty well. I just saw the newest weeklies. They continue with a -nao through the 20th. They also feature the Kamchatka ridge, with anomalies slowing shifting se. The weeklies do shift the nao block to more of an east based block at the end, but I'm impressed with the longevity modeled. Here's the GFS ensemble analogs at D11 rolled forward another 5 days (so that puts us around Dec 6th) Take with a grain of salt gven the time range but it shows how the cross polar flow could be there once again as we go down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Yeah man, certainly makes me happy to see it. In fact, it's following the euro weeklies pretty well. I just saw the newest weeklies. They continue with a -nao through the 20th. They also feature the Kamchatka ridge, with anomalies slowing shifting se. The weeklies do shift the nao block to more of an east based block at the end, but I'm impressed with the longevity modeled. I like my forecast for a colder than normal December Some signs the MJO may emerge from the spiral of death into a P8/P1/P2 kinda deal in the first week of December plus the stratospheric warming event triggered by the mountain torque in east Asia that HM was discussing a couple days ago disrupting the PV. Definitely a lot of signs pointing to a continuation of the mega -NAO block and a cold stretch for most of us. I think we will snap back to reality by the end of the month and early January and it could be real ugly but lets enjoy the next month because I think we will have some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Here's the GFS ensemble analogs at D11 rolled forward another 5 days (so that puts us around Dec 6th) Take with a grain of salt gven the time range but it shows how the cross polar flow could be there once again as we go down the road. Yeah look at that ridging into AK. That sure would help with the flow, although I think the ball gets rolling for cross polar flow, prior to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 Lol yeah....that is impressive how long the weeklies keep the NAO negative and also also migrate the big Kamchatka positive anomalies ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Interesting that the Euro weeklies are so insistent on keeping the NAO for so long. Gotta think it will break down sooner than that lol. I think between day 10-15 we start seeing the PV tighten back up and our sweet blocking going away. Who knows what we'll find leftover in the Pac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I think we need to start thinking beyond 12/5 what mechanism is going to help keep the -NAO in place and not just start rotting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 I think we need to start thinking beyond 12/5 what mechanism is going to help keep the -NAO in place and not just start rotting. Well if the MJO wants to rot in the circle of death, what is there it kick it out and not just keep dominating the pattern? I suppose something on the PAC side could change it, but with a circle of death, what is going to change significantly on the PAC side? If we keep high latitude blocking near Kamchatka to Bering Sea, it might take awhile. I do think eventually it will happen, but will it happen December 11th, December 18th, or December 27th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Well if the MJO wants to rot in the circle of death, what is there it kick it out and not just keep dominating the pattern? I suppose something on the PAC side could change it, but with a circle of death, what is going to change significantly on the PAC side? If we keep high latitude blocking near Kamchatka to Bering Sea, it might take awhile. I do think eventually it will happen, but will it happen December 11th, December 18th, or December 27th? Well I think the reorganization/re-strengthening of the polar vortex over the North Pole will start screwing with it some and promote less high latitude. You can see how disrupted the PV is becoming over the next 10 days http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/diag.php?alert=1&lng=eng allowing the MONSTER -NAO to go nuts. Probably see something upstream to start messing things up... not sure when that will be though. I'd say it's more likely earlier than later in December, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Well if the MJO wants to rot in the circle of death, what is there it kick it out and not just keep dominating the pattern? I suppose something on the PAC side could change it, but with a circle of death, what is going to change significantly on the PAC side? If we keep high latitude blocking near Kamchatka to Bering Sea, it might take awhile. I do think eventually it will happen, but will it happen December 11th, December 18th, or December 27th? A weak MJO signal doesn't mean we can't see big changes in the N Pac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Some monster solutions again on the 18z runs. Hopefully some people can take the good with the bad, because I have a feeling Logan 11 may be standing naked in his field, while I'm watching a 38F rain fall. Hopefully this happens only once...and preferably none. Folks should try to accept it now, and prevent any meltdowns later. That said, I'll take this pattern for sure. I feel pretty good at some point, I'll get in on it. Hopefully. I won't and am not going to even try; full scale meltdown if that happens again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I won't and am not going to even try; full scale meltdown if that happens again. If you get rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 A weak MJO signal doesn't mean we can't see big changes in the N Pac No it doesn't, but the N PAC is really blocked up too...so I'm not sure how easy it is to dislodge those dual blocks (Kamchatka and NAO). I'm certainly not an expert on that stuff though. For all I know we could see a raging PAC firehose jet by the 10th. The only thing of substance I can really say is probably that it will be hard to dislodge a blocked stable pattern and usually takes longer than models want to change it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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