Pattern Changing: Early December threats?

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah I mean, it does have that overrunning look to it with a big high to the north, but it very well could go overhead or just to the west. we just don't know. It definitely has a better chance as compared to the storm coming next week, so give it a shot. I could see the warmfront getting to a position from TOL-WST, while Moosup and ORH...points northeast have frozen.

LOL we rip dendrites while he gets pelted up to the windowsill. Think his last three meltdowns were bad? The no connectivity at work, somebody stealing his ID and the cold falling apart were classic Kev.

[ORH_wxman]

That's really confusing. Why did they do this?? To better align with the PNA?? I think the correlations also use this new method too. They should just use one index and that's it.

Yeah agreed...it does make for confusion. But that's why I like to look at the maps...if you just look at the number and don't verify it with the maps, then all sorts of problems can arise with your thinking.

The EP/NP (also called EP/NH I think sometimes) was like the PNA...positive was good, and negative was usually bad. But for some reason they flipped the sign when they did the newer EPO index.

Anyway's, since the signs are reversed...reverse the correlation on this map for the EPO....you can clearly see how much it affects sfc temps in the northern US

[CoastalWx]

Yeah agreed...it does make for confusion. But that's why I like to look at the maps...if you just look at the number and don't verify it with the maps, then all sorts of problems can arise with your thinking.

The EP/NP (also called EP/NH I think sometimes) was like the PNA...positive was good, and negative was usually bad. But for some reason they flipped the sign when they did the newer EPO index.

Anyway's, since the signs are reversed...reverse the correlation on this map for the EPO....you can clearly see how much it affects sfc temps in the northern US

Would you say the -epo is probably more important than the nao in terms of getting cold into here? This time of year (especially for my area) I'd rather have that. More often than not, it has benefited me in the past.

I'm not big with numbers either. Numbers may give a quick and dirty idea as to whats going on, but I can tell a lot more just by looking at the pattern.

[weatherwiz]

Where are you getting those numbers from? If its the esrl data, I believe they have them all reversed because they are using old EP/NP values to substitute for the EPO....EPO has the opposite sign of the EP/NP. Those maps I showed have an extreme positive EPO, no ifs, ands, or buts....that's about as bad as it gets for cold in the CONUS.

We talked about it all autumn....we didn't want a big vortex over AK. Esp Bering straight.

It is esrl data:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/epo.data

Well now that this is clarified where do I get actual correct data? Or do I basically just have to reverse the signs on the data listed above?

[Typhoon Tip]

HAPPY THANKS GIGGEDY

Well, that was a truly frustrating last two cycles of the operational GFS - meanwhile, the ECM has been sucking lemons for days ... Ironically, their latter middle range depictions have not been in very good agreement in recent times, meanwhile both screwing storm and snow enthusiasts in their own unique respective ways. I find that almost amusing. It's like some message is being handed down by the snow god that reads something along the lines of one way or the other you're getting ignored because I don't like you and am trying to engineer your misery.

Anyway, I think collectively folks should get their heads around the notion that "meaningful" snow (as in the kind that winterizes and stays) is just not in the cards for the foreseeable future, period. The upshot of taking that defensive posture is that should some permutation emerge the snaps this crap than in the meantime you've spared yourself a lot of consternation and anguish.

Frustrating GFS: Here is the deal. The last two cycles have really brought a more westerly based -NAO block. At first guess (and you'd be quite correct!) you'd think that is a good thing. However, lube up the cosmic dildo because the model refuses to use that to promote a cold system for our area. It instead moves storm systems west/over our latitude - a circumstance that is much less correlated, yet the model seemingly defies physics multiple times.... System after system instead turns left, climbing the western wall of the -NAO ridging near Greenland giving us entry mix to rain scenarios repeatedly within a narrow precision of potential to do so that just happens to our lat/lon like a lightning rod on a P3 scouting mission.

Now ... this "could" mean southwesterly snow type events as we triple point up underneath subsequent backside cool downs - but that is really a conceptional forecast, not deterministic. It could also mean rain --> cold --> rain --> cold ... which is pretty much what the operational GFS is after across these runs.

The other thing I am noticing is that the GFS has been rushing things a lot beyond about D4... The other models are all slower with features embedded in the flow. That is problematic in determining what the pattern will do out in time, because obviously the translation of thermodynamics through the larger synoptic domain is going to have a transitive effect - really from the western Pacific all the way to western Europe - in where major positive and negative height nodes are built and/or carved out. Spreading this type of bias throughout the 21 ensemble members of the GFS suite makes teleconnector modalities and modes uncertain. This may be why the NAO was 2 to almost 3 weeks premature to arrive in the EOFs and operational runs dating back to first week of October. This may also explain why the PNA was forecast to neutralize erroneously... Btw, heh, last night's PNA calculation from CPC now fail that neutralization, bringing it instead to about -.5SD before descending yet again in the first week of December. (Psst - not good; don't tell anyone). Interestingly, the CDC values do not 'quite' reflect that. Theirs continue to indicate a modest positive value ending D13 - eh, so close though that it probably doesn't ring in the flow above background noise. One thing that is also important is that the CPC and CDC have differing methods for their calculations of the teleconnectors; they both derive the character of the field using Empirical Orthogonal Funcitons but the former employs the mid level geopotential anomaly distribution, whereas the latter uses lower tropospheric flux anomalies. You'd think that these would be inextricably linked via conservation of mass (build heights = level flow moving away from axis of building heights) ; yet there are times often enough when the respective agencies derive disparate values. Perhaps there is time-lags that need be applied?

Enters the real bad omen in this and why I suggest walking away from this interest lest you allow it to hold you captive ...eh, hm, is because the NAO is now forecast to rise significantly during that same time. We then end up with a -.5 or so NAO together with a -2SD PNA right around Dec 3. I can't get my imagination around any scenario being born out of that that would fit with the collective desires of these threads to be harshly honest. Obviously it would foolish and absurd to completely close the door on any possibility rearing head during that type of teleconnector layout, it's just that ...oh say 9 times out of ten you're screwed. What is funny about that is that just 5 days ago their was, for a about a 6 hour period, a time when the operational ECM and GFS were both indicating a monster Nor'easter replete with interior huge snow collapsing toward the coast, wind...tides....girls actually finding that idiot poster that goes by the alias "Typhoon Tip" attractive, mass hysteria; And, doing so when? On December 3rd. It's an interesting 5 day boat trip across the seas of uncertainty, to think back along that time and how the depiction has ranged.

Then, I walked out of my door this morning into the ambiance of 27F chill, dead calm, and slate gray overrunning induce cirrostrata and just almost wished for an instant that I did not know the forecast. Because any farmer worth a salt would be button down the barn to bring livestock in out of the snow storm given that morning. By the way, off all the weather folk lore did you guys know that "Red Sky at Morning, Sailors Take Warning; Red Sky at Night, Sailors Delight", is the only one that carries any statistical proof of being veracious?

Let's see who knows why: Go

[weatherwiz]

Great post and quite entertaining as well

[Damage In Tolland]

LOL we rip dendrites while he gets pelted up to the windowsill. Think his last three meltdowns were bad? The no connectivity at work, somebody stealing his ID and the cold falling apart were classic Kev.

There is not a doubt in the world this year that I see more snowfall than you. None at all. You are too close to the coast which is screwjob city this year

[CoastalWx]

LOL, nice John.

I do think the forecast for the nao rise may be a little ambitious, but even so...it doesn't look all that bad. If we can keep this type of pattern extending later into December, I think it would be much more promising. Time will tell, but for now we watch and observe.

[Damage In Tolland]

HAPPY THANKS GIGGEDY

Well, that was a truly frustrating last two cycles of the operational GFS - meanwhile, the ECM has been sucking lemons for days ... Ironically, their latter middle range depictions have not been in very good agreement in recent times, meanwhile both screwing storm and snow enthusiasts in their own unique respective ways. I find that almost amusing. It's like some message is being handed down by the snow god that reads something along the lines of one way or the other you're getting ignored because I don't like you and am trying to engineer your misery.

Anyway, I think collectively folks should get their heads around the notion that "meaningful" snow (as in the kind that winterizes and stays) is just not in the cards for the foreseeable future, period. The upshot of taking that defensive posture is that should some permutation emerge the snaps this crap than in the meantime you've spared yourself a lot of consternation and anguish.

Frustrating GFS: Here is the deal. The last two cycles have really brought a more westerly based -NAO block. At first guess (and you'd be quite correct!) you'd think that is a good thing. However, lube up the cosmic dildo because the model refuses to use that to promote a cold system for our area. It instead moves storm systems west/over our latitude - a circumstance that is much less correlated, yet the model seemingly defies physics multiple times.... System after system instead turns left, climbing the western wall of the -NAO ridging near Greenland giving us entry mix to rain scenarios repeatedly within a narrow precision of potential to do so that just happens to our lat/lon like a lightning rod on a P3 scouting mission.

Now ... this "could" mean southwesterly snow type events as we triple point up underneath subsequent backside cool downs - but that is really a conceptional forecast, not deterministic. It could also mean rain --> cold --> rain --> cold ... which is pretty much what the operational GFS is after across these runs.

The other thing I am noticing is that the GFS has been rushing things a lot beyond about D4... The other models are all slower with features embedded in the flow. That is problematic in determining what the pattern will do out in time, because obviously the translation of thermodynamics through the larger synoptic domain is going to have a transitive effect - really from the western Pacific all the way to western Europe - in where major positive and negative height nodes are built and/or carved out. Spreading this type of bias throughout the 21 ensemble members of the GFS suite makes teleconnector modalities and modes uncertain. This may be why the NAO was 2 to almost 3 weeks premature to arrive in the EOFs and operational runs dating back to first week of October. This may also explain why the PNA was forecast to neutralize erroneously... Btw, heh, last night's PNA calculation from CPC now fail that neutralization, bringing it instead to about -.5SD before descending yet again in the first week of December. (Psst - not good; don't tell anyone). Interestingly, the CDC values do not 'quite' reflect that. Theirs continue to indicate a modest positive value ending D13 - eh, so close though that it probably doesn't ring in the flow above background noise. One thing that is also important is that the CPC and CDC have differing methods for their calculations of the teleconnectors; they both derive the character of the field using Empirical Orthogonal Funcitons but the former employs the mid level geopotential anomaly distribution, whereas the latter uses lower tropospheric flux anomalies. You'd think that these would be inextricably linked via conservation of mass (build heights = level flow moving away from axis of building heights) ; yet there are times often enough when the respective agencies derive disparate values. Perhaps there is time-lags that need be applied?

Enters the real bad omen in this and why I suggest walking away from this interest lest you allow it to hold you captive ...eh, hm, is because the NAO is now forecast to rise significantly during that same time. We then end up with a -.5 or so NAO together with a -2SD PNA right around Dec 3. I can't get my imagination around any scenario being born out of that that would fit with the collective desires of these threads to be harshly honest. Obviously it would foolish and absurd to completely close the door on any possibility rearing head during that type of teleconnector layout, it's just that ...oh say 9 times out of ten you're screwed. What is funny about that is that just 5 days ago their was, for a about a 6 hour period, a time when the operational ECM and GFS were both indicating a monster Nor'easter replete with interior huge snow collapsing toward the coast, wind...tides....girls actually finding that idiot poster that goes by the alias "Typhoon Tip" attractive, mass hysteria; And, doing so when? On December 3rd. It's an interesting 5 day boat trip across the seas of uncertainty, to think back along that time and how the depiction has ranged.

Then, I walked out of my door this morning into the ambiance of 27F chill, dead calm, and slate gray overrunning induce cirrostrata and just almost wished for an instant that I did not know the forecast. Because any farmer worth a salt would be button down the barn to bring livestock in out of the snow storm given that morning. By the way, off all the weather folk lore did you guys know that "Red Sky at Morning, Sailors Take Warning; Red Sky at Night, Sailors Delight", is the only one that carries any statistical proof of being veracious?

Let's see who knows why: Go

[Typhoon Tip]

Once again ...leave to Kev' to miss the point -

Dude, don't hang your self over this - there's room to laugh in all this.

ha ha --> Kevin

[Typhoon Tip]

Predictions:

12z GFS will =

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s70kgI4M5Jw

12z ECM will =

[ORH_wxman]

LOL, Tip is jumping from the rafters already. Nice writeup though.

I wouldn't expect an interesting coastal solution either out of this. Its a gradient pattern so it favors the type of snow events that are mostly overrunning or may have sleet/ZR contamination. That's what we are hoping for. Though we may try and pop a more favorable setup for a miller B or clipper/redeveloper in the Dec 9-12 time range.

[ORH_wxman]

Would you say the -epo is probably more important than the nao in terms of getting cold into here? This time of year (especially for my area) I'd rather have that. More often than not, it has benefited me in the past.

I'm not big with numbers either. Numbers may give a quick and dirty idea as to whats going on, but I can tell a lot more just by looking at the pattern.

EPO seems to have a slightly higher correlation than the NAO over the whole winter here, but in December the NAO correlation is as high if not higher...maybe a wavelength thing. But either way, with both the EPO and NAO going negative, you'd like to think the cold will win out. The PNA correlation here is almost dead zero (even in December)....so you can't normally blame a big -PNA for ruining a -EPO/-NAO setup unlike further south....in fact, that setup has produced many a great winter in New England.

But each pattern has its own little nuances, and I'm sure this one will too.

[CoastalWx]

EPO seems to have a slightly higher correlation than the NAO over the whole winter here, but in December the NAO correlation is as high if not higher...maybe a wavelength thing. But either way, with both the EPO and NAO going negative, you'd like to think the cold will win out. The PNA correlation here is almost dead zero (even in December)....so you can't normally blame a big -PNA for ruining a -EPO/-NAO setup unlike further south....in fact, that setup has produced many a great winter in New England.

But each pattern has its own little nuances, and I'm sure this one will too.

Yeah I agree. I'm just going by memory here, but -epo dumps usually translate to high pressure branching in from the lakes, filtering in cold arctic air with minimal marine intrusion. I know in 2007, it was a little different with high pressure moving east, but we still had one hell of a cold airmass in place. Obviously both working in tandem would be awesome, but I think early on in the season I'd rather have an arctic delivery from a -epo, but from later December on...a -nao would do just fine.

[snowNH]

LOL, Tip is jumping from the rafters already. Nice writeup though.

I wouldn't expect an interesting coastal solution either out of this. Its a gradient pattern so it favors the type of snow events that are mostly overrunning or may have sleet/ZR contamination. That's what we are hoping for. Though we may try and pop a more favorable setup for a miller B or clipper/redeveloper in the Dec 9-12 time range.

And so it begins...

We go from "T-Day could get interesting" to "A couple days after T-Day could get interesting" to "Dec 1-3 is def. gonna be a snow/ice event here" to "The Dec 9-12 range is our next big shot" (Which is 15 days away lol)

I can already tell this winter is going to be great....

[ORH_wxman]

And so it begins...

We go from "T-Day could get interesting" to "A couple days after T-Day could get interesting" to "Dec 1-3 is def. gonna be a snow/ice event here" to "The Dec 9-12 range is our next big shot" (Which is 15 days away lol)

I can already tell this winter is going to be great....

Another rafter hanger arrives.

[CoastalWx]

And so it begins...

We go from "T-Day could get interesting" to "A couple days after T-Day could get interesting" to "Dec 1-3 is def. gonna be a snow/ice event here" to "The Dec 9-12 range is our next big shot" (Which is 15 days away lol)

I can already tell this winter is going to be great....

C'mon man. Take the rope off the neck and go have a drink and some Turkey.

[ORH_wxman]

C'mon man. Take the rope off the neck and go have a drink and some Turkey.

Havent you heard?...if we don't get a snowstorm today (which was always a total long shot), and it doesn't snow before December 5th, then winter is over.

[dryslot]

And so it begins...

We go from "T-Day could get interesting" to "A couple days after T-Day could get interesting" to "Dec 1-3 is def. gonna be a snow/ice event here" to "The Dec 9-12 range is our next big shot" (Which is 15 days away lol)

I can already tell this winter is going to be great....

Its not that bad things will work themselves out over the next few weeks

[Professional Lurker]

...crazy that it's ripping snow in PA right now, and this won't translate much to us back home. I may be a moron, but I'm sticking with MRG, winter WILL come.... I made an offerring to Ullr this morning, and I'm being richly rewarded at the moment. I fear that the snow that I'm currently enjoying will stay down here, and the mid-atlantic will rejoice again while we weep.

[CoastalWx]

Havent you heard?...if we don't get a snowstorm today (which was always a total long shot), and it doesn't snow before December 5th, then winter is over.

I didn't get the memo.

[CT Rain]

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Will be working tonight

[New England Storm]

Hey winter will be fun either way. We will see snow at some point and, a lot of warm windy rainstorms will probaly ruin the snow pack from time to time.

[ChrisM]

And so it begins...

We go from "T-Day could get interesting" to "A couple days after T-Day could get interesting" to "Dec 1-3 is def. gonna be a snow/ice event here" to "The Dec 9-12 range is our next big shot" (Which is 15 days away lol)

I can already tell this winter is going to be great....

about a week ago I said "Isn't anyone worried that the cold shots keep getting pushed back a week? First it was November 20th, then Thanksgiving what's it going to be now?"

well everyone told me I was stupid, and look what's happening now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

about a week ago I said "Isn't anyone worried that the cold shots keep getting pushed back a week? First it was November 20th, then Thanksgiving what's it going to be now?"

well everyone told me I was stupid, and look what's happening now.

Unsure as to why it should come as a shock to anyone that a major pattern change is being delayed in modeling.....it shouldn't be very disconcerting either.

[40/70 Benchmark]

HAPPY THANKS GIGGEDY

Well, that was a truly frustrating last two cycles of the operational GFS - meanwhile, the ECM has been sucking lemons for days ... Ironically, their latter middle range depictions have not been in very good agreement in recent times, meanwhile both screwing storm and snow enthusiasts in their own unique respective ways. I find that almost amusing. It's like some message is being handed down by the snow god that reads something along the lines of one way or the other you're getting ignored because I don't like you and am trying to engineer your misery.

Anyway, I think collectively folks should get their heads around the notion that "meaningful" snow (as in the kind that winterizes and stays) is just not in the cards for the foreseeable future, period. The upshot of taking that defensive posture is that should some permutation emerge the snaps this crap than in the meantime you've spared yourself a lot of consternation and anguish.

Frustrating GFS: Here is the deal. The last two cycles have really brought a more westerly based -NAO block. At first guess (and you'd be quite correct!) you'd think that is a good thing. However, lube up the cosmic dildo because the model refuses to use that to promote a cold system for our area. It instead moves storm systems west/over our latitude - a circumstance that is much less correlated, yet the model seemingly defies physics multiple times.... System after system instead turns left, climbing the western wall of the -NAO ridging near Greenland giving us entry mix to rain scenarios repeatedly within a narrow precision of potential to do so that just happens to our lat/lon like a lightning rod on a P3 scouting mission.

Now ... this "could" mean southwesterly snow type events as we triple point up underneath subsequent backside cool downs - but that is really a conceptional forecast, not deterministic. It could also mean rain --> cold --> rain --> cold ... which is pretty much what the operational GFS is after across these runs.

The other thing I am noticing is that the GFS has been rushing things a lot beyond about D4... The other models are all slower with features embedded in the flow. That is problematic in determining what the pattern will do out in time, because obviously the translation of thermodynamics through the larger synoptic domain is going to have a transitive effect - really from the western Pacific all the way to western Europe - in where major positive and negative height nodes are built and/or carved out. Spreading this type of bias throughout the 21 ensemble members of the GFS suite makes teleconnector modalities and modes uncertain. This may be why the NAO was 2 to almost 3 weeks premature to arrive in the EOFs and operational runs dating back to first week of October. This may also explain why the PNA was forecast to neutralize erroneously... Btw, heh, last night's PNA calculation from CPC now fail that neutralization, bringing it instead to about -.5SD before descending yet again in the first week of December. (Psst - not good; don't tell anyone). Interestingly, the CDC values do not 'quite' reflect that. Theirs continue to indicate a modest positive value ending D13 - eh, so close though that it probably doesn't ring in the flow above background noise. One thing that is also important is that the CPC and CDC have differing methods for their calculations of the teleconnectors; they both derive the character of the field using Empirical Orthogonal Funcitons but the former employs the mid level geopotential anomaly distribution, whereas the latter uses lower tropospheric flux anomalies. You'd think that these would be inextricably linked via conservation of mass (build heights = level flow moving away from axis of building heights) ; yet there are times often enough when the respective agencies derive disparate values. Perhaps there is time-lags that need be applied?

Enters the real bad omen in this and why I suggest walking away from this interest lest you allow it to hold you captive ...eh, hm, is because the NAO is now forecast to rise significantly during that same time. We then end up with a -.5 or so NAO together with a -2SD PNA right around Dec 3. I can't get my imagination around any scenario being born out of that that would fit with the collective desires of these threads to be harshly honest. Obviously it would foolish and absurd to completely close the door on any possibility rearing head during that type of teleconnector layout, it's just that ...oh say 9 times out of ten you're screwed. What is funny about that is that just 5 days ago their was, for a about a 6 hour period, a time when the operational ECM and GFS were both indicating a monster Nor'easter replete with interior huge snow collapsing toward the coast, wind...tides....girls actually finding that idiot poster that goes by the alias "Typhoon Tip" attractive, mass hysteria; And, doing so when? On December 3rd. It's an interesting 5 day boat trip across the seas of uncertainty, to think back along that time and how the depiction has ranged.

Then, I walked out of my door this morning into the ambiance of 27F chill, dead calm, and slate gray overrunning induce cirrostrata and just almost wished for an instant that I did not know the forecast. Because any farmer worth a salt would be button down the barn to bring livestock in out of the snow storm given that morning. By the way, off all the weather folk lore did you guys know that "Red Sky at Morning, Sailors Take Warning; Red Sky at Night, Sailors Delight", is the only one that carries any statistical proof of being veracious?

Let's see who knows why: Go

:lmao:

Dear lord did I missed you; been such a long time since we've seen the chair tipped over with such humurous ferver.

[40/70 Benchmark]

There is not a doubt in the world this year that I see more snowfall than you. None at all. You are too close to the coast which is screwjob city this year

I'll bet he beats you.

[40/70 Benchmark]

:lol:

[40/70 Benchmark]

Havent you heard?...if we don't get a snowstorm today (which was always a total long shot), and it doesn't snow before December 5th, then winter is over.

I don't get all the angst.....we knew all along the character of the snowfalls that were likely to predominate this winter....but you grab a good coastal or two to go along with it and its still a good winter.

People get so wrapped up in this and loose a sense of reality....its tday not easter.

[nzucker]

LOL etc etc etc things look good to me, has that 94 low level cold, overrunning look to me. I was speaking from Dec 3 on. He flat out said there was zero chances except for the mountains. Again I was speaking using generalizations of the look to Ens.

"The second storm has basically the same problem: even though there's slightly more cold air on the map, the -PNA pattern is trending stronger as we approach, which means the storm is likely to bomb out too early and change most people to a mix/rain. If I lived in SNE, I'd keep an eye on the December 5th event, but not get too excited about it."

I said in that post that I'd keep an eye on it living in SNE. That means that it could be snow. Never said it was 100% rain but chances aren't that high.

Ginx, I hate to tell you, but so far I've been doing pretty well on this pattern. First it was the Thanksgiving storm that was going to be a hit (result=cutter), then it was the storm after that (looks like pure cutter), then it was the December 5th storm (looks like warm SWFE/cutter). The threats keep getting pushed back, and so do the cold temperatures. We were around -6/-7F departure for the first week of November, and now most stations in the East are significantly above average for the month. The warmth and lack of snow chances has been impressive. Usually the area where I went to school (Middlebury, VT) has had a few minor snows by the end of November/beginning of December. This year, nothing. The torch marches on despite what you say, and the Pacific is calling the shots.