HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Steve (and others), I apologize for my stupid posts today. Shutting up now other than observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Yea, even if it ends up trivial, it would still supply the novelty of the first snow of the season. That storm is now looking like more of a 12/6-7 event, and hopefully we can get something out of it. Even if it ends up cutting west, a bit of snow before the rain would be a nice change of pace... recently its been ZR/IP before rain (Friday morning my forecast has another .1-.2" of ice/ZR before rain), maybe by then we'll have enough cold in here to start as snow. I still think the primary may end up tracking too far NW. Remember, in these Nina seasons (like 07-08) the primary low tends to be stronger and hold on longer than the models predict. I know Ginx will disagree saying quicker re-development and more snow, but it does seem to happen quite often with lakes cutters in a Nina pattern the primaries hold on longer, with re-development of a secondary further northeast than depicted on the progs. Remember 2007-2008 always thinking we might luck out with redeveloping secondaries bombing us with snow... and the models would always tease with Tip writing paragraphs of how a CCB will destroy eastern New England... but as the event was upon us they all turned into only SWFE before dryslotting, as northern ME got pummeled by a secondary that developed too late for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 I agree that it is our first valid shot at something... Even if it doesn't exactly pan out that period still looks quite active and at least the pattern will give us potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 And the Euro ensembles say...?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 And the Euro ensembles say...?? Better looking than the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Euro ensembles still want to hang troughing out west, so that makes the storm around 12/5 a toss up. It looks like redevelopment overhead, but it looks like there is a lot of spread. It is a little stronger with the nao block, which is trying to fight lowering heights in the EPO region and out west. Overall not much change from 00z imo, a little lower with heights along the Pacific coast, a little higher with heights over the Davis Straits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Euro ensembles still want to hang troughing out west, so that makes the storm around 12/5 a toss up. It looks like redevelopment overhead, but it looks like there is a lot of spread. It is a little stronger with the nao block, which is trying to fight lowering heights in the EPO region and out west. Overall not much change from 00z imo, a little lower with heights along the Pacific coast, a little higher with heights over the Davis Straits. i wonder what nzuckers thoughts are about this pacific vs atlantic battle .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 what are the oddz we awaken Jerry's elephant i.e THe stale marine air that intrudes and overwhelms the maritimes in a few more weeks like last years blocking ended up doing. Is this a serious concern. Scott or will is this something that is somewhat of a concern ? or /likely? over the next month given a look at the long term models/ weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 what are the oddz we awaken Jerry's elephant i.e THe stale marine air that intrudes and overwhelms the maritimes in a few more weeks like last years blocking ended up doing. Is this a serious concern. Scott or will is this something that is somewhat of a concern ? or /likely? over the next month given a look at the long term models/ weeklies? Eh, I don't think it's likely, although an extreme west based -nao could do the trick. I'm not worried about that right now...the Pacific is what worries me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Eh, I don't think it's likely, although an extreme west based -nao could do the trick. I'm not worried about that right now...the Pacific is what worries me. thanks for the reply scott.....so an extreme west based -nao "prolonged" is the usual culprit . The pacific is a raging beast of furry that promises to bury the cascades and northern sierra with meters of snow....and here i am believing that we will have very little wiggle room needing these cutters to stop for the love of god. when heights in the SW (4 corners) don't drop every 3 days then i will breathe a sigh of relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 How's the 18Z GFS looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 That storm is now looking like more of a 12/6-7 event, and hopefully we can get something out of it. Even if it ends up cutting west, a bit of snow before the rain would be a nice change of pace... recently its been ZR/IP before rain (Friday morning my forecast has another .1-.2" of ice/ZR before rain), maybe by then we'll have enough cold in here to start as snow. I still think the primary may end up tracking too far NW. Remember, in these Nina seasons (like 07-08) the primary low tends to be stronger and hold on longer than the models predict. I know Ginx will disagree saying quicker re-development and more snow, but it does seem to happen quite often with lakes cutters in a Nina pattern the primaries hold on longer, with re-development of a secondary further northeast than depicted on the progs. Remember 2007-2008 always thinking we might luck out with redeveloping secondaries bombing us with snow... and the models would always tease with Tip writing paragraphs of how a CCB will destroy eastern New England... but as the event was upon us they all turned into only SWFE before dryslotting, as northern ME got pummeled by a secondary that developed too late for most of us. Actually I agree, but let's add a very low neg NAO to the equation with a negative EPO, cutters redevellop more readily. That being said I would be content with 07/08 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 How's the 18Z GFS looking? no changes in the short to medium term. shows 12/2 low going from NW south carolina up thru philly over to NYC then up to burlington vT then wAY BACK to central/ NW canada lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Steve (and others), I apologize for my stupid posts today. Shutting up now other than observations .???? Check your PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 thanks for the reply scott.....so an extreme west based -nao "prolonged" is the usual culprit . The pacific is a raging beast of furry that promises to bury the cascades and northern sierra with meters of snow....and here i am believing that we will have very little wiggle room needing these cutters to stop for the love of god. when heights in the SW (4 corners) don't drop every 3 days then i will breathe a sigh of relief. Nah, don't sweat the cutters right now. We could easily flip the script in a couple of weeks, like 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Nah, don't sweat the cutters right now. We could easily flip the script in a couple of weeks, like 2007. The year of the smallest highest accumulating dendrites ever. Like someone was pouring sugar out of a bag. The more I read of 70 the more I remember , had Quincy bus experience that year, also the year I started skiing in earnest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 I'm not even sure its on the tracks right now. But I think Pete never left the snow train... he's just sitting there waiting for it to gain some momentum... just like those lonely boxcars you see sitting in rail yards for weeks on end. More like Linus waiting for the GREAT PUMPKIN.lol Actually, I see real potential coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 If at least 1 ensemble member ends the world there is always hope .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 If at least 1 ensemble member ends the world there is always hope .... LOL it could happen tomorrow movie could too. Look back in Eastern for the Dec 05 thread , Tday week one Ens member was calling for Armageddoon the one in a million happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Well that sure was an interesting op run of the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Well that sure was an interesting op run of the gfs. All hope is not lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Two cutters on the 0z GFS...not much snow for anyone except perhaps the VT/ME mountains on the backside of these systems. Awful run until like 348 hours when it rips down a 1048mb high despite a terrible Pacific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Sometimes it's hard for people to see the trees through the forest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Two cutters on the 0z GFS...not much snow for anyone except perhaps the VT/ME mountains on the backside of these systems. Awful run until like 348 hours when it rips down a 1048mb high despite a terrible Pacific I will take my chances fook the Pacific and the boat it rides in on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Sometimes it's hard for people to see the trees through the forest. Dude there's like no serious snow threats until the 300+ hr juncture on the GFS, which everyone knows is useless. Tuesday's storm will certainly be rain with temperatures spiking into the 50s; there could be a period of light snow on the back end of the developing secondary for higher elevations of NNE, but even that doesn't seem certain at this point. The second storm has basically the same problem: even though there's slightly more cold air on the map, the -PNA pattern is trending stronger as we approach, which means the storm is likely to bomb out too early and change most people to a mix/rain. If I lived in SNE, I'd keep an eye on the December 5th event, but not get too excited about it. There's just no stopping the strong GoA low/Aleutian ridge configuration with a big trough bringing cold and snow to the West with ridging ahead of it. With the Pacific cooling so fast, it makes sense to hammer this pattern for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 December looking better and better loving the ENS looks and analogs. Snowcover looks great. Just enough cold to get us through. Loving it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 December looking better and better loving the ENS looks and analogs. Snowcover looks great. Just enough cold to get us through. Loving it. But, but, NZucker said it will never snow again. How can he be wrong? All hope is lost, or is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Well zucker is right, that 12/5 (as we thought) could very well be a cutter. There is still a ton of energy digging out west. The euro ensembles even hint at that, but again they are vague with a lot of spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 The euro ensembles actually don't look all that bad in the Pacific this go around, which is good, and are a little cooler from 12z....despite the possibility of 12/5 being warm. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 GFS aren't bad either. The euro op would be a big overrunning event esp for the interior up through central New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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