Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,703
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Climax
    Newest Member
    Climax
    Joined

Pattern Changing: Early December threats?

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Well, yesterday and the day before it seemed that the models had tanked (not that I can tell by looking at them...) and now it seems "well, it's not soooo bad..."

What subtle shift happened? 1 model run? 2?

Models eased off of thew GOA trough. That helped with the cold coming into Canada and eventually here. The Canadian and euro op sort of hinted at it coming near the end of the runs, but like I said..it will waffle back and forth a bit. We still have a battle with the Pacific and Atlantic.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

He does find some really neat obscure stuff... Southern RI mud layers showing multiple high intensity landfalling 'canes is a good one.

OT, Jim Cantore is in the house, please stay on topic

You are a school teacher, you teach your kids to talk about someone in the third person when they are in the room?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

Yeah no kidding..lol. I hope nobody is back on the snow train again, because it could easily derail. As usual, we'll probably need to add an extra "step" in the step down process. At least models have weakened the +epo for now. That's a big help in getting cold in here.

not on snow train

in fact i am wishing i didnt get a wa wa pass

as i think we are in for a brutal winter for SNE snowpack wise.....especially south of NNE.

I think wa wa will outdue itself if it can stay skiable from christmas to valentine's day w/o more than ten days being closed due to warm/rains melting alot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

not on snow train

in fact i am wishing i didnt get a wa wa pass

as i think we are in for a brutal winter for SNE snowpack wise.....especially south of NNE.

I think wa wa will outdue itself if it can stay skiable from christmas to valentine's day w/o more than ten days being closed due to warm/rains melting alot.

You're a classic weenie....so unstable. lol

Flip, flop...you have my vote this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

The 61.4" avg over the past 4 yrs is from mby...the 54 year mean is mainly from Reading COOP a few of mine #s intermingled in the later years.

61.4 for last 4 years.....but what about a 50 year average.....seems like 54-57 is a good bet depending on wether you live in SE or NW part of town. but i guess will would have the best knowledge.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

what part of wilmington are you in....S N W ?

also the up and down of my weenism part is not as much as advertised.

for the last month i have been BEARISH on snow fall totals for SNE this year. look at the thread for snow fall accums. This is what i think will happen.

So the wa wa post is pretty much consistent with that.

Getting geeked up for snow potential is what i do it is who i am. I will be geeked up all year for individual storms.......i hope they over-perfrom....i hope they have last second track changes that are favorable to us. And i will post when they occur. This doesn't mean i think they will happen . Just that there is some model support for the idea.

I think when you realize and see my posts from the perspective of a snow lover who also thinks this year will be below average for SNE....you can see that this "dual mandate" is not FACTUALLY at odds with each other . Also i really want to enjoy the slopes this year.....but i think there is gonna be tons of lake's cutters with obviously some snow storms mixed in as climo progesses deeper. I hope i am wrong about that. but i don't think we are that different in what we think will fall in SNE this year are we?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
DomNH

DomNH

Posted
Posted

what part of wilmington are you in....S N W ?

also the up and down of my weenism part is not as much as advertised.

for the last month i have been BEARISH on snow fall totals for SNE this year. look at the thread for snow fall accums. This is what i think will happen.

So the wa wa post is pretty much consistent with that.

Getting geeked up for snow potential is what i do it is who i am. I will be geeked up all year for individual storms.......i hope they over-perfrom....i hope they have last second track changes that are favorable to us. And i will post when they occur. This doesn't mean i think they will happen . Just that there is some model support for the idea.

I think when you realize and see my posts from the perspective of a snow lover who also thinks this year will be below average for SNE....you can see that this "dual mandate" is not FACTUALLY at odds with each other .

So you're a winter weather weenie. Welcome to the club.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

He may be tame regarding his expectations for this winter in its entirety, but he was one of the last of the Mohegans to grasp reality with regard to the impending rain event tmw night...and I suspect that won't be the last time, either. :lol:

it's easy to say big papi will hit poorly in april on april 28.

and not really ray i said last weekend.....15% snow 45 rain 40 nothing.......your confused regarding my wording or just intellectually lenient interpretting them to get a laugh..... there is a significant difference saying there is a chance and hoping that will occur with believing it will.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

it's easy to say big papi will hit poorly in april on april 28.

and not really ray i said last weekend.....15% snow 45 rain 40 nothing.......you confuse me saying there is a chance and hoping that will occur with believing it will.

Anyone on here will tell you that I was adamant that it never had a chance from the start and you fought me tooth and nail until relatively recently....NBD, but it is what it is.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Anyone on here will tell you that I was adamant that it never had a chance from the start and you fought me tooth and nail until relatively recently....NBD, but it is what it is.

Not to be an arsehole but I respect Will and I know you do too, and am going to follow his wishes for not derailing certain threads. JMHO

Link to comment
Share on other sites
cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

Anyone on here will tell you that I was adamant that it never had a chance from the start and you fought me tooth and nail until relatively recently....NBD, but it is what it is.

ray what im saying is that i said (last weekend) there was a 85% chance IMO it was rain or nothng (for friday)

posting absolutes and then getting ONE time right does not validate the absoluteness of your post. I know you don't believe it was zero shot....but that is what you said and in the absense of a % attatched to it. I don't know how you win the argument. not that it is really one anyway LOL.

Let it SNOW!!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

I laid a bet on the table last Thursday that an Advisory wouldn't be needed outside of the Berks and no one would take it....not huge win because I was essentially just playing climo, but lets get the record straight.

ray you said a few things....yes that was one of them and you were right....the reason i didn't bet you was because as i said the odds as i saw them were in your favor. We could save alot of time and energy if you didn't post things like "i said there was NO chance" and it turned out to be a rain storm......as well as realizing we weren't that far apart on what we thought would happen. only difference was that 15% that i thought it would snow...i posted about when models supported it.

and i respect will and the board .....done posting about this....i love ray as a poster and respect him a great deal. Done. sorry for the de -rail.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

ray you said a few things....yes that was one of them and you were right....the reason i didn't bet you was because as i said the odds as i saw them were in your favor. We could save alot of time and energy if you didn't post things like "i said there was NO chance" and it turned out to be a rain storm......as well as realizing we weren't that far apart on what we thought would happen. only difference was that 15% that i thought it would snow...i posted about when models supported it.

and i respect will and the board .....done posting about this....i love ray as a poster and respect him a great deal. Done. sorry for the de -rail.

Yea, I altready started deleting....what I meant was initially you really locked onto that as a winter threat, but you had caught on by last wknd.

Sorry for the trainwreck.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...