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Pattern Changing: Early December threats?


ORH_wxman

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I like these trends, let's keep them going. Good way to start off the holiday weekend. Turkey, football, Euro. The holy trifecta.

Hopefully the euro ensembles hold steady. Some waffling back and forth from run to run will happen, but we don't want to see a big GOA low come back, or NAO block move east and weaken. It's the Pacific that is most concerning. Any subtle change in that, and we go from swfe aloft, to swfe at the surface. I still have my guard up for that until I'm within 7 days or so, but so far...the last 36 hrs have been nice.

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I like these trends, let's keep them going. Good way to start off the holiday weekend. Turkey, football, Euro. The holy trifecta.

trends shmends let me act like ryan.....

sounds like a thread the needle pattern we are hoping for. :whistle:

heavy heavy roll of the dice. . i would put money on heights dropping near the 4 corners as we draw nearer to the period the next trough moves in.

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Yeah secondary goes from NYC to BOS. Looks good for ctrl and NNE.

Good... we need the snow. Ski season started today at Stowe with snowmaking trails only. When I got to the mountain at 5:30am it was 26F outside the office at 1,550ft with a nice 30-40mph breeze... summit weather station was showing 15F gusting to 55mph out of the NW. Brrr it was brutally cold up top today, wind chills below zero all day.

The worst part was there was only a skiff of snow on the ground outside of where snow was made. We really could use some natural.

12z GFS is just pure porn. The upslope that would ensue coupled with the CCB as that thing hits the Maritimes and retrogrades would spell feet of fluff for the northern Greens. I can't even look at that stuff, haha.

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Yeah, well, you have my sympathies if you're a storm enthusiast waiting on runs for entertainment - languish is unfortunately your game while these runs, particularly the operational Euro, continue punch your aspirations in the belly with these dismal depictions.

About the only up-shot about this 12z run is that it has almost no continuity - and from that you can assume equal probability that just about anything will happen between D6-10, and if so ... maybe, just maybe a cold solution will be in there.

End of this run looks like a rapidly collapsing -NAO and a dropping PNA - just quintessentially perfect wrong for snow lovers. Nice :lol:

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They've been cooling at the end for about 2 weeks now. :lol:

Things will get going, but may be awhile.

Yeah no kidding..lol. I hope nobody is back on the snow train again, because it could easily derail. As usual, we'll probably need to add an extra "step" in the step down process. At least models have weakened the +epo for now. That's a big help in getting cold in here.

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Yeah no kidding..lol. I hope nobody is back on the snow train again, because it could easily derail. As usual, we'll probably need to add an extra "step" in the step down process. At least models have weakened the +epo for now. That's a big help in getting cold in here.

Well, you know my thoughts.....March is going to be the lions's share of the winter.....not expecting a ton out of Dec, though I'd wager that it will better Jan and Feb...especially Jan..

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Yeah no kidding..lol. I hope nobody is back on the snow train again, because it could easily derail. As usual, we'll probably need to add an extra "step" in the step down process. At least models have weakened the +epo for now. That's a big help in getting cold in here.

I'm not even sure its on the tracks right now.

But I think Pete never left the snow train... he's just sitting there waiting for it to gain some momentum... just like those lonely boxcars you see sitting in rail yards for weeks on end.

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I'm not even sure its on the tracks right now.

But I think Pete never left the snow train... he's just sitting there waiting for it to gain some momentum... just like those lonely boxcars you see sitting in rail yards for weeks on end.

Pete still has a few crusty patches left from last year in the shaded portions of his mane.

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I'm not even sure its on the tracks right now.

But I think Pete never left the snow train... he's just sitting there waiting for it to gain some momentum... just like those lonely boxcars you see sitting in rail yards for weeks on end.

Well some are quick to jump aboard again, only to jump off. Anytime you have conflicting signals in the oceanic basins, subtle changes will lead to big changes down the road. This is a bad analogy, but it's kind of like tectonic plates that are grinding and pressing on each other. One little weakness or slip, and boom, an earthquake of weather changes.

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Well some are quick to jump aboard again, only to jump off. Anytime you have conflicting signals in the oceanic basins, subtle changes will lead to big changes down the road. This is a bad analogy, but it's kind of like tectonic plates that are grinding and pressing on each other. One little weakness or slip, and boom, an earthquake of weather changes.

Steve is here, and I'm sure he is excited about something...lol

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Well some are quick to jump aboard again, only to jump off. Anytime you have conflicting signals in the oceanic basins, subtle changes will lead to big changes down the road. This is a bad analogy, but it's kind of like tectonic plates that are grinding and pressing on each other. One little weakness or slip, and boom, an earthquake of weather changes.

Well, I'm at the station, but the trains seems to be running a little slow. I think the big Acela Express is scheduled for Dec 5...

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