Pattern Changing: Early December threats?

[dryslot]

Pretty cold run of the gfs op. It shows a classic swfe with snow to rain eventually on 12/5. Hopefully it trends more south.

12/5 has produce some decent storms over the years.............

[free_man]

Pretty cold run of the gfs op. It shows a classic swfe with snow to rain eventually on 12/5. Hopefully it trends more south.

shows more of a miller B,  no?   classic transfer going on.    It might be onto the right idea, at least generally speaking.

[CoastalWx]

shows more of a miller B, no? classic transfer going on. It might be onto the right idea, at least generally speaking.

Yeah secondary goes from NYC to BOS. Looks good for ctrl and NNE.

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z gfs operational looks reasonable through hr 240 IMO.

I agree. The wilds swings seem to be more in check.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Yeah secondary goes from NYC to BOS. Looks good for ctrl and NNE.

Didn't look like a classic Miller B to me or if it was, seemed late blooming.

[CoastalWx]

Didn't look like a classic Miller B to me or if it was, seemed late blooming.

It was technically redeveloping, but it looked more like a classic swfe.

The gfs ensembles are very vague with this low, but all of the sudden pop a secondary east of the BM and move it almost due north.

[dryslot]

Yeah secondary goes from NYC to BOS. Looks good for ctrl and NNE.

A more upbeat atmosphere in here today, I still like the looks of Dec especially if we get some cold in here which is being shown........

[Baroclinic Zone]

It was technically redeveloping, but it looked more like a classic swfe.

The gfs ensembles are very vague with this low, but all of the sudden pop a secondary east of the BM and move it almost due north.

I like that this has shown up now since overnight. Just get us through the 1st of the month and it's game on imo.

[CoastalWx]

I'd still watch for a warmer solution on 12/5. We are still way too far out to lock anything in.

This was a cold run of the ensembles. I think this is the result of better blocking over the Davis Straits now..instead of the EPO region. At one points heights were higher out west, but then the GOA low started coming back at the end of the run. Either way, the trend for ridging in the EPO region helps get the cold into southern Canada which I think is most important. The nao block does the west by trying to force it south into the US. We still have a Pacific vs Atlantic battle, but at least the last 36 hrs have looked better.

[Damage In Tolland]

Pretty cold run of the gfs op. It shows a classic swfe with snow to rain eventually on 12/5. Hopefully it trends more south.

Yeah WE think it will

[CoastalWx]

Yeah WE think it will

WE hope. Still some warm solutions in the ensemble members.

[free_man]

Didn't look like a classic Miller B to me or if it was, seemed late blooming.

Yeah,  I think of a swfe of being something benign, that comes in with overrunning and scoots out.    Not a major phase, development of significant comma-head, etc.    What's modeled on the gfs is that initially,   a swfe,  but definitely has an explosive secondary development.   Would lead me into thinking it's a miller B for NNE but a swfe for SW of there.    

[MaineJayhawk]

Yeah, I think of a swfe of being something benign, that comes in with overrunning and scoots out. Not a major phase, development of significant comma-head, etc. What's modeled on the gfs is that initially, a swfe, but definitely has an explosive secondary development. Would lead me into thinking it's a miller B for NNE but a swfe for SW of there.

I was thinking Miller B too

[CoastalWx]

I was thinking Miller B too

I think the definition is a little subjective, but a Miller-B is usually a redevelopment of low pressure from energy riding along in the northern stream of the jet. We tend to think of these as development off of NC or east of ACY, so a swfe isn't a classic Miller B. You can argue it really isn't a Miller B, since development usually occurs along a triple point of a low, and not a total transformation and development of low pressure along the coast.

[MaineJayhawk]

I think the definition is a little subjective, but a Miller-B is usually a redevelopment of low pressure from energy riding along in the northern stream of the jet. We tend to think of these as development off of NC or east of ACY, so a swfe isn't a classic Miller B. You can argue it really isn't a Miller B, since development usually occurs along a triple point of a low, and not a total transformation and development of low pressure along the coast.

Ok, gotcha. I knew it wasn't the classic look wrt the northern jet. Learned something new, so it has been a good day. To make it a better day, let's get the Euro on board. Hallelujah.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah secondary goes from NYC to BOS. Looks good for ctrl and NNE.

Haven't looked at anything because I was on the road, but I'll wager to say that if there is any semblance of a high, then that redevleopment will trend se a hair.....maybe as far as the cc or through cweat's fanny.

[CoastalWx]

Haven't looked at anything because I was on the road, but I'll wager to say that if there is any sembelance of a high, then that redevleopment will trend se a hair.....maybe as far as the cc or through cweat's fanny.

Yeah Cweat's fanny is a very common area for things to cross over. We'll see what the euro does shortly.

[dryslot]

Haven't looked at anything because I was on the road, but I'll wager to say that if there is any semblance of a high, then that redevleopment will trend se a hair.....maybe as far as the cc or through cweat's fanny.

There is a weak high NW of here 1020mb, That low track is in a perfect spot for here, We would get clocked verbatium, Don't think i care to be in the bullseye this far out.........

[CoastalWx]

There is a weak high NW of here 1020mb, That low track is in a perfect spot for here, We would get clocked verbatium, Don't think i care to be in the bullseye this far out.........

Pretty much anything is on the table at this point. Beware of the Pacific and any subtle changes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

There is a weak high NW of here 1020mb, That low track is in a perfect spot for here, We would get clocked verbatium, Don't think i care to be in the bullseye this far out.........

Probably good enough; we aren't talking about a major adjustment here....just a climo attributed tweak.

[dryslot]

Probably good enough; we aren't talking about a major adjustment here....just a climo attributed tweak.

Would not need more then a couple ticks south for this to be good for a lot of folks up this way.....

[CoastalWx]

Well the euro has a big low in the Plains, but extrapolating out, might be a swfe or something that cuts just to the west. There is a big block to the ne so it is tough to tell, but looks warmer than 00z.

[dryslot]

Pretty much anything is on the table at this point. Beware of the Pacific and any subtle changes.

Just taking what it showed verbatium this run, I take with a grain of salt what any op model shows for storms this far out, Especially what has gone on most of this week with all the guidance, I think we will still see them flop around............

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well the euro has a big low in the Plains, but extrapolating out, might be a swfe or something that cuts just to the west. There is a big block to the ne so it is tough to tell, but looks warmer than 00z.

Thanks.

[CoastalWx]

Just taking what it showed verbatium this run, I take with a grain of salt what any op model shows for storms this far out, Especially what has gone on most of this week with all the guidance, I think we will still see them flop around............

The best you can do is just to keep track of the pattern and watch for trends. That's all.

[dryslot]

Well the euro has a big low in the Plains, but extrapolating out, might be a swfe or something that cuts just to the west. There is a big block to the ne so it is tough to tell, but looks warmer than 00z.

Being right at the end of the run, Its tough to tell if the low moves East or NE.........

[40/70 Benchmark]

The best you can do is just to keep track of the pattern and watch for trends. That's all.

Visibility reduced to 1-2 days in heavy caution and fog.

[dryslot]

The best you can do is just to keep track of the pattern and watch for trends. That's all.

Violently agree

[dryslot]

Visibility limited to 1-2 days with fog and heavy caution.

With a couple of degrees of optimism.....

[CoastalWx]

Being right at the end of the run, Its tough to tell if the low moves East or NE.........

My guess is that it would probably end up moving overhead, based on how it looks at H5, but it's almost impossible to say how a low will move in 1500 miles.