Pattern Changing: Early December threats?

[CoastalWx]

Congrats Phil on the gfs.

[weatherwiz]

WOah

[CoastalWx]

WOah

I'm talking more about hr 348.

[weatherwiz]

Maybe squall line potential on December 1st...that date rings a bell....

12/1/06...which was also a mod/strong Nina.

[weatherwiz]

Depending on how the Euro looks I may make my first ever CONVECTIVE THREAT thread on Americanwx

[ORH_wxman]

GFS ensembles are really hitting the -EPO. Pipeline is open to flood Canada with arctic cold on that setup.

[CoastalWx]

GFS ensembles are really hitting the -EPO. Pipeline is open to flood Canada with arctic cold on that setup.

Yeah that really dumped the cold into Canada big time. It looks like the -EPO shoved all the cold into Canada and shoved the nao block east and/or weakened it, but that may be a good thing, as we don't have any marine contaminated air from the nao block. It's just all polar air dumped from the -epo ridge.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah that really dumped the cold into Canada big time. It looks like the -EPO shoved all the cold into Canada and shoved the nao block east and/or weakened it, but that may be a good thing, as we don't have any marine contaminated air from the nao block. It's just all polar air dumped from the -epo ridge.

Yeah it looks like the NAO slowly weakens post-240h but we are getting blitzed with the -EPO...esp across the northern tier. The ensemble mean has -16C along the US/Canada border around D12-13 which is impressive that far out. The NAO does show a slight kink to the NW in the height field near the end suggesting that some ensemble members are probably retrograding a block to the west. But its overall -NAO signal is not as strong as the Euro ensembles.

[weatherwiz]

I like this, possibly a convection chance on the 1st of the month then much more favorable pattern for cold/snow after the 5th or so.

[ORH_wxman]

And yes, that is an awesome storm on December 8th on the OP GFS.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah it looks like the NAO slowly weakens post-240h but we are getting blitzed with the -EPO...esp across the northern tier. The ensemble mean has -16C along the US/Canada border around D12-13 which is impressive that far out. The NAO does show a slight kink to the NW in the height field near the end suggesting that some ensemble members are probably retrograding a block to the west. But its overall -NAO signal is not as strong as the Euro ensembles.

I don't mind that if we get that dump of polar air, and that little bulge in the ridge over the Davis Straits towards the end of the run to help push some of that cold south. Hopefully the euro op/ensembles continue.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

GFS ensembles are really hitting the -EPO. Pipeline is open to flood Canada with arctic cold on that setup.

At the very least that will ensure a good snow/ice pack across Canada and hopefully NNE and the N. Great Lakes regions which in turn help us.

[weatherwiz]

Since Scott and Will can see the euro before I can post what it shows for December 1st.

Strength of the sfc low, how strong the ridging is out ahead of the system, the dewpoints, 500mb temps, and where the sfc low tracks.

[ORH_wxman]

Since Scott and Will can see the euro before I can post what it shows for December 1st.

Strength of the sfc low, how strong the ridging is out ahead of the system, the dewpoints, 500mb temps, and where the sfc low tracks.

Best chance for a squall line is Dec 1st in the afternoon. Doesn't look amazing this run though...temps only in the 50s.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Since Scott and Will can see the euro before I can post what it shows for December 1st.

Strength of the sfc low, how strong the ridging is out ahead of the system, the dewpoints, 500mb temps, and where the sfc low tracks.

Best chance for a squall line is Dec 1st in the afternoon. Doesn't look amazing this run though...temps only in the 50s.

Ha-ha

[ORH_wxman]

Big -EPO showing up in the long range again. Big gradient setting up with very cold Northern tier.

[weatherwiz]

Best chance for a squall line is Dec 1st in the afternoon. Doesn't look amazing this run though...temps only in the 50s.

That's what it looked like as well leading up to December 1st, 2006. Although it got into the upper 60's/lower 70's that day with mid to upper 60's dews.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Big -EPO showing up in the long range again. Big gradient setting up with very cold Northern tier.

Beautiful.....heading up to NH tmw morning should be a windy drive.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That's what it looked like as well leading up to December 1st, 2006. Although it got into the upper 60's/lower 70's that day with mid to upper 60's dews.

Jesus, give it up; you're like the weenies who were obsessed with the idea that it would snow on tday.

[ORH_wxman]

SWFE written all over Dec 5th if the OP Euro verified.

[40/70 Benchmark]

SWFE written all over Dec 5th if the OP Euro verified.

I think that has a very realistic shot.

[weatherwiz]

Jesus, give it up; you're like the weenies who were obsessed with the idea that it would snow on tday.

These Nina cutters can be pretty fun, although it usually ends up moreso for areas just west of us but I like tracking it and watching it die as it comes this way.

[weatherwiz]

Loving how the pattern looks to shape up right after the cutter on December 1st. After that it's game on!

[ORH_wxman]

I think that has a very realistic shot.

I'm just happy to see it advertising the -EPO again which dumps all that cold into the northern tier. It has a great gradient pattern at D10 with a low entering the OH Valley riding the boundary. Maybe like a 12/13/07 or something.

At any rate, I just want to see the pattern hold firm more or less for the next 48 hours on the models until we can safely get it in range to be confident it occurs. Hopefully along the way we'll keep seeing some threats here and there on the OP runs.

[H2Otown_WX]

Big -EPO showing up in the long range again. Big gradient setting up with very cold Northern tier.

Looks like there's still a hint of a GoA low. If we can get the block a little further east that should really help get those <= -10C 850's in here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm just happy to see it advertising the -EPO again which dumps all that cold into the northern tier. It has a great gradient pattern at D10 with a low entering the OH Valley riding the boundary. Maybe like a 12/13/07 or something.

At any rate, I just want to see the pattern hold firm more or less for the next 48 hours on the models until we can safely get it in range to be confident it occurs. Hopefully along the way we'll keep seeing some threats here and there on the OP runs.

Gridlock storm....Kev jackpotted and the event exceled, despite some putrid snowgrowth.....poured pixie grains.

I had 9".

[H2Otown_WX]

Gridlock storm....Kev jackpotted and the event exceled, despite some putrid snowgrowth.....poured pixie grains.

I had 9".

I had 9.5"

[40/70 Benchmark]

I had 9.5"

Yea, jackpot was south of here, just below the CT\RI borders of MA.....right to the N of the sleet taint.

I had the last laugh that winter.

[H2Otown_WX]

Yea, jackpot was south of here, just below the CT\RI borders of MA.....right to the N of the sleet taint.

I had the last laugh that winter.

Indeed, you more than doubled my pathetic total. Congratulations.

[nzucker]

Looks like there's still a hint of a GoA low. If we can get the block a little further east that should really help get those <= -10C 850's in here.

Yeah there's still hints of a SE ridge with the Pacific set-up, but the airmass is now cold enough that even a cutter would probably produce some snow for SNE. Definitely a decent pattern modeled at Day 10 for people up by Will, but we'll see what it shows a few days from now. The storm this coming Tuesday looked from far out as well with the retrograding NAO and now is going to be a cutter in all probability.