Pattern Changing: Early December threats?

[CoastalWx]

If we can keep this current D9 signal for the next 48 hours without it turning to crap, I think we'll be looking at a potentially fun period starting after Dec 2-3. Obviously no guarantee we still can't get lakes cutters in there, but I think the snow threat would rise substantially in that setup.

Yeah I agree. It's been a stable feature for 18 hours or so, but lets continue this in successive runs. It may fluctuate a little of course, but as long as it continues this going forward, that's a good thing.

[HoarfrostHubb]

If we can keep this current D9 signal for the next 48 hours without it turning to crap, I think we'll be looking at a potentially fun period starting after Dec 2-3. Obviously no guarantee we still can't get lakes cutters in there, but I think the snow threat would rise substantially in that setup.

Waiting for Nate to chime...

[Organizing Low]

lake cutters come in all kinds of varieties, doesnt mean you cant get a great front end dump from a lake cutter, as well as redevlopers/miller B's......lake cutters can be very profitable once you get north of 40-41, especially with a neg NAO/blocky pattern

just need to get the cold here to take advantage, first step is first.....

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I agree. It's been a stable feature for 18 hours or so, but lets continue this in successive runs. It may fluctuate a little of course, but as long as it continues this going forward, that's a good thing.

We're starting to see late Nov/Dec 1970 creep back into the analogs...if you look at the pattern, you can see why.

[alex]

We're starting to see late Nov/Dec 1970 creep back into the analogs...if you look at the pattern, you can see why.

For us ignorant folks... Is that a - yey, 1970 is showing up in the analogs - or a - oh crap, 1970 is showing up in the analogs?

[ORH_wxman]

For us ignorant folks... Is that a - yey, 1970 is showing up in the analogs - or a - oh crap, 1970 is showing up in the analogs?

Well its definitely a yay for NE.

At any rate, you can't really use analogs for snowfall all the time. I can't tell you how many times I've seen a great pattern fail to produce snowfall and we get a big snowfall out of a totally crap pattern. You'd like the odds in your favor, but the weather will do what it wants to do.

[HoarfrostHubb]

hmmmm 1970-1971 141" in Portland???? naaahh, wouldn't want that

[Ginx snewx]

Well its definitely a yay for NE.

At any rate, you can't really use analogs for snowfall all the time. I can't tell you how many times I've seen a great pattern fail to produce snowfall and we get a big snowfall out of a totally crap pattern. You'd like the odds in your favor, but the weather will do what it wants to do.

Must read

http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/099/mwr-099-03-0249.pdf

[dryslot]

hmmmm 1970-1971 141" in Portland???? naaahh, wouldn't want that

Why would i want another 144" like that year..........

[CoastalWx]

Must read

http://docs.lib.noaa...099-03-0249.pdf

Nice, classic gradient right there.

[Organizing Low]

hmmmm 1970-1971 141" in Portland???? naaahh, wouldn't want that

that was the all-time snowiest winter here in montreal and ottawa

[Ginx snewx]

Nice, classic gradient right there.

Now why is this less of an option than the absolutes a lot have posted? If you read the review it shows how Dec started off really crappy then boom.

[Ginx snewx]

Not to dig on Socks but I had to laugh at the map, Hobo Ferry on the normal line.

[alex]

Why would i want another 144" like that year..........

Nice. Should we start a petition? "Hello Ma'am I'm collecting signatures to bring back the winter of 1970..."

[ski MRG]

Today was a good day I see...2010 on borrowed time and ready to transition to fun times.

Feeling OK? The optimistic tone in some of your more recent posts is disconcerting. Wait, I got it, new chick, right ? Bet that's it.

[ski MRG]

36" here Dec 1970 after a shutout in Nov. 119" for the season. Seems like some people are backing off the ledge. I'd almost like to see the models go through the good/bad/good cycle again just to see the trainwreck. Almost.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Up and down ... Up and down

The model merry go round makes ones head spin

[Mr Torchey]

36" here Dec 1970 after a shutout in Nov. 119" for the season. Seems like some people are backing off the ledge. I'd almost like to see the models go through the good/bad/good cycle again just to see the trainwreck. Almost.

Wow epic.

I would have thought the Bills gave you enough bad/bad/bad cycles to last a lifetime Enjoy the flakes and pellets over the holiday Pete, we here down in the tropics will live vicariously through you sir.

Happy tday to you and yours.

[butterfish55]

For us ignorant folks... Is that a - yey, 1970 is showing up in the analogs - or a - oh crap, 1970 is showing up in the analogs?

[

Thank you for asking...definitely lots of us ignorant folks here

[dryslot]

36" here Dec 1970 after a shutout in Nov. 119" for the season. Seems like some people are backing off the ledge. I'd almost like to see the models go through the good/bad/good cycle again just to see the trainwreck. Almost.

I talked about that earlier today about the models having a hard time with the pattern as well as the mets, Glad nobody flushed the toilet because thats where i was told the GFS and Euro ensembles were located this morning........

[HoarfrostHubb]

How does one get the analogs? (one of the ignorant multitudes in Rev Kev's flock)

[ORH_wxman]

How does one get the analogs? (one of the ignorant multitudes in Rev Kev's flock)

You can go here and click on either the GFS ensemble or Canadian ensemble analogs...you can click on the OP runs of the GFS too but they are pretty useless in that time range:

http://www.cpc.noaa....nce.php?dayin=8

The analogs are only as good as the ensemble though. I usually try to cross check the ensembles with the Euro to make sure they agree before I consider talking about the analogs.

In the menu on the left, you can get day 11 analogs too, but the further you go out, obviously the less accurate the ensembles will be. They are usually pretty good at day 8.

[HoarfrostHubb]

You can go here and click on either the GFS ensemble or Canadian ensemble analogs...you can click on the OP runs of the GFS too but they are pretty useless in that time range:

http://www.cpc.noaa....nce.php?dayin=8

The analogs are only as good as the ensemble though. I usually try to cross check the ensembles with the Euro to make sure they agree before I consider talking about the analogs.

In the menu on the left, you can get day 11 analogs too, but the further you go out, obviously the less accurate the ensembles will be. They are usually pretty good at day 8.

Thanks

I will try them out

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

18z GFS and ensemble means are at total different ends of the spectrum. The ensemble means show a west based -NAO, while the GFS operational model shows a +NAO with a low over the southeastern Davis Straits. Totally different patterns. Goes to show you how uncertain this pattern can be with a La Nina ran pacific jet stream.

[cpickett79]

18z GFS and ensemble means are at total different ends of the spectrum. The ensemble means show a west based -NAO, while the GFS operational model shows a +NAO with a low over the southeastern Davis Straits. Totally different patterns. Goes to show you how uncertain this pattern can be with a La Nina ran pacific jet stream.

at this point with models having poor track records .....i would go with will's quasi advice and ride the "met" with a hot hand and that is MR. DT . He says he see us getting some shots from dec 3 onward. seems like the best bet....albeit no gaurantee.

[ORH_wxman]

at this point with models having poor track records .....i would go with will's quasi advice and ride the "met" with a hot hand and that is MR. DT . He says he see us getting some shots from dec 3 onward. seems like the best bet....albeit no gaurantee.

He certainly wasn't as bullish as I was regarding this period. But he did say he could see some snow threats developing for New England.

At any rate, at least there is a period of potential developing a little more confidence on the models after the Nov 30-Dec 1 warmup...I'm glad to see it appear in the past 24 hours and have it be inside of 10 days. Hopefully it sticks.

[CT Rain]

Just caught up on today's model runs and I still think we'll see a potentially active Dec 2-Dec 10 period. -NAO seems to still be locked in place to some extent and we will see some changes on the west coast (-PNA relaxes). I think the general look for the period beyond Dec 1 still looks pretty good for an early snow threat. Temperatures may only wind up near normal with some decent swings from above to below as the storm track adjusts.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

at this point with models having poor track records .....i would go with will's quasi advice and ride the "met" with a hot hand and that is MR. DT . He says he see us getting some shots from dec 3 onward. seems like the best bet....albeit no gaurantee.

Seems most prudent at this time considering the real lack of consistency in the guidance. He certaintly wasn't as bullish as JB has been at least for the 26th through early DEC period. I could see perhaps a snowy end of DEC.

[CT Rain]

any temp predictions for dec 1-10?

Just caught up on today's model runs and I still think we'll see a potentially active Dec 2-Dec 10 period. -NAO seems to still be locked in place to some extent and we will see some changes on the west coast (-PNA relaxes). I think the general look for the period beyond Dec 1 still looks pretty good for an early snow threat. Temperatures may only wind up near normal with some decent swings from above to below as the storm track adjusts.

[cpickett79]

FYI 18z and 0z nam has trended further S with the "bowling ball" feature

Basically it's a big difference with heights BC now sub 5160 DM heights are found N of Route 2/ mass pike

also -12c 850's just N of mass border. COLD!