weatherwiz Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Euro ensembles out to 216h....liking the look. Continues their theme of a -EPO/-PNA/-NAO look beginning to take shape around Dec 2-3. Remember a few nights ago when you made the post of years with a -PNA/-NAO pattern? If you were to throw EPO state into there would it change the results at all as far as years go or anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 I also like how the Davis Strait block shows no signs of leaving. That's encouraging to see as we go out in time. Yeah, if this newer idea is correct, it seems like we are on track similar to what we thought before except we didn't anticipate the Nov 30-Dec 1 warm up...not that that's surprising, as mentioned a bunch of times already, we often see it occur in step downs. It just seems there is one more step than first advertised. Hopefully they have caught onto the pattern around D9...if its right, then its time to rock and roll Dec 3rd onward. But I'm sure there will be more unexpected curve balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Jerrys favorite, Step down pattern it seems as described. I took another peak at the 00z run height difference as compared to 12z yesterday, and the models did trend a little higher with heights near AK and over by Greenland. Today, the models carried similar thinking, with the GFS very aggressive in raising heights. I don't know about being that aggressive, but they were better signs, for now anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The Canadian ensembles also trended a hair cooler after D11 too, likely owing from a strong NAO block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Yeah, if this newer idea is correct, it seems like we are on track similar to what we thought before except we didn't anticipate the Nov 30-Dec 1 warm up...not that that's surprising, as mentioned a bunch of times already, we often see it occur in step downs. It just seems there is one more step than first advertised. Hopefully they have caught onto the pattern around D9...if its right, then its time to rock and roll Dec 3rd onward. But I'm sure there will be more unexpected curve balls. I took another peak at the 00z run height difference as compared to 12z yesterday, and the models did trend a little higher with heights near AK and over by Greenland. Today, the models carried similar thinking, with the GFS very aggressive in raising heights. I don't know about being that aggressive, but they were better signs, for now anyways. Sh it even multiple quote works for me now! Will Scooter. Have to say this . AS YOU THOUGHT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Sh it even multiple quote works for me now! Will Scooter. Have to say this . AS YOU THOUGHT! I'd like to see this hold and continue, but at least it didn't get worse. Not a bad set of runs since last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 18z nam shaping up to take bowling bowl of colder heights this weekend a hundred miles plus further south ....at least thru 78 hours......which extrapolate would lower heights over SNE/CNE significantly ...i.e from 5240at KALB to 5180 could be a trend toward colder weekend.....we shall see. edit sorry wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 I'd like to see this hold and continue, but at least it didn't get worse. Not a bad set of runs since last night. If its correct, then we are better off anyway that it set in 3-5 days later than first thought...certainly allows a little bit of extra climo cooling to take place in our favor...especially for the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike_D Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The Canadian ensembles also trended a hair cooler after D11 too, likely owing from a strong NAO block. Yes I noticed that too. Bad news is the lower heights heading towards the GOA. For the time being though we do get a neutral to slightly +PNA and the cold in the East with the strong NAO block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Has anyone been keeping tabs on the running monthly departures (temps) for the major New England climo sites? I'm curious where we stand when the overnight fropa [probably] will mark the end of 60F for quite some time - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Has anyone been keeping tabs on the running monthly departures (temps) for the major New England climo sites? I'm curious where we stand when the overnight fropa [probably] will mark the end of 60F for quite some time - Coming into today (which will be above avg), November departures were: BOS: -0.2 ORH: +0.8 BDL: +0.8 PVD: +1.2 I'd think we will shave some off those numbers between now and Nov 30th...though it could be pretty warm on the 30th itself, so we'll have to see.Could be a situation where we shave off some departure and then if we torch from a lakes cutter on the 30th, we'll be right back to where we were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 If its correct, then we are better off anyway that it set in 3-5 days later than first thought...certainly allows a little bit of extra climo cooling to take place in our favor...especially for the coastal plain. For my backyard, that's my general thought as well. Obviously, you can rip S+ with a 5,000' isothermal layer, but I would rather see it later, than sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The high temp on the 21st really crashed KBOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Yes I noticed that too. Bad news is the lower heights heading towards the GOA. For the time being though we do get a neutral to slightly +PNA and the cold in the East with the strong NAO block. Welcome aboard, location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike_D Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Welcome aboard, location? Right now Philadelphia...I just am a big fan of this thread...haha. I am moving to NY in a week right near the CT border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The hits just keep on coming So the cold is delayed until sometime in December.....I'm glad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Glad you made it. You were one of the ones I was wondering what happened to. One of Will's spies in Northern ORH Cty How'd you find the new site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 So the cold is delayed until sometime in December.....I'm glad. the snow is. cold could be hear sat nite for a short stay. low 20's also should be mid 20's thanksgivin morn. heck it's gonna be coldish tommorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 So the cold is delayed until sometime in December.....I'm glad. Take a gander into the Red Sox thread. Agreed, unless were going to get decked with snow in November, which isn't very likely why have the cold now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 One thing that encourages me is that the ensembles just sort of shifted into this pattern all of the sudden last night and we are seeing it again today in a slightly stronger form. The switch was inside D10 too, so its not like its horrifically far out. That gives me confidence that they may have caught onto something. Sort of similar to a couple days when they all of the sudden started showing the warmer period at D8-9 (at the time). Now we see this current shift happening at the D9 period. Today was a good day I see...2010 on borrowed time and ready to transition to fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 the snow is. cold could be hear sat nite for a short stay. low 20's also should be mid 20's thanksgivin morn. heck it's gonna be coldish tommorrow I mean in the form of semi stable pattern...not a transient, 1.5 day money shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Take a gander into the Red Sox thread. Agreed, unless were going to get decked with snow in November, which isn't very likely why have the cold now? People commiting suicide over martinez signing somwhere else...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Today was a good day I see...2010 on borrowed time and ready to transition to fun times. Look under the black bear........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Euro ensembles out to 216h....liking the look. Continues their theme of a -EPO/-PNA/-NAO look beginning to take shape around Dec 2-3. neg EPo please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 neg EPo please 18z GFS ensemble mean is really hitting the -EPO as well. NW half of Canada is just frigid. In fact all of Canada is pretty damned cold but its Siberian Express in NW half of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 So the cold is delayed until sometime in December.....I'm glad. Yeah this is certainly better for you guys on the coastal plain... like Will said, let climo cool a bit more before bringing in the below average heights. The longer it is delayed, the less of a chance you have of watching Kev, Will, Mike, and Pete dancing naked in an elevated/interior snow bomb, while it rains to 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 18z GFS ensemble mean is really hitting the -EPO as well. NW half of Canada is just frigid. In fact all of Canada is pretty damned cold but its Siberian Express in NW half of Canada. It's doing something similar that last week's ensembles did...that is bring down the cold into central Canada in the long range. Heights lowered again over the west coast of Canada at the end of the run, but it looks like the higher heights that were previously in AK, did the dirty work for cross polar flow into central and southern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Pretty fantastic LE showing up on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Pretty fantastic LE showing up on the NAM That's not a bad trajectory for Buffalo. South towns FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 It's doing something similar that last week's ensembles did...that is bring down the cold into central Canada in the long range. Heights lowered again over the west coast of Canada at the end of the run, but it looks like the higher heights that were previously in AK, did the dirty work for cross polar flow into central and southern Canada. If we can keep this current D9 signal for the next 48 hours without it turning to crap, I think we'll be looking at a potentially fun period starting after Dec 2-3. Obviously no guarantee we still can't get lakes cutters in there, but I think the snow threat would rise substantially in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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