40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Heavy heavies will come eventually. This winter is going to be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Heavy heavies will come eventually. This winter is going to be good. Ray, so good to see at least you aren't buying into this chicken little bullsh*t. Snow be with youj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Party like it's 1989 well for 1989 to work...it has to actually get bitterly cold for the next 5 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The hits just keep on coming Man, next week is a ton warmer than what models showed back when next mon-fri was in the 11-15 day time frame. All those balls cold model runs, and the period won't be all that far from normal overall in a lot of the east it appears. Yeah for awhile models were showing that we could get the big NAO to coincide with a good -EPO for at least a few days, but now looks like that isn't happening so the chill isn't that great. Maybe if we could somehow loop the MJO back around before the NAO weakens we'd be in business, but not sure we can accomplish that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Wow, I found this site after two weeks of hell. Better late than never. I was just a Winter Warrior sort of speak over at Eastern. I follow Winter weather because I ski, snow shoe, ice drink....I mean ice fish and enjoy outdoor activities in the Winter. After going to Eastern the last few weeks to read about this upcoming Winter weather trends etc...and seeing the "read only" website I was beside myself. I did some digging this morning I stumbled upon AWF from a link at another weather forum. Glad I found this site. Props to the folks responsible for making this site. I can breath a sigh or relief knowing I have a reliable source to get my Winter Weather fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Wow, I found this site after two weeks of hell. Better late than never. I was just a Winter Warrior sort of speak over at Eastern. I follow Winter weather because I ski, snow shoe, ice drink....I mean ice fish and enjoy outdoor activities in the Winter. After going to Eastern the last few weeks to read about this upcoming Winter weather trends etc...and seeing the "read only" website I was beside myself. I did some digging this morning I stumbled upon AWF from a link at another weather forum. Glad I found this site. Props to the folks responsible for making this site. I can breath a sigh or relief knowing I have a reliable source to get my Winter Weather fix. Glad you made it. You were one of the ones I was wondering what happened to. One of Will's spies in Northern ORH Cty How'd you find the new site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Wow, I found this site after two weeks of hell. Better late than never. I was just a Winter Warrior sort of speak over at Eastern. I follow Winter weather because I ski, snow shoe, ice drink....I mean ice fish and enjoy outdoor activities in the Winter. After going to Eastern the last few weeks to read about this upcoming Winter weather trends etc...and seeing the "read only" website I was beside myself. I did some digging this morning I stumbled upon AWF from a link at another weather forum. Glad I found this site. Props to the folks responsible for making this site. I can breath a sigh or relief knowing I have a reliable source to get my Winter Weather fix. Glad you were able to find it! You would think Marcus would have been kind enough at least to link this place over at eastern. Anyways not to go OT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 12z GFS ensembles struggling again in the EPO region. Now they trended much higher with 500mb heights here after D10, and this leads to a big dump of cold in the nrn Plains, spreading east. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 12z GFS ensembles struggling again in the EPO region. Now they trended much higher with 500mb heights here after D10, and this leads to a big dump of cold in the nrn Plains, spreading east. Crazy. The flip flopping continues as we thought...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The flip flopping continues as we thought...... That's a pretty big change from 00z. The whole country turns colder, except the se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 That's a pretty big change from 00z. The whole country turns colder, except the se. Good signal, Then maybe everyone can come down of the ledge now........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Good signal, Then maybe everyone can come down of the ledge now........ Not until the op GFS shows it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Good signal, Then maybe everyone can come down of the ledge now........ Until you look at what model is showing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 12z GFS ensembles struggling again in the EPO region. Now they trended much higher with 500mb heights here after D10, and this leads to a big dump of cold in the nrn Plains, spreading east. Crazy. Not buying..hope it's right..but not buying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Until you look at what model is showing this. True but at least its not the op, Like to see the euro ensembles show it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Not until the op GFS shows it. Yeah......lol I take it with a grain of salt......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 True but at least its not the op, Like to see the euro ensembles show it.... They've been awful..maybe worse than the GFS ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 They've been awful..maybe worse than the GFS ensembles GFS has been too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 They've been awful..maybe worse than the GFS ensembles Well, One of them is going to have to be right or wrong............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Well, One of them is going to have to be right or wrong............ They were both in lock step with the overall theme/idea of cold and stormy..so they both should be tossed into the toilet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 They were both in lock step with the overall theme/idea of cold and stormy..so they both should be tossed into the toilet . And then we will use??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 And then we will use??? Witchcraft and sorcery until we are in NAM time. EDIT: Or ask Cardinal Pete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Not a very entertaining solution – no … I think some of those colder solutions can return – although admittedly, it’s like watching a Red Sox game when they can’t buy a hit; you just don’t “feel” like it will ever happen. That aside, the –NAO handling has been utterly atrocious by all models. It was a west-based –NAO 2 days ago when there was big D10 blizzard for NE; since it has been an east-based one, which allows all these Lakes cutters in the 12z GFS. The problem with that is: Why does the east-based version have to verify any more than the west-based? Oh, I know – because that would mean fun (we can’t allow THAT to happen). Seriously though, I am just so glad this is happening now and now on some February 15 when we are sitting on -95% snow fall deficits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Some interesting stats right now. I just looked at the differences in temp for the current 850T anomalies for the 6-10 day forecast, and compared them with the 11-15D forecast. I did this for both model ensembles The models both have trended about 3.5C or so warmer on average from the 11-15D forecast to the 6-10D forecast. The Euro however is about 4C warmer during the next 6-10 day as compared to the GFS. My guess is that both models may be on both sides of the spectrum a little too much, but I think the euro has a better handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 And then we will use??? Toilet paper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Well the NAO block is still hanging tough on this run. I do think that as time goes by, and we continue with this pattern, a better outcome is a distinct possibility as everything shifts south like climo says it should. Of course the key is to retain the nao block, otherwise it's a different ball game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 And then we will use??? Squirrels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Any Euro news, amigos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Well the NAO block is still hanging tough on this run. scott can u decipher wether it is east or west based? b/c what i gather east based is complete garbage ...perhaps jerry's elephant can be brought back from the dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Will be starting a scholarship fund for Kevs kids after he sees the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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