40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Yeah its ugly, not the kind of pattern we want to see...I just talked to DT online though...he really hit the pattern hard saying the NAO block wouldn't develop and called it days ago when I talked to him then. But he said New England def. has a chance probably after Dec 3-4th. But he is pessimistic on the rest of the east of anything. He did say New England will be the winner in the east this year...he been on fire recently and destroying JB. His first IM to me was something like "So I wonder how the late Nov 1989/2002 pattern is working out for JB" Slightly above avg snowfall right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Reading between the lines, DT thinks the pattern is gonna suck for awhile, but said NE will get theirs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Reading between the lines, DT thinks the pattern is gonna suck for awhile, but said NE will get theirs. Cool, pretty much what I figured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Slightly above avg snowfall right He never specified...but he said something like "you guys get payback this year" when I told him about how last year was such screw job. His verbatim line was "New Enlgnda is the big win this year" (typo on purpose) when talking about E of the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 He never specified...but he said something like "you guys get payback this year" when I told him about how last year was such screw job. His verbatim line was "New Enlgnda is the big win this year" (typo on purpose) when talking about E of the Lakes. lol I gathered. I'm out for my 5 hours sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 lol I gathered. I'm out for my 5 hours sleep. I certainly don't mind having DT on our side while he's in one of his hot streaks. He's en fuego right now (medium-long range) like he was in the first half of 2008-2009 winter. I told him how this lack of NAO block was frustrating me and he said something like "patience, you guys will get it up there...not like here". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Euro ensembles have a bit of different look now...they use the Nov 30 lakes cutter idea to promote a -NAO beyond that...the signal isn't very robust, but its definitely there. Its pretty cold after that...but knock on wood. We'll see how this evolves...obviously the ensembles really gagged with the Dec 1 pattern it appears....so we'll have to get a lot closer to believe this new reload pattern. Also its not guarantee that the Dec 1pattern works out either. A slight change in it could have big consequences down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I just think there's a widespread assumption on this board that the La Niñas of old were all good winters and that we'll see that type of La Niña this season due to the PDO/NAO phase. While some of this may be true, and most everyone believes this winter will be colder than torch Niñas like 99-00, there were plenty of stinker La Niñas back then too. 49-50, 50-51, 54-55, and 73-74 were all bad La Niña winters for SNE during that time period and decadal cycle. Why are people always focusing on 70-71 rather than 49-50? A lot of the old Niñas sucked folks. Dude quit it...we are having a discussion about meteorology here, no one is trying to be arrogant and everyone is sharing what they know/believe. In fact, it looks like my assertions about the coming pattern were more correct than many of the mets here, at least with what is being shown right now. This from the guy who says it wasn't a hot summer when it was the 2nd warmest on record. What a joke this is. Yes, yes it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Euro ensembles have a bit of different look now...they use the Nov 30 lakes cutter idea to promote a -NAO beyond that...the signal isn't very robust, but its definitely there. Its pretty cold after that...but knock on wood. We'll see how this evolves...obviously the ensembles really gagged with the Dec 1 pattern it appears....so we'll have to get a lot closer to believe this new reload pattern. Also its not guarantee that the Dec 1pattern works out either. A slight change in it could have big consequences down the road. They definitely look like they're hinting at two storm tracks. One near the Great Lakes and the other with redeveloping Miller B's. It could also be signaling the classic Midwest low moving east and redeveloping off the New England coast. Looks like more continued head aches coming up, but it did trend better with the nao block, and also lowered heights down BY Hudson Bay which isn't a bad thing. I'd rather not see low pressure extending south at the surface from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes because this was hinted at last week for this coming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I'm glad I don't have access at work. This turn of events the last 2 days has been gut wrenching. Christ ..more 60's next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 December 2007 did have some ridging in the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Arctic so there's hints of a -EPO pattern there. I'm not saying New England can't get snow in a -PNA/-NAO pattern. But I think people were being premature since it's much more likely a modest-mediocre pattern produces snow in the second half of December than around Thanksgiving or the first few days of meteorological winter. There was a rush to define a pattern change towards cold and snowy which I have constantly been warning about. And doesn't it worry you that every event trends towards a lakes cutter? First it was going to be a potential Thanksgiving snowstorm, that turned into a cutter. Now the next one is turning into a cutter with massive SE ridging... Not all of the La Niña of old were that great...I don't think winters like 54-55 and 73-74 were much to write home about for New England. Not all were great, no. My point was that from the mid 50's through mid 70's, we had some very good years in there. They key was likely the nao as it helped cut down on the amount of inside runners during that time. It was CLEARLY a different period than the Ninas of 80s-90s. Lets not forget the fact that the PDO was negative during this time as well. While all these don't guarantee a better winter, I'll take my chances when I see these working in tandem and indeed we had some good winters during this time, unlike some of the Nina's we've learned to despise. Unfortunately, I had to get some sleep as this argument went on last night, but Will made some of my points. I don't think anybody but a few weenies rushed the pattern change. I must have said several times last week that models were hinting at warmer solutions for lows, but it was tough to tell if it would come to fruition or not. Well it has, and like Will said...maybe it's been a little more frustrating then we first thought, but I'll be surprise if we don't benefit from this at some point between now and mid December. I'm never gung ho about snow for my backyard this time of year, but the upper level pattern at least gives us a shot for one event or more. I also share the opinion that this pattern probably would be much more beneficial a month from now for several reasons I stated yesterday. You're good at recognizing patterns, and I give you props for that, but I think you sometimes tend to be black and white when it comes to meteorology. In other words, you come across as if A+B=C when it comes to weather. It's simply not like that at all. If it were like that, well our field certainly would not be bashed by the public like it has been from time to time. Don't get me wrong, you're a great poster and a smart dude, that's just the opinion that I get from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The only reason you're looking good is because today's model runs basically evaporated what was previously a massive sustained west based -NAO that was on the ensembles runs for the last several days. Mets have given you plenty of examples of snowstorms occurring in SNE with a -NAO without a +PNA and/or -EPO. There is plenty of cold air in Canada and if we get the -NAO that cold will be locked into New England and we will have above normal chances of snow. I doubt anybody ever said it was a lock (some people might have been overconfident I haven't been following this thread that closely) and I doubt anybody said the pattern was ideal. The problem is you always speak with too much confidence and that's why people are jumping all over you. Just 10 days ago you were saying how confident you were it would be cold this week.. I will enjoy my 60s tomorrow. Hey compared to the debates we have seen from time to time on Eastern, this one is a good one with less attitude and rancor. Sure there are egos involved but really, some pretty smart people are taking stands on where they think things are going. And they are doing it based on their interpretation of science. There is really nothing to take credit for yet. Lets assess this on about December 10. It is a shame DT can't control himself enough to participate in this kind of forum, but he did an interesting analysis a couple of weeks ago on his site. Glad he is on board for a good NE winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Here is how the pattern looked for our snowy streak in 2007 and 2008. Once we got deeper into December when cold and snowpack got established, it promoted snow over the region in what looks to be a horrible set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Here is how the pattern looked for our snowy streak in 2007 and 2008. Once we got deeper into December when cold and snowpack got established, it promoted snow over the region in what looks to be a horrible set up. that's a good post, scott. and i appreciate your thoughts and realistic view...but forget it. it's over. no more snow. never. ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The fact of the matter is that even the storm pegged around 12/5 could be mild. I'm putting it out there. Some ensemble members hint at it, and the pattern could support it. The other aspect is the fact that I don't see the NAO breaking down any time soon. I also think the GOA low will develop in the next couple of weeks as well. What this means is that we will have a battle on our hands, but at the same time gradually cooling as climo dictates. Give it a chance folks. Perhaps early December may not bare the fruit as some thought, but for God's sake..give the month a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 that's a good post, scott. and i appreciate your thoughts and realistic view...but forget it. it's over. no more snow. never. ever. Kev has been removed from his position as high Priest due to an incident involving some models. They gave him false signals which he acted upon in an inappropriate way unbecoming of a Priest. SkiMRG has taken over his spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Kev has been removed from his position as high Priest due to an incident involving some models. They gave him false signals which he acted upon in an inappropriate way unbecoming of a Priest. SkiMRG has taken over his spot. Kevin went from Jesus to Judas in one day. He has betrayed his people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Kevin went from Jesus to Judas in one day. He has betrayed his people. Thanks for the ideas. As we can see, the models have been too fast in bringing in a pattern change. I still think the end of the first week of December is the storm we need to key in on for a widespread snow event. I'll temper my optimism like you but that seems to be the best shot in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The fact of the matter is that even the storm pegged around 12/5 could be mild. I'm putting it out there. Some ensemble members hint at it, and the pattern could support it. The other aspect is the fact that I don't see the NAO breaking down any time soon. I also think the GOA low will develop in the next couple of weeks as well. What this means is that we will have a battle on our hands, but at the same time gradually cooling as climo dictates. Give it a chance folks. Perhaps early December may not bare the fruit as some thought, but for God's sake..give the month a chance. I'll take my chances with this! As long as something like this occurs we will definitely see our chances, some may work out, some may not, but in the end I think at least something will work out in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Kev has been removed from his position as high Priest due to an incident involving some models. They gave him false signals which he acted upon in an inappropriate way unbecoming of a Priest. SkiMRG has taken over his spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The fact of the matter is that even the storm pegged around 12/5 could be mild. I'm putting it out there. Some ensemble members hint at it, and the pattern could support it. The other aspect is the fact that I don't see the NAO breaking down any time soon. I also think the GOA low will develop in the next couple of weeks as well. What this means is that we will have a battle on our hands, but at the same time gradually cooling as climo dictates. Give it a chance folks. Perhaps early December may not bare the fruit as some thought, but for God's sake..give the month a chance. Scott. Thank you for your measured approach. Others should look to your calm analysis as an example. All this carrying on is just silly. If the models were showing heavy snow in the lr and people were already adding up their potential snow totals they would look ridiculous. Same applies to this current state of affairs. Big Winter still in the cards as far as I'm concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Kev has been removed from his position as high Priest due to an incident involving some models. They gave him false signals which he acted upon in an inappropriate way unbecoming of a Priest. SkiMRG has taken over his spot. The other Cardinals and I had an emergency meeting about this tawdry scandal. We've decided to move Rev Kev to a quiet parish in the MA. Hopefully this will give him some time for quiet reflection and repose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Scott. Thank you for your measured approach. Others should look to your calm analysis as an example. All this carrying on is just silly. If the models were showing heavy snow in the lr and people were already adding up their potential snow totals they would look ridiculous. Same applies to this current state of affairs. Big Winter still in the cards as far as I'm concerned. Generally speaking, nothing has changed in our outlook ... long range models be damned. Gotta wait til under 4 days out to get amped or down. I'm onboard for a good year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Generally speaking, nothing has changed in our outlook ... long range models be damned. Gotta wait til under 4 days out to get amped or down. I'm onboard for a good year. Bless you my son. Snow be with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Bless you my son. Snow be with you. I realize I'm rather hypocritical when I say I can't get too amped over a bomb on the long range because I do, but bear with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Sorry. I'm still Rev Kev..just a realistic rev..not one that is going to walk blindly into a a Vietnemese ambush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Sorry. I'm still Rev Kev..just a realistic rev..not one that is going to walk blindly into a a Vietnemese ambush You'll find Virginia fits your Winter outlook nicely. Also, no back injuries shoveling snow this year. Send us a postcard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Just saw goofus, while its to be taken with 1billion grains of salt, sad to see it move to the king, cutter after cutter. Lets hope we can get things looking better as we lead up to xmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 You'll find Virginia fits your Winter outlook nicely. Also, no back injuries shoveling snow this year. Send us a postcard. I don't think he is bailing on the entire winter, just the period pre 12/5 which I think right now is pretty safe to do considering what we have seen transpire the past few days. It's not like that's a good period for much anyway. We'll see what the period has after about 12/5...this is when things could be much better suited for us, as long as we can get the correct NAO setup. The good news is it doesn't appear to be going anywhere strongly positive anytime soon so the -NAO should stick for a bit while longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I pretty much have resolved not to set my expectations high to avoid disappointment. Outside of the highest elevations, the Ct River Valley from Hartford to Brattleboro Vt has not seen accumulating snow in almost 9 months! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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