ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 DT FTW this thread FTL You really don't like to add much to many threads do you? Doesn't do our Alma Mater proud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateWX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The good news is it's still a little early and hopefully things can change as we head into December but I don't think this is a year where things become better as we go along. If the Nina does continue to strengthen over the next few weeks, which it looks like it may it's just going to continue to make the PNA tank negative and the Euro has been really insisting that we see a raging +EPO...these are not good things. True it is still early. I honestly don't know a whole lot about forecasting never mind trying to figure out the long range. Im just a weenie who enjoys the extremes of weather when it dishes it out. Its a long winter and I am not really sure what it has in store. It might be epic, it might start out fast and then fade or it might not do much from start to finish. I think I am just gona take it several days at a time and just ride with it. I think its alot less stressfull LOL, in the end im pritty sure we all will get our chances at some point. Some might strikeout, while others cash in. If we get a coastal hugger obviously I won't be in a great spot but, I am sure all of us will get in on the fun at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 You really don't like to add much to many threads do you? Doesn't do our Alma Mater proud. I'm blocked at work now and its harder to write long posts on a phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 You really don't like to add much to many threads do you? Doesn't do our Alma Mater proud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Tempers and fuses are very short today. Not a good vibe today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 I'm blocked at work now and its harder to write long posts on a phone Read the first post of this thread. Pretty hard to call it a bust on Nov 22nd...especially when it was specifically said in the first post "this was never going to be the Siberian Express"....we're looking for some early December snow threats out of this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I know I enjoyed it. 53" for that month IMBY while areas just to my north in the catskills received upwards of 80-90" for the month alone.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Tempers and fuses are very short today. Not a good vibe today You've done quite a good job mixing up the kool-aid. So very disappointed in your performance. Not exactly nerves of steel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Yeah that isn't great for any sustained cold at all. That is an eye opener right there that's not as bad as it might seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 You really don't like to add much to many threads do you? Doesn't do our Alma Mater proud. LOL - best post in this thread since it when way off tangent in the last 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 that's not as bad as it might seem. Some of it is front loaded with the torch today and tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 that's not as bad as it might seem. Enough cold to tap yet not overwhelming cold that could lead to suppresion. Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Some of it is front loaded with the torch today and tomorrow Kev what was your high temp at 1k? I saw bdl was around 60. Did you avoid it today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Some of it is front loaded with the torch today and tomorrow It also doesn't include any days past Dec 1st...I think our coldest weather might be after that time. Not necessarily arctic, but I could see a general below avg regime through the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Read the first post of this thread. Pretty hard to call it a bust on Nov 22nd...especially when it was specifically said in the first post "this was never going to be the Siberian Express"....we're looking for some early December snow threats out of this pattern. No one is calling it a bust yet, just the hype of this being a pattern change may be prematue and I'm not just talking about this weknd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 No one is calling it a bust yet, just the hype of this being a pattern change may be prematue and I'm not just talking about this weknd The pattern certainly seems like it's going to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 It also doesn't include any days past Dec 1st...I think our coldest weather might be after that time. Not necessarily arctic, but I could see a general below avg regime through the 10th. And that is all we can probably expect with this pattern, Does not mean we can't get snow out of it, This was not going to be a cut or dry winter pattern from the get go so there will be more uncertainty in the weeks and months ahead it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 LOL - best post in this thread since it when way off tangent in the last 18 hours. I resent that. I analyzed the models as best I could. Nothing more, nothing less. My thoughts for the upcoming storm this week are panning out. Early December is still up in the air. I do think we see some frozen precip. though. Details to be determined. My best guess is the first system around the 1st of Dec has a primary storm over the GL with a secondary that traverses over New England. This sets up a 50-50 low that prevents the follow-up storm ~Dec 5th from cutting west of us and gives us a classic Miller B with secondary development off the Delmarva. First widespread storm of the year. May I crash and burn with my thoughts or rise victorious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Regarding the Canadian temp map posted a while back...here are the Canadian day 8 analogs rolled forward 4 days to get a peak of the pattern right near and after that D10 period Pretty classic Nina RNA/-EPO pattern...but with a piece of the NAO block getting retrograded to near Baffin Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 This will be a fun thread to bump if we get dumped on prior to Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I resent that. I analyzed the models as best I could. Nothing more, nothing less. My thoughts for the upcoming storm this week are panning out. Early December is still up in the air. I do think we see some frozen precip. though. Details to be determined. My best guess is the first system around the 1st of Dec has a primary storm over the GL with a secondary that traverses over New England. This sets up a 50-50 low that prevents the follow-up storm ~Dec 5th from cutting west of us and gives us a classic Miller B with secondary development off the Delmarva. First widespread storm of the year. May I crash and burn with my thoughts or rise victorious. Old man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 You really don't like to add much to many threads do you? Doesn't do our Alma Mater proud. Tempers are definitely a little up there today... emotions seem to be running rampant. This must be the PMS time of the month for AMWX forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Kev what was your high temp at 1k? I saw bdl was around 60. Did you avoid it today? Yeah dude..nowhere near 60 here. High was 55.4. On the way home on 291 in South Windsor my car thermo hit 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 It also doesn't include any days past Dec 1st...I think our coldest weather might be after that time. Not necessarily arctic, but I could see a general below avg regime through the 10th. I hope so. It would be awful if we only see a handful of below normal days out of this whole period before things flip warm mid December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 This will be a fun thread to bump if we get dumped on prior to Christmas. Haha or no one will bump it if it rains all December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Old man So true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Haha or no one will bump it if it rains all December. It will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 so, should i stay up for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 I hope so. It would be awful if we only see a handful of below normal days out of this whole period before things flip warm mid December There's no guarantee of that either. There's clearly a lot of conflicting signals going on and its really killing the consistency of model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I resent that. I analyzed the models as best I could. Nothing more, nothing less. My thoughts for the upcoming storm this week are panning out. Early December is still up in the air. I do think we see some frozen precip. though. Details to be determined. My best guess is the first system around the 1st of Dec has a primary storm over the GL with a secondary that traverses over New England. This sets up a 50-50 low that prevents the follow-up storm ~Dec 5th from cutting west of us and gives us a classic Miller B with secondary development off the Delmarva. First widespread storm of the year. May I crash and burn with my thoughts or rise victorious. sorry dude. that wasn't aimed at you. and it was light-hearted anyway. though i admit, it would nice if specific threads could stay on topic a bit more. 75 % of the posts in here could probably be eliminated...not that they are bad or stupid or anything...just back and forth stuff that's not pertinent. whatever. no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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