OKpowdah Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Well I'm a bit puzzled at this because its not like there wasn't good agreement about the NAO block...they are moving it all over the place now when just a day or two ago they had fantastic agreement on the stout block that would be tough to dislodge. At any rate, this "new" look on the 18z GFS would be fine by me. A big PV in SE Canada to supply some cold air with an active jet to the south. Yeah, the GFS and Euro were pretty consistent with the strong DS ridging. The question each run came to the 50/50 low. And like I had suggested before, it's a domino effect. The runs that looked good with the first storm, looked good for the rest of the run, because then that first wave would move into the 50/50 position for the next storm and so on, but if the first wave breaks early over the Great Lakes, we get vortex genesis over central Canada, and no 50/50 low, and then we end up a bunch of lakes cutters. Both scenarios occur with strong DS ridging. Then the differences arise with how the block breaks down. The lakes cutter scenario seems to favor gradually knocking down the block to the point of a North Atlantic ridge (like the latest GFS and Euro). The other scenario involves retrogression of the block, which the ultimate fate is uncertain, but would definitely raise the NAO as the ridging slides west of Baffin Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I'm good. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 What the hell are the 18z GFS esnmebles doing now? All of the sudden they have a strong PV developing in SE Canada after D9...that definitely isn't what the 12z ensembles looked like. This pattern is drving even the ensembles nuts all of the sudden. When all else fails, go with climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Yeah and this is the problem..it's all due to the fast PAC flow ..it's got warning signs written all over it I agree PAC flow is possibly causing some problems. It's possible models aren't respecting that enough, and keying too much on the block to the ne. We've seen that before. I think that's just one piece of the puzzle though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Yeah, the GFS and Euro were pretty consistent with the strong DS ridging. The question each run came to the 50/50 low. And like I had suggested before, it's a domino effect. The runs that looked good with the first storm, looked good for the rest of the run, because then that first wave would move into the 50/50 position for the next storm and so on, but if the first wave breaks early over the Great Lakes, we get vortex genesis over central Canada, and no 50/50 low, and then we end up a bunch of lakes cutters. Both scenarios occur with strong DS ridging. Then the differences arise with how the block breaks down. The lakes cutter scenario seems to favor gradually knocking down the block to the point of a North Atlantic ridge (like the latest GFS and Euro). The other scenario involves retrogression of the block, which the ultimate fate is uncertain, but would definitely raise the NAO as the ridging slides west of Baffin Island. Yeah we don't have much wiggle room, when the trough out west wants to dig into the high Plains. Any shift ne of that block opens the door for a more westerly solution. I think this is more likely to occur earlier in the season when cold is not as entrenched and we have an active pattern with lots of shortwaves embedded in the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 thats true ginx, however this year with a dominant -nao starting last winter has only brough new england a suck feb and march and an epic torch all year long, so should be used with caution. I will take my chances last year was a total fluke filled with elephant sh I t , point me out another year with record low ao nao that failed to produce. Put last year away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 Here's that "new an improved" 18z GFS ensemble solution I was referring to earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 My balls are dangling on your chin right now..and I put my thoughts out there. It's not over..it's likely just not looking as good as we thought. It's called dealing with reality So testy.(again NPI) Your reality is highly dependant on the lastest model output. Ever notice how Scott and Will never get too high or too low wrt to what the models show. A measured approach is the winning formula. Good times are just ahead. I thought you were the Rev Kev of the Chuch of Latter Day weenies. Why spread anguish amongst your congregation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Totally agree! Everyone gets so worked up and looks too much into the NAO. It's great for us to have a -NAO but chances are it's not going to win out over a crappy Pacific, especially when the signals in the Pacific are real strong. The only way the -NAO will help out is if it's very strong and setup more east-based. With the way the Pacific is right now it's going to be very hard for us to overcome it plus we have the fact that the Nina will be strengthening over the upcoming weeks. Has anybody looked at the 200/300 levels in the Pac over the 5-15 day period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I will take my chances last year was atonal fluke filled with elephant sh I t , point me out another year with record low ao nao that failed to produce. Put last year away. I would love to. Not yet. Atmosphere needs to show me something(happening)not just modeled ten days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 ?? See Will's and Scooter's posts if you don't understand the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 thats true ginx, however this year with a dominant -nao starting last winter has only brough new england a suck feb and march and an epic torch all year long, so should be used with caution. Feb was GREAT here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Has anybody looked at the 200/300 levels in the Pac over the 5-15 day period? I have not actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I've had it with the GFS ensembles..They've been consistant..consistantly wrong..They are garbage. ANyone looked at the Canadian temp anomoly deviations..our best predictor? Not great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I would love to. Not yet. Atmosphere needs to show me something(happening)not just modeled ten days out. If you are expecting an arctic outbreak with multiple snowstorms good luck, climo man climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I have not actually. How can you make post about Fast Pac flow without looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Here's that "new an improved" 18z GFS ensemble solution I was referring to earlier. That would be great if it worked out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Who cares about getting an Arctic outbreak in here really...it's like like we absolutely need that to get some good snows, we just need to get a pattern in place where there isn't much of a zonal flow and we can get more of a trough along the east coast. As long as the pattern is more zonal with the look of the Pacific mild air is just going to flood into the US. The only thing that will help to try and get somewhat of a trough to occur is if/when the NAO tanks negative and creates a nice battle ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Steve ..post the Canadian temp map that Jerry loves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 See Will's and Scooter's posts if you don't understand the pattern LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Feb was GREAT here. Last Feb was probably one of the greatest winter months on record for ENY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Steve ..post the Canadian temp map that Jerry loves Huge block negative ao normal temps here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 How can you make post about Fast Pac flow without looking? Ohhh...you meant looking at the flow, thought you were talking about something else maybe. The flow has began to really increase and looks like it will stay that way for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 LOL Got that post you made a while back about bridge jumping weenies? There is a prophet that will show himself and his name shall be Ginx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Last Feb was probably one of the greatest winter months on record for ENY.. I know I enjoyed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Huge block negative ao normal temps here Yeah that isn't great for any sustained cold at all. That is an eye opener right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Wow, what a total meltdown (npi) from Kevin. What's it gonna be Kev, cold snowy Winter or warm 2007ish type Winter, put your b*lls out like you ask others to do. Of course, I am unwavering in my thinking that in the final analysis this Winter will be a good snowy one. I bet Ginx and Jerry aren't running around like their hair is on fire screaming "It's over!! We're doomed!!". For some of us I would bet on warmish type winter, might see more thunder in winter than summer ala 06-07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 The good news is it's still a little early and hopefully things can change as we head into December but I don't think this is a year where things become better as we go along. If the Nina does continue to strengthen over the next few weeks, which it looks like it may it's just going to continue to make the PNA tank negative and the Euro has been really insisting that we see a raging +EPO...these are not good things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 If you are expecting an arctic outbreak with multiple snowstorms good luck, climo man climo. you have a fantastic ability to put words in mouths...........LOL I never said anything of the like. In fact im expecting a pretty blah winter, especially for those along the coastal plain, however ski country should do pretty darn well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The euro is kind of starting to scare me for the long-range. It just does not want to give us anything good to work with, develops such a deep trough in the west and builds a major ridge out here in the east. Hopefully the GFS is onto something but the track record of the euro in the past has been so good and we really don't know how the recent upgrades to the GFS will factor into how it does in the winter months. Given how the models are handling the NAO/PNA/EPO in the long-range we'll just have to wait and see really. DT FTW this thread FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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