Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I'm good. Thank God, man this is a JIm Jones disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Wow, what a total meltdown (npi) from Kevin. What's it gonna be Kev, cold snowy Winter or warm 2007ish type Winter, put your b*lls out like you ask others to do. Of course, I am unwavering in my thinking that in the final analysis this Winter will be a good snowy one. I bet Ginx and Jerry aren't running around like their hair is on fire screaming "It's over!! We're doomed!!". My balls are dangling on your chin right now..and I put my thoughts out there. It's not over..it's likely just not looking as good as we thought. It's called dealing with reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Thank God, man this is a Jerry Jones disaster. No one ever suspected Feb '69 was en route; this period always looked to offer some potential that may or may not work out....wake me when Novie ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 hopefully if the pattern is going to oscillate back and forth (not saying that's the final outcome) we get some snow events along the way. as we move through the next 10 days or so, even cutters will produce *some* frozen precip with the kind of antecedent airmasses we should see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I never expected a great deal of snow in December anyway, but what I don't want to see is Sam and Rick (Logan11) fornicating amid 2' of mashies, while I lay pinned @ 32.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 and R. I would be fine with a total pattern fail; just not that. Latitude, baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 No one ever suspected Feb '69 was en route; this period always looked to offer some potential that may or may not work out....wake me when Novie ends. LOL I typed Jerry Jones when I mean't Jim Jones, guess it's the same thing, mass suicide,. keV fed them all koolaid, bodies frothing at the mouth with eyes bulging out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 When the Rev preaches reality people take offense. I can't always preach weenieness..Sometimes the Rev sees the future well in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 What the hell are the 18z GFS esnmebles doing now? All of the sudden they have a strong PV developing in SE Canada after D9...that definitely isn't what the 12z ensembles looked like. This pattern is drving even the ensembles nuts all of the sudden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 hopefully if the pattern is going to oscillate back and forth (not saying that's the final outcome) we get some snow events along the way. as we move through the next 10 days or so, even cutters will produce *some* frozen precip with the kind of antecedent airmasses we should see. That is fine; even those of us who thought we would make out well like myself cited swfes as the predominate means of attaining snowfall....not classic coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 hopefully if the pattern is going to oscillate back and forth (not saying that's the final outcome) we get some snow events along the way. as we move through the next 10 days or so, even cutters will produce *some* frozen precip with the kind of antecedent airmasses we should see. Hey sounds like Winter in New England, imagine that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Models, especially the GFS is going back to a troughing pattern over the Aleutian Islands. One thing that has been consistent in the past case storms that the KU NESIS scale examines all show troughing over the Aleutian Islands as ridging develops over the PNA region. This could be the pattern change. That we have gone to ridging and then back to troughing on the GFS model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 What the hell are the 18z GFS esnmebles doing now? All of the sudden they have a strong PV developing in SE Canada after D9...that definitely isn't what the 12z ensembles looked like. This pattern is drving even the ensembles nuts all of the sudden. Weeeeeeeeeeeeee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Latitude, baby. Says the man in the relative snowhole; you had better hope that a KU doesn't shut me out because you wouldn't do too well, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 What the hell are the 18z GFS esnmebles doing now? All of the sudden they have a strong PV developing in SE Canada after D9...that definitely isn't what the 12z ensembles looked like. This pattern is drving even the ensembles nuts all of the sudden. The only thing consistent about the model guidance in the last week is their inconsistency lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 One of the reasons that I have backed off is because the holiday weekend cold shot is now transient after being advertised and modelled as the start of an extended below normal period. Now we're back to normal and then above normal next week. That wasn't modelled anywehre until the last 2 days or so.It's like they see cold in advance and then warm up as we get closer..It's typically what happens in ninas and ripping Pac jets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 When the Rev preaches reality people take offense. I can't always preach weenieness..Sometimes the Rev sees the future well in advance False prophets,rot in hell , stay true to thine selve, good job. Not at all worried, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Weeeeeeeeeeeeee! The weenies on the bus.....(chorus) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Latitude, baby. Yup, I'm down with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 The only thing consistent about the model guidance in the last week is their inconsistency lol Well I'm a bit puzzled at this because its not like there wasn't good agreement about the NAO block...they are moving it all over the place now when just a day or two ago they had fantastic agreement on the stout block that would be tough to dislodge. At any rate, this "new" look on the 18z GFS would be fine by me. A big PV in SE Canada to supply some cold air with an active jet to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Says the man in the relative snowhole; you had better hope that a KU doesn't shut me out because you wouldn't do too well, either. Tis true, hopefully it's SWFE city this winter. I never clean up in KUs....never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Tis true, hopefully it's SWFE city this winter. I never clean up in KUs....never. All my money is on March, so whatever will be, will be nxt mth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 One of the reasons that I have backed off is because the holiday weekend cold shot is now transient after being advertised and modelled as the start of an extended below normal period. Now we're back to normal and then above normal next week. That wasn't modelled anywehre until the last 2 days or so.It's like they see cold in advance and then warm up as we get closer..It's typically what happens in ninas and ripping Pac jets that's reasonable. let's see where it goes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Well I'm a bit puzzled at this because its not like there wasn't good agreement about the NAO block...they are moving it all over the place now when just a day or two ago they had fantastic agreement on the stout block that would be tough to dislodge. At any rate, this "new" look on the 18z GFS would be fine by me. A big PV in SE Canada to supply some cold air with an active jet to the south. I will take my chances on the consistent tanking of the AO NAO with a PNA heading back neutral, history dictates a stormy period wiith colder than normal average temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Well I'm a bit puzzled at this because its not like there wasn't good agreement about the NAO block...they are moving it all over the place now when just a day or two ago they had fantastic agreement on the stout block that would be tough to dislodge. At any rate, this "new" look on the 18z GFS would be fine by me. A big PV in SE Canada to supply some cold air with an active jet to the south. Yeah and this is the problem..it's all due to the fast PAC flow ..it's got warning signs written all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 The euro is kind of starting to scare me for the long-range. It just does not want to give us anything good to work with, develops such a deep trough in the west and builds a major ridge out here in the east. Hopefully the GFS is onto something but the track record of the euro in the past has been so good and we really don't know how the recent upgrades to the GFS will factor into how it does in the winter months. Given how the models are handling the NAO/PNA/EPO in the long-range we'll just have to wait and see really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Yeah and this is the problem..it's all due to the fast PAC flow ..it's got warning signs written all over it ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Yeah and this is the problem..it's all due to the fast PAC flow ..it's got warning signs written all over it I agree PAC flow is possibly causing some problems. It's possible models aren't respecting that enough, and keying too much on the block to the ne. We've seen that before. I think that's just one piece of the puzzle though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I will take my chances on the consistent tanking of the AO NAO with a PNA heading back neutral, history dictates a stormy period wiith colder than normal average temps. thats true ginx, however this year with a dominant -nao starting last winter has only brough new england a suck feb and march and an epic torch all year long, so should be used with caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Yeah and this is the problem..it's all due to the fast PAC flow ..it's got warning signs written all over it Totally agree! Everyone gets so worked up and looks too much into the NAO. It's great for us to have a -NAO but chances are it's not going to win out over a crappy Pacific, especially when the signals in the Pacific are real strong. The only way the -NAO will help out is if it's very strong and setup more east-based. With the way the Pacific is right now it's going to be very hard for us to overcome it plus we have the fact that the Nina will be strengthening over the upcoming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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