CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Decent chance of northern lights tonight if it clears out. CME from that big M6.6 flare the other day is here. Solar windspeed and density is rather meh, but if the Bz swings back south, we should get a minor, maybe moderate show. There was also a M2 flare today... no idea if it spewed a nice CME yet but given the position of the sunspot, it probably did. I think that CME may arrive tomorrow. I actually follow space weather and receive alerts for various radiation and other levels. When flights go over the poles to places like India and the far east, radiation is a big concern for pilots. Communications also may get disrupted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Started snowing again around 6pm, white coating on everything but the puddles. It looks pretty sloppy out there... up above 2,000ft is still probably in the "somewhat powdery" category as the snow didn't really suffer any damage today. Below 2,000ft however is wet snow that's in the process of freezing with some new, wet snow falling on top of it. Once it freezes up completely late tonight, it will probably be punchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 This could be a great pattern for you folks. I'm a little nervous down my way because the raging -PNA scares me, and we'll need some help with the -NAO, but I think you folks near and north of CON-PWM could really cash in. Yeah, Our odds certainly increase typically as we get further into winter but especially with the way this pattern looks to set up i think we will have some decent chances at capping off an above normal winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 There has been a consistent signal (pattern and modeling), but the timing has been significantly jumping around. At that time frame nothing is a given...especially the details. Forget 4-8"...I'd take 3-5" and run at this point. I'd be happy to jump into a gradient pattern with a 3-5 incher to get us covered up and on the the right road again. But seriously this looks like a decent pattern for us. Models jumping because pattern is shifting again...but signal for an overrunning precip event has been there for a while. And we've been kind of dry last 2 weeks so we are due for significant precip next couple of weeks. Amazing temp jump today eh? Was in the mid 30s when I drove down to CON, played tennis 1-2 and then came out of the building to mid 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 The colder air is finally here... freezing up quick. -SN, 26F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 7:35pm 37.4F rain snow mix quickly changing to light snow temp down about 2F past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 34.9F and snowing some mood flakes. Temp dropping quickly now with the fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 SFM torched to 52F, a nearby PWS kissed 48F so I'd reckon it was upper 40s here today. 36.8F currently and still feels quite balmy outdoors. I hate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 SFM torched to 52F, a nearby PWS kissed 48F so I'd reckon it was upper 40s here today. 36.8F currently and still feels quite balmy outdoors. I hate it. We got to 42.3F here today, Not real damaging as it was only for a couple of hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 We got to 42.3F here today, Not real damaging as it was only for a couple of hours.. I did notice my snowpack is at 22", so very little bit the dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I did notice my snowpack is at 22", so very little bit the dust. Yeah at this point, Its pretty resilient.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Event totals: 1.3” Snow/0.12” L.E. Monday 2/14/2011 8:00 P.M. update: The precipitation was intermittent bouts of light/moderate rain and the temperature was around 40 F when I got home today around 5:00 P.M., but the rain was so sporadic that we’d picked up just 0.03” of liquid. About an hour later I was down in the basement getting something and heard what I thought was rain pattering on one of the outside vents, but when I came back up my wife asked me if I had heard the sleet outside. I guess what I heard was sleet. Hearing that, I decided to look outside and was surprised to see that it was dumping snow, so it looks like we changed over right around 6:00 P.M. as others in the area mentioned. It came down quite hard for a while there, and I’d say we had somewhere between a half inch and an inch by 7:00 P.M. It gradually tapered off to much lighter snowfall, but as of 8:00 P.M. we had picked up 1.3 inches of snow comprised of 0.09 inches of liquid. With the intensity of that snowfall, this storm certainly delivered more liquid equivalent on the frozen side vs. the liquid side. This marks the 30th accumulating snowfall event for the season here based on my storm breakdown. Some details from the 8:00 P.M. observations are below: New Snow: 1.3 inches New Liquid: 0.09 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 14.4 Snow Density: 6.9% H2O Temperature: 25.5 F Sky: Light Snow (2-5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 24.0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 This could be a great pattern for you folks. I'm a little nervous down my way because the raging -PNA scares me, and we'll need some help with the -NAO, but I think you folks near and north of CON-PWM could really cash in. Sure glad there are models other than gfs. Its 18z run gives us an inch or three about day 9 (and D9 never comes...), a big fat rainstorm to start March, and some cold/dry for the rest of the 16 days once the Thurs/Fri thaw is done. Not much sun for MBY so the top was 34. Had a few flakes about 5:30 or so this aft. Maine was quite the sandwich around the WF, with 52 at SFM and heavy snow with high about 20 at FVE. I had 24 at my 9 PM obs time with thin clouds. That will be my high for the 2/15 obs, though tomorrow aft may not get past the mid teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 cold front sure taking its time. still 39F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Just had a SHSN move through 30 mins ago. We hit a gust of 40mph overnight. Down to 16.3F now and it won't go up much, if any at all, from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Wow what a morning up at the mountain... the wind is just ripping through the Notch and out across the base area. Sounds like the roof is going to lift off the building, haha. Just a constant roar of mother nature. Honestly have no idea how much snow fell overnight as even the semi-sheltered snow board area was blown into drifts. I spoke with a groomer who is a skier and has a good idea about these types of things, and he said 2-4" would be prudent. Some areas there are ridge-back drifts of 1-2 feet, other areas are completely scoured. Temp keeps jumping between 1F and 3F here at 1,500ft... its -6F at 3,600ft. Wind chill up there must be brutal right now. As I was driving up the hill this morning I was thinking about how easy it was for winter to return... raining at 36F yesterday and now a raging ground blizzard. Oh and the drive in was very interesting this morning; luckily I only have to go a couple miles but ice covered roadways with a couple inches of arctic powder blowing and sifting around. The wind was causing cornices to form on the snowbanks and I had whiteout conditions almost the whole way from falling and blowing snow. When the wind really picks up its like someone put a white blanket over my SUV and you can't see the end of the hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Event totals: 2.3” Snow/0.15” L.E. Tuesday 2/15/2011 6:00 A.M. update: We picked up an additional inch of snow overnight at the house, and there was some wind out there. We even had a touch of wind down in the yard, but nothing that interfered with snowfall measurement. Relative to what the NWS was thinking on Saturday for these past three events: I just checked in on the latest discussion at BTV, and their thoughts are for three snowfall events for around here through the short term, with the first one today. They seem to line up as follows:Saturday: 1” – 3” Sunday: 1” – 3” Monday: 1” – 4” …things went down at the house as follows, assuming the Monday/Tuesday event is complete: Saturday: 2.5” Sunday: 0.0” Monday: 2.3” The Sunday system seemed to be the one that didn’t really deliver anything down in the valley, and I think totals were pretty low in the mountains as well. The northern mountains did get a decent shot from the third event however, some north to south 24-hour Vermont mountain totals are below: Jay Peak: 8” Smugg’s: 2” Stowe: 4” Bolton: 6” Mad River: 2” Sugarbush: 3” Killington: 3” Stratton: 3” Mount Snow: 0” Totals seemed to be highest north of the Winooski/I-89/Route 2 corridor, although I’m not sure why Smugg’s didn’t quite get in on that. Bolton Valley is reporting a 72-hour total of 10”, so in aggregate that’s pretty consistent with what the NWS predicted for the three events in the higher elevations. Some details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below: New Snow: 1.0 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 33.3 Snow Density: 3.0% H2O Temperature: 7.5 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 24.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 See the models have a SWFE on them for next week, That will be our next chance at some snow here, I like this pattern for NNE that is setting up in the near term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 See the models have a SWFE on them for next week, That will be our next chance at some snow here, I like this pattern for NNE that is setting up in the near term Looks nice, being that it's a bit south of us (on GFS anyway, dunno about Doc). Hopefully the trends will be our friend rather than enemy like this last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Temperature is dropping like a rock this morning. Was 18F when I went to the gym at 5AM. When I left for work at 7:30 it was down to 13F. Hopefully we can squeeze something out next week. It looks like there might be a few chances in the long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 The northern mountains did get a decent shot from the third event however, some north to south 24-hour Vermont mountain totals are below: Jay Peak: 8” Smugg’s: 2” Stowe: 4” Bolton: 6” Mad River: 2” Sugarbush: 3” Killington: 3” Stratton: 3” Mount Snow: 0” Totals seemed to be highest north of the Winooski/I-89/Route 2 corridor, although I’m not sure why Smugg’s didn’t quite get in on that. Bolton Valley is reporting a 72-hour total of 10”, so in aggregate that’s pretty consistent with what the NWS predicted for the three events in the higher elevations. I think the variation in measurements is due to wind... honestly I would take my 4" amount with a grain of salt right now. It could be anything from 2-8" in my opinion (there's definitely some deep, 8-12" or so pockets lining the trails, but the center of trails are bare). and upper mountain lifts are on wind hold so I can't get to the High Road snow stake. May try to get a snowmobile ride from patrol up there, but I'm curious as that snow board is in a very sheltered location. Our base area snow board was blown over with 5" on one side of the board, and bare board on the otherside so I can't use anything from that. This was a fairly serious wind event up here as there is not an area of snow that isn't wind-effected, scoured, or in a 2 foot drift. Measurements are nearly impossible with light fluff and 50-65mph winds. Also, J.Spin, I can't believe you only had a little wind at your location and not enough to effect measurements. You're wind-sheltered location is great for snowfall because I could see this fluffy snow piling up quite nicely in a calm environment... but in this wind the snow isn't able to build any loft. Down in town it was like an inch or two of wind-packed snow. I couldn't get a good measurement down in Stowe village because it was all scoured or drifted... cars were blown clean with drifts on the lee side. I'd guess we didn't get more than 1-2" down in town though. Still, it was enough to whiten up the dirty snowbanks so that's appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 1.1" as of 0630 this morning. My board is pretty sheltered from the wind, so I think that is a pretty accurate reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Looks nice, being that it's a bit south of us (on GFS anyway, dunno about Doc). Hopefully the trends will be our friend rather than enemy like this last one. Doc has it as well, And if it trends (and they usually do) north like the last one did, We will be in the bullseye but i would not want to see that until at least sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Doc has it as well, And if it trends (and they usually do) north like the last one did, We will be in the bullseye but i would not want to see that until at least sunday Yes fellas I think we are setting up for another good run. Eric you have 22? I have 23. You were getting screwed for a while, so good to see your pack so high. Roofs cleared? Mine is but the melting has turned my 300 ft driveway into an absolute ice rink. Can't even walk the dog, she just slips. I hate this phase...we get it every winter. Need some freshies soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 So Tooter how did you do? Out on the trails so no time to post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I think the variation in measurements is due to wind... honestly I would take my 4" amount with a grain of salt right now. It could be anything from 2-8" in my opinion (there's definitely some deep, 8-12" or so pockets lining the trails, but the center of trails are bare). and upper mountain lifts are on wind hold so I can't get to the High Road snow stake. May try to get a snowmobile ride from patrol up there, but I'm curious as that snow board is in a very sheltered location. Our base area snow board was blown over with 5" on one side of the board, and bare board on the otherside so I can't use anything from that. This was a fairly serious wind event up here as there is not an area of snow that isn't wind-effected, scoured, or in a 2 foot drift. Measurements are nearly impossible with light fluff and 50-65mph winds. Also, J.Spin, I can't believe you only had a little wind at your location and not enough to effect measurements. You're wind-sheltered location is great for snowfall because I could see this fluffy snow piling up quite nicely in a calm environment... but in this wind the snow isn't able to build any loft. Down in town it was like an inch or two of wind-packed snow. I couldn't get a good measurement down in Stowe village because it was all scoured or drifted... cars were blown clean with drifts on the lee side. I'd guess we didn't get more than 1-2" down in town though. Still, it was enough to whiten up the dirty snowbanks so that's appreciated. Not just wind affected once it lands...remember high winds wreck the dendrite development.... So...looking at thursday fri...and thinking about the snow pack...my real issue is whether we get much rain. There is clearly a ton of snow down so 3-48 hours above freezing isn't going to do that much. Certainly not going to destroy the mountain snowpack. If however it gets really wet I'm curious how it freezes up once the front passes through on saturday...will it go to a block of ice or will it sorta dry out friday then freeze up. That's really the question.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Not just wind affected once it lands...remember high winds wreck the dendrite development.... So...looking at thursday fri...and thinking about the snow pack...my real issue is whether we get much rain. There is clearly a ton of snow down so 3-48 hours above freezing isn't going to do that much. Certainly not going to destroy the mountain snowpack. If however it gets really wet I'm curious how it freezes up once the front passes through on saturday...will it go to a block of ice or will it sorta dry out friday then freeze up. That's really the question.... Yes, that is definitely the question. However, I did just have a run that involved thigh deep new snow in Tres Amigos woods... Hayride was swept clean and all the snow ended up in the woods next to it. Came back in to get my camera as you can get some really, really nice pow shots in the drifted in woods today. I think 2-4" is accurate for the lower half of the mountain as far as new snow goes. However, given about 4" in somewhat sheltered areas at 2,600ft... I could imagine closer to 6" up higher given the elevational distribution I'm seeing on the lower mountain. I completely agree with Bolton Valley's 4-6" seeing as their base elevation is over 2,000ft and I'm finding about 4" on average just above that elevation. Given that it was raining at the base area here yesterday while it snowed at the top, I bet we actually have a wide range of like 2-6" from base to summit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 1.1" as of 0630 this morning. My board is pretty sheltered from the wind, so I think that is a pretty accurate reading. That sounds about right... I was figuring greater than 1", less than 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I had 24 at my 9 PM obs time with thin clouds. That will be my high for the 2/15 obs, though tomorrow aft may not get past the mid teens. Didn't work out that way, as sometime overnight the temp rose to 32. I'm guessing it was shortly after the house-creaking winds hit just before 10 PM. Down to 7 when I headed in for work; we'll see if it makes 15 this afternoon. Snowpack holding at 22". The stat weenie in me dislikes when solidly frigid days are "observationally" corrupted by the previous evening's reading. Perhaps the worst example is 3/6/07, when the incredible (for March) -2 afternoon high gets lost in the 19F reading of 9 PM the previous night. (Though Christmas 1980 is a contender, having 9F at 9 PM on Christmas Eve, then aft high of -16 for the 25th, with gusts past 40.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Yes fellas I think we are setting up for another good run. Eric you have 22? I have 23. You were getting screwed for a while, so good to see your pack so high. Roofs cleared? Mine is but the melting has turned my 300 ft driveway into an absolute ice rink. Can't even walk the dog, she just slips. I hate this phase...we get it every winter. Need some freshies soon! Mark, We look like we are sitting good over the next couple of weeks, My only concerns would be a strong -NAO, That could shift things further south but right now it looks to be weak and short term so that could still work out well up this way, My snowpack is at 24" here so we are all in the same range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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